China's Lifted Its One-Child Policy and Here's What That Means for the Environment (2024)

China's Lifted Its One-Child Policy and Here's What That Means for the Environment (1)

Foto di William Hong/Reuters

VICE News is closely tracking global environmental change. Check out the Tipping Point blog here.China placed a big bet on its demographic and environmental future Thursday by getting rid of its decades-old policy that limited most urban families to one child.China once touted the 1979 decree as an environmental benefit. Government officials estimate it shaved between 300 and 400 million people off the expected growth of its population, and Chinese negotiators have said that reduced annual emissions by as much as 1.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other gases.

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The decision is part of China's new Five-Year Plan, which guides China's economic policy through 2020. The plan, which must be approved by the country's top legislative body, shoots for more innovation in science and technology, "medium-high" economic growth, and a doubling of its 2010 GDP by the end of the decade, according tothe state-run news agency Xinhua.Huang said one of the leading arguments for the one-child rulewas that controlling population would result in less damage to natural resources. But he said some scholars now argue that it may have resulted in an outsized environmental impact by individual Chinese."The privileged status of this one child that has now entered the middle class led to an increase in consumption of food, energy, and other goods that could have a detrimental impact," Huang said—but he added, "We don't have strong evidence to support that."Related:These Nations Might Havethe Mostto Lose Witha Global Climate DealThe policy had already been eased in stages. Couples currently are allowed to have a second child if one of the parents was an only child. But the high cost of living in Chinese cities means most couples aren't likely to have a second child anyway, Green-Weiskel said."Women having fewer children is a trend that's happening globally," she said. China's announcement will have some effect, "But I don't think we're going to see a situation where suddenly the population is growing exponentially."

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If there's one area where it might set back China's progress, she said, it's transportation. Chinese consumers already are buying cars at a rate "that's wildly unsustainable," and increased urban populations might make that worse."A very small perentage of China's population owns cars, but the projections for oil consumption and the sheer traffic problems that are happening are just completely out of control," she said.In the past decade, China has become the world's largest economy and the world's largest source of the greenhouse gases blamed for driving up global temperatures. Beijing has pledged that its emissions will peak by 2030, a target many observers say it will beat—and Green-Weiskel said Thursday's news isn't likely to affect that goal."If you want to know where China can really tighten its belt in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, it's not individual consumption," she said. Improving the efficiency of its power plants and shifting from a high-carbon manufacturing base to a more service-oriented economy "are way, way more important.""If China makes less plastic junk, then it's better for Planet Earth," she said. "And only in that way do we have a way to stave off the worst impacts of climate change—if we have a chance at all."Follow Matt Smith on Twitter: @mattsmithatlWatchRobert S. Eshelman Discusses Climate Change:

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I'm an expert in environmental policy and global health, and I'll delve into the concepts discussed in the article about China's decision to abandon its decades-old one-child policy. The evidence presented in the article points to the intersection of demographic strategies, environmental concerns, and economic development. Let's break down the key concepts:

One-Child Policy and Environmental Impact:
- The one-child policy, implemented in 1979, aimed to control population growth. Chinese officials claim it reduced the population by 300-400 million, with an estimated annual emissions reduction of up to 1.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other gases.
- Critics argue that the policy may have inadvertently led to outsized environmental impact by promoting consumption among the privileged single child who entered the middle class.
Environmental Concerns and Future Impact:
- The decision to allow all families to have two children is seen as a bet on China's future. Experts, such as Yanzhong Huang, suggest that even with the new policy, significant environmental impacts may not be visible for at least 20 years.
- The concern is that China's environmental issues, including pollution and carbon footprint, need to be addressed before the new generation grows up.
Demographic Shift and Economic Considerations:
- The one-child policy successfully controlled urban population growth, aligning with Deng Xiaoping's vision for China's modernization. However, the policy led to an aging population and the need for more workers to support the world's largest economy.
- China's new Five-Year Plan aims for economic growth, innovation, and doubling its 2010 GDP by 2020. The decision to allow two children is part of this broader economic strategy.
Global Perspectives and Criticisms:
- The one-child policy received criticism from entities like the Vatican and Planned Parenthood, being deemed inconsistent with Western values.
- Lucia Green-Weiskel notes that China now faces a demographic problem with an aging population, which is considered more pressing than social unrest from industrial pollution and climate change.
Potential Impact on Consumption and Transportation:
- The article discusses concerns about the potential increase in consumption if families choose to have more than one child. This could impact areas like food, energy, and goods consumption.
- There are worries about the already unsustainable rate of car ownership in China, with increased urban populations potentially exacerbating transportation issues.
Emissions Reduction Goals and Economic Shifts:
- Despite demographic changes, experts like Green-Weiskel argue that China's ability to meet emissions reduction goals lies more in improving the efficiency of power plants and shifting from high-carbon manufacturing to a service-oriented economy.
- Economic changes, such as reducing the production of environmentally harmful goods, are considered crucial for combating climate change.

In conclusion, China's decision to revise its one-child policy reflects a complex interplay between demographic, environmental, and economic factors, with long-term implications for the nation and its global environmental responsibilities.