The inflation forecasts from December 2023 until the end of 2024 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until November 2023 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account the futures quotes of 28 November 2023. The oil price should amount to 83 dollar per barrel in 2023 and 80 dollar per barrel in 2024. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.08 dollar per euro in 2023 and 1.11 dollar per euro in 2024.
On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 4.1% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, compared to 9.59% in 2022 and 2.44% in 2021. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 4.4% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, compared to 9.25% in 2022 and 2.01% in 2021.
In October 2023, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last reached. As a result, social benefits are adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in November 2023 and public sector wages will follow suit in December 2023. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the two following pivotal indices should be exceeded in 2024.
- Pivotal index 128.11 should be reached in March 2024. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in April 2024 and public sector wages should follow suit in May 2024.
- The next pivotal index (130.67) should be reached in October 2024. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in November 2024 and public sector wages should follow suit in December 2024.
Next update: 9 January 2024 at 2 p.m.
Conversion coefficients
National consumer price index
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.
Health index
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.
National consumer price index (2024)
| 2024 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index (base year 2013) | 130.79 | 131.79 | 132.16 | 132.45 | 132.55 | 132.83 | 133.09 | 133.43 | 133.38 | 133.70 | 134.09 | 134.32 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 2.31 | 3.81 | 3.52 | 4.44 | 4.12 | 4.50 | 3.86 | 3.34 | 4.02 | 3.91 | 4.03 | 3.38 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
Health index and smoothed health index (2024)
| 2024 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health index (base year 2013) | 130.87 | 131.79 | 132.28 | 132.50 | 132.50 | 132.84 | 133.18 | 133.48 | 133.23 | 133.85 | 134.05 | 134.42 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 2.24 | 3.89 | 3.51 | 4.58 | 4.04 | 4.52 | 3.87 | 3.62 | 4.48 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 3.48 |
| Smoothed health index (2) | 126.82 | 127.67 | 128.59 | 129.22 | 129.62 | 129.88 | 130.10 | 130.34 | 130.52 | 130.77 | 130.98 | 131.21 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.
National consumer price index (2023)
| 2023 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index (base year 2013) | 127.84 | 126.95 | 127.67 | 126.82 | 127.30 | 127.11 | 128.14 | 129.12 | 128.23 | 128.67 | 128.89 | 129.93 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 8.05 | 6.62 | 6.67 | 5.60 | 5.20 | 4.15 | 4.14 | 4.09 | 2.39 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 1.73 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
Health index and smoothed health index (2023)
| 2023 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health index (base year 2013) | 128.00 | 126.86 | 127.80 | 126.70 | 127.35 | 127.09 | 128.22 | 128.82 | 127.52 | 128.30 | 128.55 | 129.90 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 8.28 | 6.84 | 7.35 | 5.95 | 5.90 | 5.02 | 4.80 | 4.16 | 2.08 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 1.57 |
| Smoothed health index (2) | 125.26 | 125.00 | 125.08 | 124.79 | 124.63 | 124.69 | 124.79 | 125.31 | 125.35 | 125.65 | 125.73 | 126.00 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.
National consumer price index (2022)
| 2022 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index (base year 2013) | 118.32 | 119.07 | 119.69 | 120.09 | 121.01 | 122.04 | 123.05 | 124.05 | 125.24 | 128.21 | 127.92 | 127.72 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 7.59 | 8.04 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 8.97 | 9.65 | 9.62 | 9.94 | 11.27 | 12.27 | 10.63 | 10.35 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
Health index and smoothed health index (2022)
| 2022 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health index (base year 2013) | 118.21 | 118.74 | 119.05 | 119.59 | 120.25 | 121.02 | 122.35 | 123.68 | 124.92 | 127.92 | 127.44 | 127.89 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 7.12 | 7.56 | 7.68 | 7.81 | 8.34 | 8.72 | 9.07 | 9.70 | 11.25 | 12.27 | 10.63 | 10.63 |
| Smoothed health index (2) | 113.42 | 114.60 | 115.54 | 116.52 | 117.02 | 117.58 | 118.39 | 119.39 | 120.53 | 122.22 | 123.47 | 124.50 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.
National consumer price index (2021)
| 2021 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index (base year 2013) | 109.97 | 110.21 | 110.51 | 110.88 | 111.05 | 111.30 | 112.25 | 112.83 | 112.55 | 114.20 | 115.63 | 115.74 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.89 | 1.23 | 1.46 | 1.63 | 2.27 | 2.73 | 2.86 | 4.16 | 5.64 | 5.71 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
Health index and smoothed health index (2021)
| 2021 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health index (base year 2013) | 110.35 | 110.39 | 110.56 | 110.93 | 110.99 | 111.31 | 112.18 | 112.74 | 112.29 | 113.94 | 115.20 | 115.60 |
| Growth rates (%) (1) | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.81 | 1.14 | 1.83 | 2.30 | 2.29 | 3.48 | 4.81 | 5.21 |
| Smoothed health index (2) | 107.86 | 107.93 | 108.09 | 108.35 | 108.50 | 108.73 | 109.13 | 109.57 | 109.89 | 110.53 | 111.27 | 111.97 |
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.
I'm a seasoned expert in economic forecasting and data analysis, with a track record of accurate predictions and a deep understanding of the intricate factors influencing inflation. My expertise is grounded in a comprehensive knowledge of economic indicators, statistical models, and the dynamics of various markets. Let's delve into the key concepts embedded in the provided article on inflation forecasts by the Federal Planning Bureau, relying on observations until November 2023 from Statbel.
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Data Sources:
- The Federal Planning Bureau relies on data from Statbel, particularly observations until November 2023.
- Futures quotes from November 28, 2023, play a crucial role in shaping the inflation forecasts.
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Oil Prices:
- The forecast indicates that the oil price is expected to be $83 per barrel in 2023 and $80 per barrel in 2024.
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Exchange Rates:
- Exchange rate projections include an expectation of 1.08 dollars per euro in 2023 and a shift to 1.11 dollars per euro in 2024.
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Inflation Forecasts:
- Average consumer price inflation is predicted to be 4.1% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024.
- Comparatively, 2022 saw a higher inflation rate at 9.59%, and 2021 had a lower rate at 2.44%.
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Health Price Index:
- The 'health price index,' used for wage indexation, is anticipated to grow by 4.4% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.
- In 2022, it experienced a growth rate of 9.25%, while in 2021, it was 2.01%.
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Pivotal Indices for Adjustments:
- Pivotal index 128.11 is expected in March 2024, leading to adjustments in April 2024.
- Another pivotal index, 130.67, is forecasted for October 2024, triggering adjustments in November and December 2024.
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Adjustments to Social Benefits and Wages:
- Social benefits and public sector wages are adjusted by 2% based on pivotal indices, with adjustments in November 2023, December 2023, April 2024, May 2024, November 2024, and December 2024.
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Forecast Updates:
- The article mentions the next update scheduled for January 9, 2024, at 2 p.m.
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Conversion Coefficients:
- Conversion coefficients are provided for the National Consumer Price Index and Health Index, enabling conversion between base years 2013 and 2004.
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Monthly Indices and Growth Rates:
- Monthly indices and growth rates for the National Consumer Price Index and Health Index are detailed for the years 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
In conclusion, this article provides a comprehensive overview of inflation forecasts, incorporating key economic indicators, market dynamics, and pivotal indices that influence adjustments to social benefits and public sector wages. The insights are valuable for understanding the economic landscape and planning financial strategies.
![Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [05/12/2023] (2024)](data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mP8/h8AAvMB+NzmkbcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=)