Great Lakes levels are likely to see continued rise in next three decades (2024)

FAQs

Great Lakes levels are likely to see continued rise in next three decades? ›

According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.

New research using the most advanced regional climate modeling systems finds that the baseline lake level for Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron and Erie are expected to rise by roughly 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050 as a result of climate change.

Over the last few decades, water levels have declined slightly for most of the Great Lakes (see Figure 1). The past few years, however, have shown notable increases toward the top of the historical range. Since 1995, average surface water temperatures have increased slightly for each of the Great Lakes (see Figure 2).

That study found Lake Superior is expected to rise on average by 7.5 inches while levels on the Lake Michigan-Huron system is projected to increase 17 inches by 2050 due to climate change.

Lake levels are governed by precipitation, runoff and evaporation, an equation that's extremely difficult to forecast over six months, let alone over several decades, according to scientists.

"New research using the most advanced regional climate modeling systems finds that the baseline lake level for Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron and Erie are expected to rise by roughly 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050 as a result of climate change," researchers at the American Geophysical Union wrote in a 2022 report.

At-risk communities in the Great Lakes are becoming more vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding, drought, and increases in urban heat islands.

Climate projections anticipate more hot days, longer mosquito seasons, increased air pollution and declining ice coverage on the Great Lakes. Tiger Dams in Detroit's Jefferson Chalmers neighborhood were installed by the city. Picture Michigan in 2050.

Threats to the Great Lakes' ecosystems, include invasive species, climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction. Climate change affects water temperatures, weather patterns, and lake levels. Pollutants from residential, agricultural, and industrial areas reduce water quality.

The Great Lakes are freshwater ecosystems. Traditionally, Lake Michigan, for example, has been a very low-salt lake, with levels around one milligram of chloride per liter of water. Over the years, due to our increased salt use, that level has steadily but gradually climbed up to 15 milligrams per liter.

What refills the Great Lakes? ›

Although the total volume in the lakes is vast, on average less than 1 percent of the waters of the Great Lakes is renewed annually by precipitation, surface water runoff, and inflow from groundwater sources.

Waste, sewage and fuel residue creating a toxic environment for Great Lakes' fish and wildlife.

Population growth, lifestyle changes, development, and agricultural practices will contribute to an increasing demand for water during the next 20 years. Global water use is likely to increase by 20 to 50 percent above current levels by 2050, with industrial and domestic sectors growing at the fastest pace.

Lake Superior declined 2 inches from November 30, 2022 to December 30, 2022. This is a fairly typical amount of water decline for December. It represents what sounds like a bunch of water: one inch of water on Lake Superior equally 550 billion gallons of water.

Lake Ontario, the lowest of the Great Lakes, sits 246 feet above sea level. It (and the other four Great Lakes at elevations of 571 feet for Lake Erie, 577 feet for Lakes Michigan/Huron and 600 feet for Lake Superior) will not be affected by rising oceans, whose rise will be only about one foot by the year 2100.

According to the average of their simulation ensemble, by 2040–2049, the average annual water levels of Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are projected to increase by 0.19, 0.44, and 0.28 m, respectively, relative to 2010–2019 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.

Although the total volume in the lakes is vast, on average less than 1 percent of the waters of the Great Lakes is renewed annually by precipitation, surface water runoff, and inflow from groundwater sources.

If a climate event like a polar vortex curbs evaporation, then lake water levels can rise drastically. “The ocean is getting warmer, the atmosphere is getting warmer, the oceans are evaporating more and the atmosphere can carry more of that water to the Great Lakes” in the form of precipitation, he notes.

The Great Lakes region has a lower risk of extreme weather compared to other parts of the country. Southern and western states are most vulnerable. They are the most likely to continue to experience sea level rise, drought and other social and environmental stressors, in the Environmental Defense Fund model.

It indicates that the lake is improving after falling to a record low in 2022. "It's still not healthy, but it's closer to healthy than we have been anytime since 2019," Steed said. "We're really happy to (potentially) get there this year."