Crypto Market Cycle Timing & Price Framework (2024)

Just a Godel on the internet sharing thoughts - NFA

Hello.

In this article I will be sharing a variety of metrics, thoughts, and a general framework for making a best guess(es) on time & price for the the crypto market generally, as well as my favorite crypto within it, BEAM (buildonbeam).

My general opinion remains that price targets are personal, they should necessarily differ from person to person depending on unique goals inherent to the individual (short/long/mid) - Realistically, no one knows what price any asset will reach at any given timeframe, the best we can do is leverage commonly available data to make well-informed guesses.

With this article, I hope to empower readers to think for themselves. This thread should be looked at as a resource or springboard for conducting your own research vs an excuse for doing none.

Basic Metrics

I personally like to emphasize basic TA (long timeframe) + a ‘Logarithmic growth curve ‘ projection as an over-arching backdrop to form any guesses on the basis of cycle time & price.

The upper bounds of the LGC correlate to a possible BTC cycle top of 150k-200k$ peak-bull (2.618 - 3.618 fib), and a potential 60-80k$ bear-bottom buy zone re-accumulation. These are not conclusive figures, but simply line up with what price could reach if historical trends are respected. To be determined.

Important to Note: I do not subscribe to the 4 year crypto cycle theory, I believe future cycles will continue to be more erratic, glued to a multitude of factors as the Bitcoin 'halving' continues to play less of a role in supply/demand curves + public interest and speculation over time.

I believe whatever proverbial 'top prices' are reached in this cycle, there is a strong potential to far exceed them in subsequent cycles, albeit at an increasingly irregular and unpredictable rate.

As Bitcoin goes, so does too the rest of the crypto market.

Cycle Peak timeframe considerations

The following are a few decent bellwethers that I like to use to assess potential crypto cycle peaks. These are ‘flashlights in the dark’, none are fool-proof.

a) Coinbase top app in app store - Confluence for overextended mkt, retail interest

→ COINAppRankBot

b) Pi cycle indicator on BTC - The Pi Cycle indicators is composed of the 111 day moving average (111SMA) and a 2x multiple of the 350 day moving average (350SMA x 2) of Bitcoin's price. This metric shows when BTC becomes significantly overheated (the shorter MA reaches the levels of the larger MA), and has historically been a good indicator for cycle tops

→ Glassnode PiCycleTop

c) MVRV-Z Score - MVRV Z-Score identifies periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to 'fair value'.It uses three metrics: Market Value (black line), Realised Value (blue line), and Z-score (orange line).

→ LookIntoBitcoin MVRV-Z

d) Bitcoin 200 Week Moving Avg Heatmap - This indicator uses a color heatmap based on the % increases of that 200 week moving average. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a good time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. Periods where the price dots are purple and close to the 200 week MA have historically been good times to buy.

→ Coinglass 200WMA

e) Mayer Multiple - The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin Price by the 200 day moving average of the price. A log transform and then a 4-year z-score can also be applied.

→ WooBull Mayer Multiple

Anecdotal /Psychological:

• A Post- Halving timeframe

• Meme coins taking off & general astronomical exhaustion

• Friends & fam interested in crypto again

• Folks flashing wealth online, general 'co*ckiness' (psychological/group euphoria)

• Talks of folks quitting their jobs & starting a fund etc; luxurious vacations, cars, purchases are shown online (show & tell)

  See Also

  Will The Cryptocurrency Market Crash In 2023? 10 Risk Factors | Trading EducationThe Bitcoin and Crypto Market Cycles: What You Need to KnowBitcoin News: In 40 Tagen verändert sich alles - ВusinessinsiderBull cycle may last a year despite post-halving Bitcoin drop: interview with Gracy Chen

• Markets, just as people, like Round numbers. ~150k or ~200k price points on BTC (congruent w/ 2.618 & 3.618 fib), ETH at 10k, 12k, 15k etc

• ~6-8T+ crypto global tot. mkt cap

• Top ~100 cryptos @/above/around ~3b mkt cap (2.5x+ multiple from last top)

• ‘Gut Feel’

Overall, I like to go by the motto simple is best. Too much over analyzing of data leads to paralysis by analysis. Gut feel / muscle memory formed over yrs of time-in-mkt should be respected over fallible charts & metrics, but they have their place.

BEAM - A Gaming Powerhouse

BEAM is a top player in the crypto gaming space, and a coin I follow closely.

My long term view has been (& will continue to be) that $BEAM will be one of a handful of 'chosen' coins that survives long term in the crypto space, cycle-to-cycle, due to its strong financial position & treasury model that feeds-back positive ROI continuously.

This model introduces demand for the native token without the need for Key Opinion Leaders, bought & paid ‘shillers’ or any other artificial or short-lived hype that many seemingly popular cryptos require to reach ever higher valuations. BEAM (& the Merit Circle DAO that underpins it) lives or dies based on the success of new & innovative web3 games, in essence, sustainable revenue vs. hype.

Simply put, if you are bullish on the future of gaming, & crypto’s place within it, you are bullish on BEAM.

Beam Price, Metrics & Treasury (as of 3/8/2024)

• Price: 0.0392$

• Current supply: ~52.3b

• Total supply: ~62.5b

• Mkt cap: ~2.05b

• FDV: ~2.33b

The Merit Circle treasury dashboard can be leveraged to track treasury metrics over time: Merit Circle Treasury Dashboard

A real-time readout of the current BEAM circulating supply can also be found here: BEAM real-time circ. supply.

