Division Rankings: Why Rich Strike might not be a 1-hit wonder (2024)

To say that Rich Strike crashed the Kentucky Derby party isan understatement.

Race favorite Epicenter and highly regarded Zandon hadput three lengths between themselves and the rest of the field in the ChurchillDowns stretch, so the race was going to come down to these two, right?

The No. 21 horse had other ideas. I write No. 21 because that is who crossed the wire to most observers, not Rich Strike.

Rich Strike stole the Kentucky Derby show at the last possible moment. The last 10 seconds, to be exact.It was an astonishing last 10 seconds that sent most fans scurrying to their race programs to see what the name of the horse was who crossed the wire first.

Rich Strike, a horse few had heard of before the KentuckyDerby, and whose name was called just once by the race caller early on, stunnedthe racing world with one of the biggest upsets in Thoroughbred racing history.This is not hyperbole, but I will get into that more below while alsoexplaining why I think Rich Strike might not be a one-hit wonder.

First, let’s look at this week’s updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1.Olympiad.A winner in last weekend's Alysheba Stakes (G2), this guy has quietly put together four wins in a row, three of which are graded. I put him here at the top because if the season ended today, he would have to be voted the Eclipse winner. Country Grammer and Hot Rod Charlie haven't even run in the U.S. this year. While some of the others are still sidelined after races overseas, Olympiad figures to pad his resume even more in the coming months, with the Whitney (G1) as his next major goal in early August at Saratoga. Trainer Bill Mott says he will likely get one race prior to the Whitney engagement.

2.Country Grammer. Sensational in both of his starts overseas, he was a facile winner of the Dubai World Cup (G1). Before that, he was a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1), his first start in nine months. The hope is to bring him back for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar late this summer. Still, he hasn't run in this country yet this season and that matters. Could drop in the coming weeks.

3.Express Train.Ran one of his best career races two weeks ago in the Californian (G2), but he was beaten by Stiletto Boy. He gained more respect from me with that effort, if anything. Now 2-for-3 on the season, he is in the best form of his career.

4.Hot Rod Charlie.Struggling midway through the Dubai World Cup, he looked to be in serious trouble but gathered himself and ran a solid second on a day where he might not have been his best. If the Breeders' Cup Classic were held today, he would be the second betting choice. Like Country Grammer, he figures to be sidelined for another couple of months. He too could drop in the coming weeks.

5.Life Is Good.A textbook example of a horse who, while very good at eight to nine furlongs, just wasn't the same when stretching out to 10 furlongs. That was the fear here all along with this guy. He had a clear lead in the stretch of the Dubai World Cup but faded in the last 200 yards to finish fourth. He most certainly will cut back in distance moving forward in an attempt to get back to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

Next 5:Stiletto Boy, Warrant, Speaker's Corner, Mandaloun, Last Samurai.

Older dirt females

1.Letruska.Repelled challenges from Ce Ce and Clairiere in the Apple Blossom (G1) but had enough in the tank to hold on for a 1 1/4-length win. The winner of both of her starts this season, she will run next in the Phipps (G1) stakes on Belmont Stakes day at Belmont Park.

2.Clairiere.Ran very well when runner-up to Letruska. She looks to have upped her game from last season and is a real player now in this division. She too will point for the Phipps Stakes on Belmont Day.

3.Pauline's Pearl.Won her first Grade 1 last week in the La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs, clearly has raised her game now at age four. Could face the top two next time out in what is shaping up as another stellar edition of the Phipps Stakes.

4.Ce Ce.Letruska and Clairiere were too much last out in the Apple Blossom, and I suspect she will be back sprinting before long.

5.Malathaat.Made her first start of the season in the Doubledogdare Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. I am still not convinced she can be the fastest in this division.

Next 5:Search Results, Shedaresthedevil,Blue Stripe, Bonny South,Royal Flag.

3-year-old males

1.Epicenter. Stays here at No. 1 despite his Kentucky Derby runner-up effort. In fact, that runner-up effort only solidified his position here even more. His only loss prior to the Derby in his last five starts was a neck loss in the Lecomte (G3) earlier this season. Connections have stated he will wheel back in the Preakness and he will strictly be the horse to beat.
2.Zandon. The Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner ran very well in the Kentucky Derby, where he made a nice run from the back of the pack, but he did hang a bit in the stretch to finish third. I get the feeling that 10 furlongs might be a bit too far for him to show his best.
3.Rich Strike. Simply put, his win in the Kentucky Derby was the biggest upset I have ever seen at any level in this sport. There are many factors that weigh into that statement, and while many believe this guy is a one hit wonder, not so fast. Horses mature at different times and some more rapidly than others. The Kentucky Derby was his first start on dirt this season and he again will be an underdog in the Preakness.
4.Mo Donegal. The Wood Memorial (G2) winner ran well in the Derby but was 10 wide around the second turn before he made his late run to finish fifth, a neck back of Simplification in fourth. Will now await the Belmont.
5.Taiba. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner finished 12th in the Ky. Derby but he didn't run that bad, considering it was only his third start and he was close to the record pace early on. Will skip the Preakness but will make his presence known in the coming months.
Next 5:Simplification, White Abarrio, Jack Christopher, Messier,Early Voting.
3-year-old females

