Debriefing 7th June and Today's Journal - @Trading Balance (2024)

• Money markets wager onOvernight Session More 200 basis points of ECB rate hikes by May 2023.
• Turkish foreign minister: I see a will to return to negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
• France’s Finance Min. Le Maire: The inflation peak bound is to last several more weeks, maybe several more months.
• Eurozone Money Markets now price in 75 BPS of ECB rate hikes by September, vs around 70 BPS onOvernight Session More Friday.

Today’s Data

Yesterday’sMarket Profile and Price Action Debrief

Trend, Short Covering, 7 Day Balance

H 4164 L 4077.75 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4134 VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 4126 CLOSE 4156.75

Realistic Targets Given Current ATR

UPSIDE: 4183 | 4200 | 4220 | 4250| 4274 | 4303

DOWNSIDE: 4134| 4120| 4107 | 4098 |4080 |4962| 4050| 4032| 4015 |4000|3987

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

ON Update

6.40 CT German & US Benchmarks Yields look to be heading up again after yesterday’s P profile short-covering rally. Short covering tends to be weak and liquidation may resume. The same idea applies to all markets. With the ECB acting tomorrow and US CPI onOvernight Session More Friday, there is plenty for markets to look forward to. Stay Alert!

07:00 CT Today is a relaxing day before the ECB, I will mostly be reading and will forgo taking too many trades today. I want o to be well prepared for ECB. Check out the weekly analysis link onOvernight Session More top for some reading material for the event. Will be trading BTP, and Bunds for this one so coverage for ES may be limited over the next 24hrs.

S&P500 futures in 7-day balance. Look to fade the extremes and don’t be greedy. The market is awaiting new info so be ready because when balance breaks that’s when you get paid. Patience and preparedness #ES_F #daytrader #MarketProfile #SPY $SPY #tradingstrategy #TradingSignals

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) onOvernight Session More June 8, 2022.

Opening Bell

14.30 We are opening at the bottom of the ONOvernight Session More Lows located at the prior days VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More a key reference point. Wanting to see if we get an early adjustment from the Overly short inventory off the open and if so targets ar the other side of ONOvernight Session More balance.

14.30 Seen a push through ONOvernight Session More lows but a lack of follow-through sees a reversal to test the ONOvernight Session More high where we again find resistance pulling back to just below the middle of the range and then a firmer test into the opening swings high at 4135.

This is a seesaw market and typical into OPEXOptions typically have monthly expirations, but CME has rece... More a( next week) but also typical into larger events. ~ECB tomorrow and CPI Friday. Yield near the high of the day with 10 years pushing above 3%.

Waiting for a change! Be ready, Observe the Highs and Lows of the 7-day balance,

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) onOvernight Session More June 8, 2022.

12:00 CT Seller absorbed all buying activity at the upper end of balance extremes (that was the plan) we saw a push briefly breach the prior close to form a high at 4160, but after repeated attempts to break above and long hold, longs liquidated back to break the IB LOWThe lowest value that is printed from the opening 1 hour of ... More. *

Key Info here is that when we are trading balance non-excess highs and lows don’t really matter. All they show is weak participants unable to breach. In this environment you only want o be fading the extremes!

The ket to day moves and the opportunity came when there was a final push to retake the day’s highs and break the IBInitial balance in the futures is traditionally the first ho... More to the upside but sellers quickly pushed them back down. Spotting that onOvernight Session More the tape gave you a great opportunity with limited risk. Check out the footprint chart below if you missed it.

Using footprint charts, Trade Breakdown S&P500 Futures S:4156.75 exit 4125.75

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) onOvernight Session More June 8, 2022.

OK Guys that’s a wrap for me. Debrief will be early or tonight, I will be all over the ECB meeting.

Trade Well and Prosper, BT

Quote Of the Day

“The price of a commodity will never go to zero. When you invest in commodities futures, you are not buying a piece of paper that says you own an intangible of the company that can go bankrupt.”–Jim Rogers.

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT

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