Accounting for future burns

Referencing BurnBeam.com, we can see that apprx. 37.4% of $beams supply has been burned to-date thus far.

With the current pace of supply burns, it may be appropriate to adjust for a lower supply (& thus, market cap) when calculating future price projections. In an effort to remain conservative, we will omit any potential future burns in our supply calculations.

Setting floor expectations using Last cycle top

By using Coinmarketcap historical prices as a benchmark from last cycle (CMC Last Cycle Top 100 snapshot), we can derive some guesses for potential future prices.

To model projections for this cycle, we will apply a conservative multiplier weighting of ~2.5x. By applying a 2.5x weight, we are assuming alts in the top 100 will achieve a valuation apprx. 2.5 times greater than in the height of the prior cycle. I encourage you to play around with different weights depending on your own assumptions.

Note: Below projections assume a constant supply (see current supply).

Framework calculations

Considers an altcoin top 100 floor set at ~3b market cap for the current bull cycle (~2.5x multiple from last) | Mkt Cap/Price benchmark as of 3/8/2024:

→ Rank #100 :-

[1.189b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~3b fl.); Assign weight of 1.46x (3b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 1.46x = ~3b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 1.46x = ~0.057$

→ Rank #80 :-

[1.711b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~4.25b fl.]); Assign weight of 2.07x (4.25b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 2.07x = ~4.24b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 2.07x = ~0.081$

→ Rank #60 :-

[3.02b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~7.55b fl.]); Assign weight of 3.68x (7.55b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 3.68x = ~7.54b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 3.68x = ~0.14$

→ Rank #40 :-

[5.379b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~13.44b fl.]); Assign weight of 6.55x (13.44b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 6.55x = ~13.42b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 6.55x = ~0.256$

→ Rank #30 :-

[7.159b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~17.89b fl.]); Assign weight of 8.72x (17.89b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 8.72x = ~17.87b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 8.72x = ~0.341$

→ Rank #25 :-

[8.791b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~21.97b fl.]); Assign weight of 10.71x (21.97b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 10.71x = ~21.95b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 10.71x = ~0.419$

→ Rank #20 :-

[12.39b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~30.97b fl.]); Assign weight of 15.1x (30.97b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 15.1x = ~30.95b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 15.1x = ~0.591$

→ Rank #15 :-

[15.72b last cycle fl. * ~2.5x multiple = ~39.3b fl.]); Assign weight of 19.17x (39.3b/2.05b):

▪ Mkt Cap: ~2.05b * 19.17x = ~39.29b

▪ Price: $0.0392 * 19.17x = ~0.751$

Or said another way:

• if $BEAM reaches top <30 this cycle, it would have a price of 0.34$+.

• if $BEAM reaches top <20 this cycle, it would have a price of 0.59$+.

Reminder: These figures assume no changes to supply (market cap derived thereof) and a conservative 2.5x cycle weighting vs last.

I believe future cycles will likely see whole digit BEAM prices. TBD.

BEAM Ecosystems players

More risk, potentially more reward.

I frequently post about games & other alts within the BEAM ecosystem. These players typically leverage the $BEAM network directly for their infrastructure, or have been invested in by the Merit Circle DAO in some significant way (or otherwise).

These ecosystem alts may offer more reward, but w/ higher inherent risk - It's up to the individual investor to determine the level of risk they'd like to assume in their portfolio, everyone will be different.

Succinctly put, I see BEAM as a low risk, high reward proposition/investment.

You can view important metrics for BEAM network coins here: BeamSwap Pools.

At the end of the day, it's up to us to do our own homework, write down our own goals, and prepare for whatever outcome we may wish to pursue.

Please use this as a resource for your research, but not as a substitution for conducting your own. None of this is financial advice.

♐ Key Takeaways …

Overall, I believe the crypto market has a solid chance of achieving the following benchmarks in the current bullish phase/cycle:

• BTC: ~150k$ (2.618 fib) or ~200k$ (3.618 fib)

• ETH: ~12k$ or ~15k$ (fueled by ETH ETF demand/speculation)

• A BEAM price > 0.30$

• A market cap floor of +/- ~3b for all top 100 cryptos

• A cycle 'peak' (temporary) around the late 2024 / early-or-mid 2025 timeframe

• Going forward, I think we have the potential to see a ‘whole digit’ BEAM price in future cycles (1-2yrs+), as they continue to become increasingly irregular & unpredictable in their timing.

• It's impossible to predict with exact specificity what a 'top' price may be for any given coin, as it is a factor of supply/demand at any given price in time.

• What we can do instead is make well-formed assumptions (best guesses) as to what the market -might- do, and our coin(s) of choice performance within that framework. The rest is up to us.

KG

Resources :

• Coinbase App Real-Time Rankings : https://x.com/COINAppRankBot

• MVRV-Z Score : https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

• Bitcoin PiCycleTop : https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.PiCycleTop

• Coinglass BTC 200 Weekly MA Heatmap : https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/200WMA

• WooBull Mayer Multiple : https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/

• Merit Circle Treasury Dashboard :

  https://treasury.meritcircle.io/

• Beam Real-Time Circulating Supply data feed : BEAM real-time circ. supply

• BurnBeam Beam Burn Tracker App : BurnBeam.com

• BeamSwap Pool (Beam network native tokens): https://www.geckoterminal.com/beam/beam-swap/pools

• Coinmarketcap Top100 historical snapshot: https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/

• Crypto Study Discord : https://discord.gg/htbCBfUBcS