1.Secret Oath. Was much the best in the Kentucky Oaks, coming with a powerful run to circle horses on the turn. Before that she was third against the boys in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and now will try the boys again in next week's Preakness Stakes. A tough ask for sure, but she could get a piece underneath given that the Preakness is coming up somewhat top heavy.
2.Echo Zulu. She gained much respect with her solid run in the Kentucky Oaks, where she conceded the early lead to a long shot while attending solid early fractions only to begrudgingly give way at the end to finish fourth, beaten a length for the runner-up spot. She will be very tough next out in the Acorn (G1) on Belmont Day.
3.Nest. Somewhat of an underlay in the Kentucky Oaks, she had no excuses in her runner-up finish. She likely will head to the Acorn as well.

4.Kathleen O. Suffered her first loss when fifth in the Kentucky Oaks, but she hardly disgraced herself. She was beaten only fourth lengths for all the marbles.
5. Desert Dawn. The Santa Anita Oaks (G1) winner came to run on Oaks Day and finished well to be third to the winner, Secret Oath.

Next 5:Adare Manor, Eda, Ju Ju's Map, Tarabi, Hidden Connection.

Turf males

1.Golden Pal. Finally reaches this top spot, and it's deserved. Was dominant in his 2022 debut last out at Keeneland, a win in the Shakertown (G2). TheBreeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner from last season now will head to Royal Ascot.

2.Colonel Liam. He found the waters a bit too deep in the Dubai Turf (G1), where he finished ninth. Previously he ran huge in defending his Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and seemed better than ever despite his long layoff. There is a wide gap between grass horses in this country and overseas.

3.Gufo. Always highly regarded, he hasn't really lived up to expectations as of yet, but he surely started his 2022 season off right with a facile two-length win in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream. Will run next in the Man O' War Stakes (G1) this weekend at Belmont Park.

4.Smooth Like Strait. Ran a decent third in his first start of 2022 in the Makers Mark Mile (G1), losing by a nose and a neck. I won't lie, I expected him to win the race. Still feel he is top five in this division.

5. Santin.Lightly raced, this 4-year-old won his first Grade 1 last weekend in his sixth career start. The Turf Classic win at Churchill Downs comes after a runner-up effort in a Grade 2 at the Fair Grounds.

Next 5: Shirl's Speight,Domestic Spending,Channel Maker,Count Again, Mira Mission.

Turf females

1.Regal Glory. Has to move to No. 1 based on her season thus far, a win in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3) and now her last win in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland over a strong field.

2.War Like Goddess.Won her 2022 debut impressively, picking off horses to win by open lengths in last week's Bewitch Stakes (G3). Tough-luck loser of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall, she still is among the best in this division and could be back on top with a win next time out. Could a race against males in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont Day be in the cards for her next start?

3.Going Global.Won six graded stakes last season as a 3-year-old filly. Hasn't left her home state of California since arriving in this country in late 2020 but will have to if she aims to contend for an Eclipse this season. Returned a few weeks ago with a win in the Royal Heroine (G2) at Santa Anita and will run next in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita later this month.

4.Shantisara. Was a strong runner-up to the No. 1 ranked Regal Glory in the Jenny Wiley (G1). Before that she was a winner of three stakes in a row.

5. Bleecker Street. This filly is unbeaten in six starts and already has won three graded stakes this year. Last weekend she won the Modesty (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Next 5:Speak of the Devil, In Italian,Leggs Galore,Going to Vegas,Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1.Jackie's Warrior.The Eclipse winner from last season was dominant in theChurchill Downs Stakes (G1)where he defeated several ranked below. Before that he made short work of theCount Fleet Sprint (G3) at Oaklawn. Now 2-for-2 on the season, there is a wide gap between him and any other sprinting on the dirt.

2.Golden Pal.Could contend for this Eclipse if he keeps things going. Simply dominant as turf sprinter, he heads to Royal Ascot next after his facile win in the Shakertown at Keeneland.

