As the great Texas Migration continues, search data from a national moving company shows where in the state those incoming residents hope to land.
The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area is the big winner, according to a report from moveBuddha, which measured the number of people looking to move into each city versus moving out in the first half of 2022. Of the 20 Texas cities with the highest in-to-out ratios, eight of them were around DFW.
Only four were around Houston, and three near Austin, with one outside San Antonio and four that weren’t near any major metro.
Prosper, north of Dallas, had the highest ratio, with more than two and a half times as many people searching for a move to that city than residents looking to move away. The next two cities in the ranking were Winters, deep in the center of the state, and Mcallen, down on the border. No. 4 was the Austin suburb of Leander, and the DFW suburb of Euless rounded out the top five.
Some parts of Texas are seeing growing interest among potential relocators, according to the report, while others are starting to lose their shine.
Leander saw the biggest increase in interest with a 128.6 percent jump in its in-bound search ratio from 2021. Fort Worth marked a 71 percent increase and McKinney, north of Dallas, had a 62.6 percent rise, followed by Houston’s Sugar Land and Spring suburbs rounding out the top five with increases of 57 percent and 45.7 percent, respectively.
Cities that are losing their luster include Houston’s Pearland, which experienced a 34.5 percent drop in interest from 2021, the DFW suburbs of Plano and Frisco, which had drops of 38 percent and 46.5 percent, respectively, and Austin’s Cedar Park, which saw a drop of more than 45 percent. But potential movers soured most on the capital city suburb of Round Rock, which suffered a nearly 104 percent plunge in its inbound search ratio over the past year, according to the report.
Despite some parts of the DFW metro area recently flipping to a buyer’s market at the high end, most parts of the North Texas market still have a limited inventory of more affordable homes. That tight inventory, coupled with persistent demand, has driven up home prices beyond what many locals can afford.
Homes on average across the DFW metro were about $501,000 as of March 22, according to the report, and some cities like Prosper have reached average home prices as high as $828,000 — a significant jump from just two years ago. But what’s unaffordable to locals can still look like a bargain to someone from out-of-state.
About 24 percent of all queries for moves to Texas in the first half of 2022 came from California, where home prices are even higher than in the Lone Star State.
“Looking purely at queries for moves into the most popular city, Prosper, 40% are from California,” said moveBuddha’s Kristen Klepac.
The average home price in comparable California cities is $1.2 million, she noted, while the average home price in Prosper is “only” $828,000 — a 44 percent discount.
Read more
As someone deeply entrenched in migration patterns and real estate trends, I can easily decipher the nuanced data presented in the article you mentioned.
The piece illuminates the ongoing Texan migration, notably into the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metro area, as per moveBuddha's report for the first half of 2022. This influx is substantiated by search data indicating an inbound movement surpassing outbound relocations. Specifically, eight of the top 20 Texas cities with the highest in-to-out ratios were in the proximity of DFW, reinforcing its allure for incoming residents.
Cities such as Prosper, situated north of Dallas, exhibited remarkable ratios, indicating more than double the interest from individuals seeking to move in compared to those planning to depart. Similarly, other locations like Winters, Mcallen, Leander, and Euless demonstrated significant appeal, reflecting shifting preferences among potential relocators.
The data further illustrates dynamic changes within Texas's urban landscape. While certain regions experienced a surge in interest, exemplified by Leander's substantial 128.6% increase in inbound search ratios, others faced declining attractiveness. Notably, areas like Pearland, Plano, Frisco, Cedar Park, and Round Rock witnessed decreased interest, with Round Rock notably suffering a drastic 104% plunge in inbound search ratios.
Factors contributing to these shifts in migration trends extend beyond mere curiosity. Affordability emerges as a crucial determinant, particularly in the context of housing markets. Despite certain parts of the DFW metro area transitioning to a buyer's market at the higher end, the overall inventory of reasonably priced homes remains limited. This scarcity, coupled with sustained demand, has propelled home prices to levels surpassing local affordability.
The escalating home prices in DFW, averaging around $501,000 across the metro, with peaks reaching $828,000 in cities like Prosper, underscore the relative attractiveness to out-of-state movers, particularly from California. Approximately 24% of migration queries to Texas originated from California, where housing costs notably surpass Texan averages. This contrast, highlighted by moveBuddha's Kristen Klepac, showcases Texas, even with its soaring home prices, as a more affordable alternative for Californians eyeing relocation.
The intricate interplay between migration patterns, housing market dynamics, and regional preferences within Texas paints a vivid picture of the ongoing shifts in the state's urban fabric. This continuous evolution serves as a testament to the complex interdependencies shaping migration and housing trends in the Lone Star State.
