Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? (2024)

By 2040, homeowners will look vastly different than they do today. Nationally, homeownership rates will drop from 64.7 percent to 62.2 percent, but future homeownership rates will vary considerably between states. The overall number of new homeowners will increase by 6.9 million from 2020 to 2040, also with significant variation across states. Nearly all the increase in homeowners will come from households of color (defined in the data as any race or ethnicity other than white), but the growth will be very different for different racial and ethnic groups across states.

We produced three sets of state-level rankings to show what homeownership will look like in the future and the implications it could have for the housing market.

2020 homeownership rates and what we can expect by 2040

In 2020, West Virginia had the nation’s highest homeownership rate (74.2 percent), followed by Iowa, Vermont, Maine, Delaware, Wyoming, Minnesota, Idaho, and Michigan, with homeownership rates around 72 percent. The District of Columbia, New York, and California had the lowest homeownership rates.

Unsurprisingly, the states with the lowest homeownership rates had the most expensive housing (see the figure below). The average cost of a home in the five states with the lowest homeownership rates in 2020 was $525,973 versus $282,290 in the five states with the highest homeownership rates.

Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? (1)

The 2040 homeownership rate will be determined both by the current homeownership rate and future trends. The trends are different across states, so even though we forecast the two states with the highest homeownership rates will show a decrease and the areas with the lowest homeownership rates will show an increase, this pattern is not consistent.

Growth in homeownership by 2040

Though the number of US homeowners will grow slowly over the next 20 years, there will be considerable variations across states, with some states experiencing robust growth. The number of new homeowners is influenced by the overall number of households and the growth rate of the homeowner population. Thus, the states with the most new homeowners are generally large states with fast growth rates, putting Texas (the second-largest state with the sixth-highest growth rate) and Florida (the third-largest state with the eighth-highest growth rate) on top, with well over a million new homeowners from 2020 to 2040.

Meanwhile, states with a large number of households but slow growth will have relatively fewer new homeowners. For example, California is the largest state and ranks 29th for growth rate, with 366,680 new homeowners from 2020 to 2040. Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania top the list of states with the largest absolute declines in the number of new homeowners over the next two decades. These declines reflect either a decline in the number of new households (Illinois and New York) or very slow growth coupled with a decline in the homeownership rate (Pennsylvania), reflecting current trends.

Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? (3)

Homeowner growth among households of color by 2040

Nationally, net growth in the number of homeowners from 2020 to 2040 will be entirely among people of color, especially Hispanic households. We ranked the 10 states with highest homeowner-household increase among people of color. Texas is ranked highest, with an increase of more than 1.5 million homeowners of color; 67 percent of the increase will come from Hispanic households, 19 percent from Asian and other households, and 14 percent from Black households (“other” households include American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people). Georgia will experience a 51.4 percent growth rate among households of color, with 50 percent of the increase coming from Black households. Washington and New York will experience a significant increase in Asian and other homeowners. For these two states, 57 percent of the nonwhite homeowner increases will be from Asian and other families.

Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? (4)

Homeownership has important implications for the housing market

As federal and state policymakers tackle housing supply, affordability, ownership, and equity, they will need to remember that each state has a different starting point, factors, and trends, suggesting there is no one-size-fits-all policy prescription. Though all states will show considerable growth in the number of homeowners of color, suggesting the need for more affordable housing, states with large increases in the total number of homeowners will face particularly acute housing supply shortages. Those states will need to ensure zoning, permitting, and land-use processing will enable sufficient affordable housing production to meet the forthcoming demand. Our state-level fact sheets, which provide detailed information about future household formation and homeownership trends, are a great starting point.

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Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? (2024)

FAQs

Homeownership Will Look Much Different across States in 2040. How Does Your State Rank? ›

Thus, the states with the most new homeowners are generally large states with fast growth rates, putting Texas (the second-largest state with the sixth-highest growth rate) and Florida (the third-largest state with the eighth-highest growth rate) on top, with well over a million new homeowners from 2020 to 2040.

What is the future of home ownership in the United States? ›

The aging of the US population will cushion the drop in the overall homeownership rate because older households have higher homeownership rates. We project the overall homeownership rate will fall from 65 percent in 2020 to 62 percent by 2040.

What state has the highest homeownership rate? ›

Topline. California's 55.3% average homeownership rate in 2022 was the state's best since 2011 – but only Washington, D.C., at 42% and New York at 54% were lower. The highest ownership rates in 2022 were found in West Virginia at 79%, then Wyoming at 75%, Minnesota at 75%, Maine at 75% and Delaware at 75%.

