Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert (2024)

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Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert? ›

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is forecasting that mortgage rates will drop below 6% in the spring and summer months of 2023. She cites easing inflation and smaller rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as the reasons the drop is likely.

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.

It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

Economists believe that there might also be a modest recession. There is also speculation that inflation has peaked, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of the rate hikes. This would allow mortgage interest rates to fall to a predicted 5.5% by the end of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

If you wait for rates to fall, you could face higher home prices or miss out on your dream home. Rather than waiting for rates to fall, it may be a wise choice to purchase your home now and consider refinancing later.

Despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high, most housing market experts expect them to recede over 2024, assuming the Federal Reserve acts on its signaled interest rate cuts. However, whether mortgage rates fade enough to create a meaningful shift in home affordability remains uncertain.

Mortgage rates are expected to decline when the Federal Open Market Committee cuts the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

The bottom line. Today's elevated mortgage rate environment isn't preferable for homebuyers, but it doesn't mean that you should refrain from acting, either. If you discover your dream home, can afford the interest rate, find an affordable house, or have an alternative to rent, it can be worth it for you now.

Mortgage giant Fannie Mae likewise raised its outlook, now expecting 30-year mortgage rates to be at 6.4 percent by the end of 2024, compared to an earlier forecast of 5.8 percent.

Will mortgage rates go down to 3 percent? ›

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates too quickly, it could spur inflation, erasing all the work the central bank has done to curb increasing prices over the past couple of years. So, any rate cuts in 2024 are likely to be minimal and unlikely to result in mortgage rates dropping to 3%.

The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.

Today's 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.44% while a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.68%. Rates on 30-year jumbo mortgages are 7.16%.

Two-thirds of homebuyers (67%) are waiting for mortgage rates to drop before buying a home this year. Last year, an equal share of buyers said the same thing – but rates didn't budge. In fact, 67% of this year's buyers put off purchasing a home in 2023 because they were waiting for rates to fall.

(RTTNews) - Mortgage rates, or interest rates on home loans, dropped after it increased for four consecutive weeks, according to mortgage provider Freddie Mac (FMCC. OB). The 30-year FRM averaged 6.88 percent as of March 7, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 6.94 percent.

Yes. This is the best time to buy a house in California. With the current trend in the CA housing market, you'll find better deals on your dream home during Q2 2024. As per Fannie Mae, mortgage rates may drop more in Q2 of 2024 due to economic changes, inflation, and central bank policy adjustments.

Mortgage rates fell sharply to close out 2023, but have remained relatively stable at 7 percent so far this spring. As of March 27, the average rate on 30-year loans was 7.01 percent, according to Bankrate's survey of lenders.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.