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Your Indispensable Guide Through the Global Recession
November 22, 2022 | Report
The economic outlook for the United States for 2023 has deteriorated under the weight of high inflation rates and rapid monetary tightening. Falling consumer and business confidence, softening consumption and investment, and geopolitics-induced energy shocks are likely to tip the economy into recession around the turn of the year. However, the recession is projected to be short and mild, amid a strong labor market and relatively heathy consumer and business balance sheets. Beyond 2024, the US economy is likely to return to its slowing trend growth rate trajectory. Key risks around the longer-term US outlook are related to geopolitical frictions, environmental challenges, labor markets, and inflation. For the full 10-year outlook with risks, and deeper insights for what’s ahead, click the "Download Research Report" button below.Imminent US Recession to Be Followed by Slower Economic Growth
Insights for What’s Ahead
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Global Economic Outlook 2023: Euro Area Edition
Recession in the Short Term Gives Way to Weaker Growth in the Longer Term
Global Economic Outlook 2023: China Edition
Current Property Market Downtrend Redirects the Economic Outlook in the Coming Decade
Global Economic Outlook 2023: Asia Edition
Asia as an Ever More Important Growth Engine for the Global Economy
Charts
Preliminary November PMIs show no change in DM growth momentum
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
Charts
Global Business Cycle Tracers
Business cycle tracers are analytical tools to visualize where the economy is and where it is headed.
Charts
How high will unemployment go? The US unemployment rate forecast
While a US recession appears to be imminent, it will not look like any other in recent history.
Charts
Political and government stability top of mind for US CEOs
CEOs’ views of current and future economic conditions remain pessimistic as they prepare for near-inevitable US and EU recessions.
Charts
Risks to US outlook are tilted to the downside
The US economy appears to be on the precipice of recession.
Charts
US CEOs say they are preparing for a brief and shallow recession
Measure of CEO Confidence declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022 and has hit lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Publications
Webcasts, Podcasts and Videos
Press Releases / In the News
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Increased in November
November 28, 2023
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the U.S. Declines Again in October
November 20, 2023
BRIEF POST
October retail sales slip as economy starts to cool
November 15, 2023
BRIEF POST
Inflation continued to moderate in October
November 14, 2023
BRIEF POST
Fed keeps rates steady… for now
November 01, 2023
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in October
October 31, 2023
As an expert in global economic analysis and trends, I bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to dissect the information provided in the article "Global Economic Outlook 2023: US Edition" from The Conference Board. My in-depth understanding of economic indicators, financial markets, and global economic conditions enables me to provide a comprehensive overview of the concepts discussed.
The article highlights key insights and predictions for the economic landscape of the United States in 2023 and beyond. Here are the critical concepts covered in the article:
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Imminent US Recession: The report suggests that the economic outlook for the United States in 2023 has deteriorated due to high inflation rates and rapid monetary tightening. Factors such as falling consumer and business confidence, softening consumption and investment, and energy shocks induced by geopolitics are expected to lead to a recession around the turn of the year.
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Short and Mild Recession: Despite the projected recession, the article anticipates that it will be short and mild. This outlook is attributed to a strong labor market and relatively healthy consumer and business balance sheets.
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Longer-Term Outlook: Looking beyond 2024, the US economy is expected to return to a slowing trend growth rate trajectory. Key risks to the longer-term outlook include geopolitical frictions, environmental challenges, labor markets, and inflation.
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Inflation Expectations: The article emphasizes that inflation is expected to remain above pre-pandemic trends for several years. Supply and demand factors are identified as contributors to the current wave of high inflation.
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Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's role in addressing inflation is highlighted, noting that interest rates are not expected to fall until 2024 or later. The Federal Reserve has rapidly tightened monetary policy and is projected to continue raising rates into early 2023.
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GDP Growth Recovery: Following an expected near-zero growth in 2023, the article anticipates a recovery in US real GDP growth in 2024. However, over the next decade, growth is expected to be somewhat muted relative to pre-pandemic trends.
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Factors Affecting Growth: The disruptions caused by the pandemic are expected to have lasting effects on the drivers of US growth. While there will be smaller contributions from labor due to an aging demographic, the article suggests that the acceleration of digital transformation and investments in infrastructure may result in elevated total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the next decade.
By delving into these concepts, I provide a nuanced and informed perspective on the economic outlook for the United States in 2023 and the factors shaping its trajectory.
