The last three weeks have seen Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, along with the other19 Eurozone countries, sink into recession. Slowly, the global recession warnings given by the IMF, theWorld Bank, and many economists are beginning to come true.
Amidst all this, one of the world’s largest economies,China, is at a crossroads.
China's 'Balance Sheet Recession'
bfifinance
Recent data is so dismal that narratives on the mainland have shifted quickly from whether to stimulate the economy to finding ways to do it.Chinais entering a strange economic aberration that its policymakers are not used to.
It is exhibiting what some fear is a "balance-sheet recession," in which, rather than maximising profit, people are busy minimising debt.
While the cost of borrowing comes down, consumers still do not end up buying big-ticket items in such a scenario and thus prefer using their savings to speed up payments on existing mortgages instead. Companies in such a scenario are not investing for the future either, as per a Bloomberg report.
The term balance sheet recession was coined by Taiwanese-American economist Richard Koo (who is also the chief economist of Japan's Nomura Research Institute).The term describes a situationin which household and business assets collapse in value. This is believed to severely damage their balance sheets, forcing them to save more while consuming and investing less, in turn causing an economic contraction.
Also Read:India Has Zero Probability Of Slipping IntoRecession, Reveals Survey
Recent Steps Taken By The Chinese Govt
istock
So far, it's fair to say that the Chinese government’s policy fixes are modest at best. Last week, some of the biggest banks lowered their deposit rates, widely seen as a prelude to a small lending rate cut as soon as June 15. The central bank cut its short-term policy rate by a dismal 10-basis point to 1.9% last Tuesday. Policymakers are also poised to extend tax incentives for electric vehicle purchases in the hope of boosting industrial production.
One can understand why Beijing is being gun-shy. As per the report, too many solutions have been offered in the public sphere, with some verging on self-serving and imaginative. Ren Zeping, a prominent economist, suggested that "cornerstone investors," such as social security funds, deploy more money in the stock market to create a wealth effect and boost consumer confidence.
Last year, the economist was banned from social media for saying China should dispense 2 trillion yuan ($280 billion) in helicopter money to solve its low birth rate problem. China needed to inject this liquidity soon, before women born between 1975 and 1985, who still believed babies were a blessing, became infertile and couldn’t have children, he said.
Further, the government knows quantitative easing and stimulus checks never benefit society equally. Who gets what and how has become a hot-button political issue.
China's Debt Nearly Three Times Its GDP
shutterstock
Consider infrastructure spending, which China has reliably used in the past to stimulate the economy. With the nation’s debt hovering at around three times its gross domestic product(GDP), Beijing needs to be more cautious and launch only projects with decent returns.
Is it better to build high-speed railways in the western desert or construct hyperloops around Shanghai and then transfer some of the wealthy city’s tax remittances to its poorer cousins? In some parts of China, such as the impoverished Guizhou and Yunnan provinces, local authorities get roughly only one dollar of fiscal revenue for every three dollars spent, the report mentioned.
Also Read:How Germany'sRecessionCan Impact Indian Economy
How Real Estate Sector Has Become A Headache For The Country
Consider infrastructure spending, which China has reliably used in the past to stimulate the economy. With the nation’s debt hovering at around three times its gross domestic product(GDP), Beijing needs to be more cautious and launch only projects with decent returns.
Is it better to build high-speed railways in the western desert or construct hyperloops around Shanghai and then transfer some of the wealthy city’s tax remittances to its poorer cousins? In some parts of China, such as the impoverished Guizhou and Yunnan provinces, local authorities get roughly only one dollar of fiscal revenue for every three dollars spent, the report mentioned.
Also Read:How Germany'sRecessionCan Impact Indian Economy
How Real Estate Sector Has Become A Headache For The Country
getty
How to stabilise real estate, which accounts for as much as one quarter of the economy, presents another headache for China.
A recent report by CNBC revealed that Wall Street banks have warned thatweakness in China’s real estate sector could be a drag on the economy for years to comeand could even impact countries in the wider region.
Various timid, piecemeal policies, such as the easing of home-purchase restrictions in less prosperous cities, have not achieved much. In the first four months of this year, there were even fewer real estate projects under construction than last year.
PerhapsChinacan go back to shantytown redevelopment, which boosted home sales in smaller cities, thanks to the 3 trillion yuan from the central bank between 2015 and 2018? That would benefit the poorer segment of society but could also violate President Xi Jinping’s mantra that "housing is to be lived in, not speculated on."
Meanwhile, as per the Bloomberg report, conventional methods seemed to have lost their effectiveness. There’s plenty of liquidity in the financial system. M2, a broader measure of money supply, has been growing in double digits since April 2022. But there’s been little growth and no inflation.
So basically, anystimulus measures that can meaningfully turn China around are also fraught with political landmines. Recently, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body has skipped publishing its meeting statements on three separate occasions, only piquing investors’ interest in the possible topics discussed. China’s most powerful 24 men seem to be at a loss.
Also Read:Why BRICS Nations Are Creating A New Currency
For the latest and more interesting financial news, keep readingIndiatimes Worth.Click here
