China’s $23 trillion local debt mess is about to get worse (2024)

FAQs

What is the local debt of China? ›

In 2021, a remote coal town in northeastern China was forced to undergo an unprecedented financial restructuring. Its struggles since are an ominous sign for Chinese President Xi Jinping as other heavily indebted municipalities look set to follow suit.

The US owes so much money to China because of the large trade and investment deficit the US currently has with China. This deficit is the result of a combination of factors, including rising wages and technology costs in the US, slow growth in the US economy, and US policies that favor the import of goods from China.

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

It's simple. For years, what the U.S. government spent on those things was far greater than the amount of money it had brought in to pay for them. That stacked up to that $31.4 trillion in debt we have now.

Who owns China debt? Most of China's local government debt, one of the most regular issuers of domestic debt, is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China's local governments have relied on off balance sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).

So if the U.S. cannot pay its creditors, interest rates on U.S. debt would go up, creating a cascade of higher interest rates. So mortgage rates, credit card rates, car loan rates. All would become more expensive. Finally, there is a real concern about the economy — that a default could spark a recession.

Since the U.S. dollar has a variable exchange rate, however, any sale by any nation holding huge U.S. debt or dollar reserves will trigger the adjustment of the trade balance at the international level. The offloaded U.S. reserves by China will either end up with another nation or will return back to the U.S.

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Domestic Holders of Federal Debt

The Federal Reserve, which purchases and sells Treasury securities as a means to influence federal interest rates and the nation's money supply, is the largest holder of such debt.

Trade Embargo

Foreign creditors are often influential in their home country. Hence after default, they convince their countries to impose trade embargos on the defaulting nations. These embargos block the inflow and outflow of essential commodities into a nation thereby choking its economy.

Who owes the US money? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan surpassed China as the top holder in 2019 as China shed over $250 billion, or 30% of its holdings in four years. This bond offloading by China is the one way the country can manage the yuan's exchange rate.

Raising taxes can generate revenue that the government can use to pay down debt as well as invest in programs that support the economy. But it can cut into tax revenue and hurt the economy if the government raises taxes too high. Finding the correct balance is expressed by a concept known as the "Laffer Curve."

The federal government runs a budget deficit whenever its spending exceeds tax collections and other revenue. To make up the difference, the U.S. Treasury sells treasury bills, notes, and bonds. The national debt is the aggregate of the federal government's annual budget deficits, minus the rare surpluses.

Flashpoints that greatly contributed to the debt over the past 50 years include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic -- the latter two prompting sweeping stimulus measures from Congress that cost trillions of dollars.

Overall, Chinese government debt is now equivalent to 102% of its GDP, the analysts estimated. That debt ratio is still lower than America's, which is currently about 122%, based on its national debt and GDP in 2022, but China's has grown at a staggering rate, more than doubling from 47% in 2016.

Is Bank of America Partly Owned by China? No, Bank of America is not partly owned by China. It is an American bank.

Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial. Below are some of these options.

The US doesn't actually have to pay off its $31 trillion mountain of debt, according to top economist Paul Krugman, hitting back at the idea that government finances can be compared to household balance sheets in an op-ed weeks before the US possibly defaults on some obligations.

How likely is the US to default? ›

There's just a 2% possibility the U.S. government will default on its loans, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank, despite days of stalled-out negotiations.

How much does Russia owe? About $40 billion US in foreign bonds, about half of that to foreigners. Before the start of the war, Russia had around $640 billion US in foreign currency and gold reserves, much of which was held overseas and is now frozen.

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

“[The US data] shows that Chinese investors have indeed shown a tendency to accelerate the reduction of US treasury bonds in 2022,” Zhang said in an article published earlier this month.

As of September 30, 2022: More than three-fourths of the federal government's total assets ($5.0 trillion) consist of: 1) $877.8 billion in cash and monetary assets; 2) $406.9 billion in inventory and related property; 3) $1.4 trillion in net loans receivable (primarily student loans); and 4) $1.2 trillion in net PP&E.

According to data published by London-based investment fintech Invezz, Japan, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and the US are the top five nations with the highest level of government debt.

Even so, in April 1938, the Nationalist government of China began to issue U.S.-dollar denominated bonds to finance the war against Japan's brutal invasion. Locked in a pitched battle for survival, the government issued these bonds into 1940.

For a long time, the biggest holder of U.S. debt was China. But did you know that in late 2016, Japan overtook China as the biggest foreign holder of U.S. debt? Japan and China are, by far, the two biggest holders of U.S. debt – but the top five is filled with countries that you might not expect.

The debt limit caps the total amount of allowable outstanding U.S. federal debt. The U.S. hit that limit—$31.4 trillion—on January 19, 2023, but the Department of the Treasury has been undertaking a set of “extraordinary measures” so that the debt limit does not yet bind.

The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse.

What happens if you don't pay your debt in America? ›

If you stop making your required payments on general consumer debts (like a line of credit, overdraft or credit card), your creditors will generally charge you a fee for defaulting on (missing) payments and start reporting those defaults on your credit history.

Americans' investments would take a major hit as stocks lose as much as a third of their value, wiping out around $12 trillion in household wealth, according to Moody's Analytics. The broadest economic impact of a US debt default would be a recession that would encompass the global economy, including sharp job losses.

As of December 2022 (estimated), the intragovernmental debt was $6.18 trillion of the $31.4 trillion national debt. Of this $6.18 trillion, $2.7 trillion is an obligation to the Social Security Administration.

The U.S. debt is the total federal financial obligation owed to the public and intragovernmental departments. The U.S. national debt is so big because Congress continues both deficit spending and tax cuts.

To pay back one million dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 11.5 days. To pay back one billion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 32 years. To pay back one trillion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 31,688 years.

When was the last time the U.S. was debt free? January 1835 was the first and only time all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off, according to the Treasury Department.

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

China holds about $1 trillion of U.S. debt, about 3% of all U.S. debt outstanding.

Norway is the country with the highest level of household debt based on OECD data followed by Denmark and the Netherlands.

Does China own U.S. debt? ›

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.

China's debt is nearly 44% of its GDP and its local governments owe nearly $5.14 trillion.

Domestic Holders of Federal Debt

The Federal Reserve, which purchases and sells Treasury securities as a means to influence federal interest rates and the nation's money supply, is the largest holder of such debt.

China's economy has experienced remarkable growth in the last few decades, making it one of the world's largest and most influential economies.

Since the government almost always spends more than it takes in via taxes and other revenue, the national debt continues to rise. To finance federal budget deficits, the U.S. government issues government bonds, known as Treasuries.

The United States has the world's highest national debt with $30.1 trillion owed to creditors as of the first quarter of 2023. Washington's debt now stands at $31.4 trillion, raising further concerns about US government spending and borrowing costs.

China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Crisis Threatens Xi's Economy - Bloomberg.

A flurry of big spending packages and ballooning social welfare costs for a rapidly ageing population have left Japan with a debt pile 263% the size of its economy - double the ratio for the United States and the highest among major economies.