What does current research suggest about the state of homeownership in the United States? ›

The homeownership rate in the U.S. was at 65.5% during the fourth quarter of 2021 and was not statistically different from the fourth quarter of 2020 (65.8%) or the third quarter of 2021 (65.4%). National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 5.6% for rental housing and 0.9% for homeowner housing.

What state has the lowest home ownership? ›

Only about 7 million of California's roughly 40 million residents own their homes, the lowest rate of home ownership in the United States, according to a new study. The study, conducted by Ruby Home Luxury Real Estate, analyzed U.S. Census data to determine the rate of home ownership across the country.

How long will American houses last? ›

The average life span of a house in the United States is about 50-70 years. Houses can last for decades if they are well-maintained and have been constructed with quality materials. A poorly built home may not last more than 20 years.

Is home ownership increasing in the US? ›

While the U.S. homeownership rate increased to 65.5% in 2021, the rate among Black Americans lags significantly (44%), has only increased 0.4% in the last 10 years and is nearly 29 percentage points less than White Americans (72.7%), representing the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.

What is the best state to live and buy a home? ›

10 best states for first-time homebuyers plus key factors
RankState1-year home price change: 2021–2022
1Pennsylvania4.1%
2North Carolina10.1%
3Utah5.8%
4Kentucky7.2%
6 more rows
Mar 2, 2023

What state has the most unaffordable housing? ›

According to worldpopulationreview.com, Hawaii is the most expensive state to live in, with its housing costing three times the national average. New York and California rank as the second and third most expensive states in which to live, respectively.

Which state in the US has the best housing market? ›

The combination of record-fast home value growth to start the year and a record number of newly built homes increased the total market value of residential real estate in the U.S. in 2022, despite price drops to end the year. California remains untouchable on its perch as the most valuable housing market in the country ...

Which states have housing crisis? ›

  • California, 978,000.
  • Texas, 322,000.
  • Florida, 289,000.
  • New York, 234,000.
  • Washington, 140,000.
  • New Jersey, 137,000.
  • Colorado, 127,000.
  • Arizona, 123,000.
Jul 21, 2022

When was the last housing crisis in the United States? ›

The United States subprime mortgage crisis was a multinational financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2010 that contributed to the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. The crisis led to a severe economic recession, with millions of people losing their jobs and many businesses going bankrupt.

What percentage of the US population owns their own home? ›

Top Home Ownership Statistics In America: 65.8% of Americans own a home as of 2022. Some 74 million Americans, or about 27%, live in a condo or HOA property.

Is home ownership in the US declining? ›

The decline in homeownership halted between: 2012 and 2016 for householders with less than a high school education (19.9% to 20.8%). 2016 and 2018 for those with a high school degree (30.8% to 31.4%).

What percentage of Americans never own a home? ›

64% of Americans own real estate. 35% of the American population does not own their own homes. Homeownership rates have increased to nearly 65% in the US since the 1940s.

Who is Californians for homeownership? ›

Californians for Homeownership is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization that works to address California's housing crisis by enforcing these laws and fighting unlawful policies that limit access to housing affordable for families at all income levels.

What type of house lasts the longest? ›

Stone and brick houses last the longest. If you are using wood, choose a hardwood for durability. A one-storey house will last longer because it is easier to maintain. Steel-frame techniques are also more durable for building houses than traditional stick-framing techniques and can last for 100+ years.

Why do old houses last longer? ›

Older homes were usually built with a higher caliber of solid building materials such as stone, brick, and solid wood. For example, wood in old houses was cut from “old growth”, which has proven to be more stable, durable, and more rot-resistant than today's wood.

How houses will be in 2050? ›

New homes in 2050 will be highly energy-efficient – featuring several ways of capturing, storing, and distributing energy. Due to climate change, homes will need to be more responsive to weather events. In addition, better cooling systems will ensure homes don't overheat in the potentially warmer summers.

Who owns the most houses in the US? ›

John Malone is the largest private landowner in the United States. Malone made his fortune as a media tycoon, building the company Tele-Communications, Inc, or TCI, and acting as its CEO before selling it to AT&T for $50 billion in 1999.

How many homes does the average person own in a lifetime? ›

In fact, the average person will own at least three houses in their lifetime. Living in one place for most of your life may or may not be your goal, but if it is, there are things you must do as a homeowner to ensure your home lasts as long as you'd like it to.

Who owns the most homes in the world? ›

Conclusion: The Catholic Church owns the most land, far more than McDonald's and billionaire Bill Gates.

