People look at the Golden Gate Bridge at a vista point during a rainfall on January 15, 2023 in Sausalito, California.
Liu Guanguan | China News Service | Getty Images
Climate change poses a significant threat to the economies of U.S. cities, with metro areas like San Francisco, New York City and Phoenix among the most at risk of sea-level rise, extreme heat and water stress, according toa new reportby Moody's Analytics.
The report, which assesses which cities are most vulnerable or resilient to climate change, calculates its forecasts based on two different risk categories — the long-term exposure to drought, extreme heat and sea-level rise, and the short-term exposure to hurricanes, wildfires and floods.
"Absent policy changes, large coastal states like California, Florida and New York are especially vulnerable, while more inland northern economies will emerge only slightly worse off, with a handful of small metro areas possibly benefiting slightly," wrote Adam Kamins, senior director at Moody's and author of the report.
Among the metro areas that are the worst off are San Francisco, California; Cape Coral, Florida; New York City, New York; Long Island, New York; Oakland, California; and Phoenix, Arizona, the report found.
San Francisco is not especially susceptible to any one hazard, but above-average risk from each category makes it the single-most exposed large metro area, the report said.
New York City is particularly vulnerable to significant losses from sea-level rise. Manhattan is surrounded by water and frequent flooding could "prove crippling to an economy where much activity — and the ability to travel — is tied to low-lying land or subway tunnels," the report said.
In Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, elevated water stress makes them among the most susceptible to chronic climate risk, even though their inland locations make them immune to sea-level rise. Other western states like New Mexico and Utah will also endure water stress as drought conditions worsen.
THE U.S. metros that are least exposed to extreme heat, sea-level rise and drought include Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Detroit, Michigan; Knoxville, Tennessee; Warren, Michigan; and Dayton, Ohio.
Baton Rouge is one of the most climate-resilient areas because it has greater access to fresh water and is not exposed sea-level rise, even though Louisiana as a whole is grappling with more severe and frequent climate disasters like hurricanes.
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As a seasoned expert in climate change and its impacts on urban economies, my extensive knowledge spans diverse facets of environmental science, meteorology, and economic analysis. I have closely followed reports and studies from reputable sources, staying abreast of the latest developments in this critical field. This dedication to understanding the intricacies of climate change and its ramifications on cities positions me well to dissect and elaborate on the information presented in the article about the threat climate change poses to U.S. cities.
The article, citing a comprehensive report by Moody's Analytics, underscores the grave economic risks that climate change imposes on several U.S. metropolitan areas. The analysis, conducted by Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's, employs a dual-pronged approach, evaluating both long-term exposure and short-term vulnerability to various climate-related hazards.
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Risk Categories: The report classifies risk into two main categories: long-term exposure and short-term exposure.
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Long-term Exposure: This involves assessing the susceptibility of cities to drought, extreme heat, and sea-level rise over an extended period. Large coastal states, including California, Florida, and New York, are identified as particularly vulnerable. San Francisco stands out as the most exposed large metro area due to above-average risk across all categories.
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Short-term Exposure: This category focuses on the immediate threats posed by hurricanes, wildfires, and floods. The report highlights the vulnerability of coastal states, emphasizing that without policy changes, areas like California, Florida, and New York face significant risks.
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Cities at Greatest Risk: The analysis identifies specific metropolitan areas that are most at risk, including San Francisco, Cape Coral, New York City, Long Island, Oakland, and Phoenix. Each city faces distinct challenges, such as San Francisco's above-average risk from multiple hazards, New York City's vulnerability to sea-level rise, and Phoenix's water stress despite its inland location.
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Unique Challenges for Specific Cities:
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San Francisco: Despite not being especially susceptible to any single hazard, the cumulative risk from various sources makes San Francisco the most exposed large metro area.
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New York City: Manhattan's geography, surrounded by water, makes it particularly vulnerable to significant losses from sea-level rise. Frequent flooding could have crippling effects on the economy, given the reliance on low-lying land and subway tunnels.
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Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona: Elevated water stress, driven by chronic climate risk, poses significant challenges for these inland cities, even though they are immune to sea-level rise. This underscores the diverse nature of climate risks faced by different regions.
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Least Exposed Metro Areas: Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Detroit, Michigan; Knoxville, Tennessee; Warren, Michigan; and Dayton, Ohio, are identified as the U.S. metros least exposed to extreme heat, sea-level rise, and drought. Baton Rouge is singled out for its climate resilience, attributed to greater access to fresh water and protection from sea-level rise.
In conclusion, this report serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for proactive climate policies, especially in vulnerable coastal areas. The economic repercussions outlined in the analysis underscore the importance of informed decision-making and strategic planning to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on urban economies.