3.Speakers Corner.Has won all three of his starts this season, with the Carter (G1) his latest win last time out. His connections will point to the Met Mile (G1) for his next start on June 11.

4. Reinvestment Risk.Runner-up to Jackie's Warrior three times in his career, the latest being the Churchill Downs Stakes last time out. Before that he was runner-up to Speakers Corner in the Carter (G1) at Aqueduct.

5.Dr. Schivel.Ran a good third in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1) in his first start of 2022. Previously he disappointed in the Malibu (G1), but given what he did in 2021, he deserves this spot for now. Will return in late July at Del Mar.

Next 5:Aloha West, Brickyard Ride,Cezanne,Special Reserve,Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1.Obligatory. She beat the best in this division except for Ce Ce last out in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs with a strong closing kick. Now 2-for-2 on the season, she has found home sprinting.

2.Just One Time. The beaten favorite in the Derby City, she finished third with no excuses. Previously this season she won the Madison (G1) at Keeneland and the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream.

3.Edgeway. Ran the worst race of her 12 race career last out in the Derby City Distaff, finishing sixth, beaten over seven lengths. Previous to that she won the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita.

4.Ce Ce. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner was beaten by Merneith in her first start of 2022, the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. Two starts back she stretched out to win the Azeri (G2) at 1 1/16 miles but failed against Letruska in the Apple Blossom at that same distance.

5.Bell's the One. Ran her race in the Derby City but finished a neck out of third. She was a good runner-up in the Madison (G1) before that and is still among the best in this division.

Next 5:Four Graces, Kimari,Glass Ceiling,Private Mission, Kiss the Girl.

Rich Strike’s remarkable Kentucky Derby story has capturedthe attention of the country.It is a true underdog story, much more than the50-1 Mine That Bird in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. In fact, there is no comparisonbetween the two.

Mine that Bird was a graded-stakes winner and won four racesin a row in his juvenile season; he even ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Although he was a long shot, he was ridden by a top jockey in Calvin Borel.

Rich Strike had won one race from seven starts, a $30k maidenclaimer by 17 lengths. He had never run in a graded stakes on the dirt. Hisjockey, Sonny Leon, has ridden in over 5,000 races, and the Kentucky Derby washis first graded stakes win. The trainer, Eric Reed, has had over 9,000starters, and the Kentucky Derby was just his second graded stakes win. Folks, theimprobability of this win can’t be overstated enough.

Now the question is, can Rich Strike do it again next weekin the Preakness?

If I am being honest, no. But like most of you, I am surelyrooting for him.

Getting back to his Derby win, much has been made about histrip where jockey Sonny Leon weaved him through traffic to get him to the wirefirst. Much has been made about how Epicenter was the “best” horse in the race becausehe was near the record pace that was set and still had enough to be there until the end. Although some of that might be true, it was Rich Strike who was the besthorse in the race, in my opinion.

Rich Strike ran 58 feet farther than Epicenter and 71 feetfarther than Zandon. In fact, he ran farther than 16 other horses in the race. RichStrike's Peak Speed (44.2 mph) is the fastest in a Kentucky Derby on Trakus(2011-present) by nearly 1 full mph. No other horse hit 43 mph peak speed in thelast 12 Kentucky Derby’s. Rich Strike’s top speed of 44.2 mph was two milesfaster than any other horse in the field.

What does all this mean? To me, it is clear: He was the besthorse in the race by quite a margin. Was he aided by the fast pace? Sure, butso were several other highly regarded contenders.

"Richie," as he goes by in the barn, strolled into Churchill Downs like he owned the place despite thefact that he wasn’t even supposed to be there. He torched the favorites in the homestretch. Then immediately he wanted to pick a fight with outrider Greg Blasi andhis pony, who were there to escort Rich Strike to the winners circle.

It was a surreal scene, one that hasn’t been seen beforeon a stage like the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Eric Reed said after the race thatRich Strike had never had a horse come to him after a race, so he wasn't usedto it. It made him mad, according to Reed, and he didn't want anything to dowith it. Reed went on to say that the outrider saved Rich Strike frominjury by preventing him from getting loose. While the optics of that eventwere not good for obvious reasons with the world looking on, Rich Strike settleddown and made his way to the winners circle.

Now it’s on to the Preakness where Rich Strike will try to continue this remarkable story. If he gets the job done in Baltimore, theleadup to the Belmont Stakes will be extraordinary.

Next week I will get into myPreakness thoughts and Rich Strike’s chances. But for now, I am still enjoyingthis win by Rich Strike. And even though I didn’t cash a single ticket on thisyear’s Kentucky Derby, I came away happy with what I witnessed.