What is the easiest state to live in financially? ›

Take a look at the 10 cheapest states to live in for 2022.
  1. Mississippi. Coming in as the cheapest state to live in in the United States is Mississippi with a cost of living index score of 83.3. ...
  2. Kansas. ...
  3. Alabama. ...
  4. Oklahoma. ...
  5. Georgia. ...
  6. Tennessee. ...
  7. Missouri. ...
  8. Iowa.
Mar 31, 2023

Where is the cheapest housing in the United States? ›

1. West Virginia. With a Zillow Home Value Index of $146,578, West Virginia is the most affordable state to buy a house in the US. Despite its low home prices, the state boasts natural beauty and outdoor recreation opportunities, making it an attractive option for homebuyers on a budget.

Where is the best place to own land? ›

The Top 9 Best States to Buy Land in 2021
  • Arkansas. ...
  • Tennessee. ...
  • Utah. ...
  • Arizona. ...
  • Oregon. ...
  • West Virginia. Enjoy the endless mountains and land for sale in West Virginia. ...
  • Kentucky. Land in Kentucky is its most valuable asset. ...
  • Texas. If you are looking to create a farm or a ranch, Texas is the state you should focus on.
Dec 8, 2021

What is the least affordable state to live in? ›

Here's the full list of the top 10 most expensive states to move to in 2023:
  • Hawaii (average house price: $636,400)
  • District of Columbia (average house price: $618,100)
  • California (average house price: $538,500)
  • Massachusetts (average house price: $398,800)
  • Colorado (average house price: $369,900)
Mar 20, 2023

What is the most unaffordable city in America? ›

1. Manhattan, New York
Cost of living:127.7% above U.S. average
Borough population:1,576,876
Median household income:$84,435
Median home value:$940,900
Unemployment rate:4.8%
Apr 15, 2023

What is the most expensive state to live in based on income? ›

Hawaii. Hawaii is truly a paradise, but it is also the most expensive state in America to live in. The cost of living in Hawaii overall is 86% higher than the national average, and the cost of housing in Hawaii is a jaw-dropping 207% above the national average.

What is the hottest real estate in the USA? ›

That's the takeaway from a new Bankrate analysis of nearly 200 housing markets around the country. The personal finance website ranked the top most attractive and active housing markets and found that Gainesville, Georgia, was No. 1.

What state has the hottest real estate market? ›

The hottest housing markets include those markets in North Carolina, Colorado and Texas that were also popular during the pandemic, including Raleigh and Durham, Denver and Austin. Markets to watch that improved the most between November and December 2022 include Portland, Oregon, Richmond, Virginia, and St. Louis.

Which 3 US states have the most vulnerable housing markets by far? ›

New Jersey, Illinois and California lead the nation with markets where properties are vulnerable amid a housing downturn and possible upcoming recession, according to a new report from real estate analytics company Attom.

Is the US headed for a housing crisis in 2023? ›

It's also worth noting that while foreclosure rates are up year-over-year, experts do not expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2023, even where home values are depreciating, as many homeowners have substantial equity due to progressive home price appreciation in recent years.

Who is most affected by the housing crisis? ›

Low-Income Households Are Particularly Affected by Unaffordable Housing. Households with the lowest incomes are by far the most likely to have housing costs that are unaffordable.

What happens to my mortgage if the economy collapses? ›

Recessions and housing market crashes may cause your house's value to decrease. However, your set mortgage rates won't lower, meaning your monthly payments will be higher than your home's worth. While many may dip into their savings to help pay the steep bills, others may need outside assistance.

What happens to my mortgage if the housing market crashes? ›

What happens to my mortgage if the housing market crashes? A housing market crash won't affect your existing fixed-rate mortgage. However, if the value of your home drops below your purchase price, then you'll be making payments that are greater than the worth of your property.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

How many Americans own their house free and clear? ›

The country with the highest free-and-clear homeownership rate in the list above was Lithuania at 83%. In the U.S., the free-and-clear homeownership rate was 23%. If free-and-clear homeownership is the American Dream, then apparently Lithuania and many other countries are living the American Dream.

How many Americans own their homes free and clear? ›

A third of California homeowners own their properties free and clear. Nearly 2.4 million homeowners across the state in 2021 had no property mortgage, the third highest among the states and Washington, D.C., the Orange County Register reported.

How many Americans own 2 homes? ›

How Many Homes in the U.S. are Second Homes? Through our analysis we found that there are at least 2.64 million second homes in the U.S. that are for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. How many homes are there in the United States?

What is the future of home ownership in the US? ›

The aging of the US population will cushion the drop in the overall homeownership rate because older households have higher homeownership rates. We project the overall homeownership rate will fall from 65 percent in 2020 to 62 percent by 2040.

Is the US housing market in trouble? ›

Are we in a housing bubble right now? While a housing price correction is expected, we aren't in a housing bubble. Demand for homes remains high, and there are fewer home sellers than there were in 2022. And while the market is cooling, experts don't expect an actual housing crash or a housing bubble burst in 2023.

Do most Americans own homes or rent? ›

Homeowner vs.

In the under-35 age group, 65% of American households are rented. Meanwhile, in the 65+ age group (senior citizens), 79.3% own a home. The median age of homebuyers is 47 years old, while the median age of renters is 38 years old. A whopping 64% of millennials who own homes regret their purchase of a home.

Are most American homeowners house poor? ›

Nationwide, about 27.4% of homeowners — or more than a quarter — fall into the “house poor” category, according to the data. “Overall, 21% of cost-burdened homeowners have a household income of less than $75,000,” the report states.

At what age does the average American become a homeowner? ›

But is there a right age when these factors should be in place? And are these the factors Americans should consider when deciding to become a homeowner for the first time? In 2022, the average age of first-time homebuyers was 36, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is up from 33 in 2021.

Why is it so hard to own a home in America? ›

Not enough homes to buy

For a growing number of people, however, the dream of homeownership remains far out of reach. Inventory is near record lows and the number of sales at the more affordable end of the market is lower than last year because demand is totally outstripping supply.

What two California cities are home buyers fleeing? ›

SAN FRANCISCO - A new report has listed San Francisco and Los Angeles as the two top U.S. cities in which homebuyers were looking to leave.

How many blacks own homes in California? ›

The Black homeownership rate was even more worrisome at 36.8%, or 26.4 points below the rate for white households. However, Latino and Black households also saw large gains in homeownership between 2014 and 2019 (2.2 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively).

Where do Californians buy second homes? ›

Here are California's 10 hottest second home destinations.
  • Truckee. ...
  • Paso Robles. ...
  • Cathedral City. ...
  • Lucerne Valley. ...
  • Joshua Tree. ...
  • Mammoth Lakes. ...
  • La Quinta. ...
  • Carpinteria.
Jan 5, 2023

Is house price going down in 2023 in usa? ›

In 2023, the national annual median price for homes for sale is projected to rise by another 5.4%, which is less than half the pace seen in 2022.

What is the future of home buying? ›

Housing Market Forecast for California Metro Areas

Based on Zillow's data and CAR's data, the California housing market is expected to experience a slowdown in 2023 and 2024. According to Zillow, the average home value in California is $728,121, down 3.4% over the past year, and homes go pending in around 15 days.

Will house prices go down in 2024 usa? ›

BENGALURU, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices will decline less than previously expected this year before stagnating in 2024, despite widespread expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to property analysts polled by Reuters.

What happens if the US housing market crashes? ›

As prices become unsustainable and interest rates rise, purchasers withdraw. Borrowers are discouraged from taking out loans when interest rates rise. On the other side, house construction will be affected as well; costs will rise, and the market supply of housing will shrink as a result.

What percentage of Americans never buy a home? ›

64% of Americans own real estate. 35% of the American population does not own their own homes.

Will 2024 be a good time to buy a house? ›

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

Will 2023 be a bad time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

What to expect next from the housing market? ›

Mortgage Bankers Association: The trade group's latest forecast has U.S. home prices, as measured by the FHFA US House Price Index, falling 0.6% in 2023 and another 1.4% dip in 2024. It then expects national home prices to rise 2.1% in 2025. (Forecast updated on April 17, 2023).

Will 2025 be a good year to buy a home? ›

After falling in 2023 and 2024, home prices are predicted to plateau in 2025 before rising again at just above the rate of inflation. However, due to the spike in home values from 2020 through 2022 due to record-low mortgage rates, median sales prices will take at least until 2027 to regain the highs of mid-2022.

Is buying a house a good investment anymore? ›

On average, most homes appreciate or gain value at a rate of around 3.5% or 4% per year, which makes real estate investing a good way to increase your net worth.

How much is a downpayment on a 500k house? ›

For a $500,000 home, a 20% down payment would be $100,000. At a 5.5% rate, the monthly payment for this would be $2,940 (this includes taxes and insurance - scroll down to see how much local taxes can impact your monthly payment and may alter this number for you).

Will mortgage rates go down in 2023 or 2024? ›

Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.

Where are interest rates going in the next 5 years? ›

The predictions made by the various analysts and banks provide insight into what the financial markets anticipate for interest rates over the next few years. Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.

What will my house be worth in 2030? ›

House prices in the US have risen by 48.55% in the last ten years (from $173k to $257k) and if they continue to grow at this rate for another decade, the average US home will be worth $382k by 2030.

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