China - national debt 2018-2028 | Statista (2024)

As an enthusiast deeply entrenched in the field of economics and international finance, I bring to the table a wealth of knowledge and firsthand expertise to dissect the intricacies of the article on China's national debt. Over the years, my engagement with economic trends, policy analyses, and global financial landscapes has allowed me to develop a nuanced understanding of the subject matter.

Let's delve into the article published by Aaron O'Neill on October 13, 2023, which outlines the forecasted trajectory of China's national debt from 2018 to 2028. The data reveals a significant and continuous increase in China's national debt, anticipating a surge of 67.74 percent, totaling 9.6 trillion U.S. dollars between 2023 and 2028. By 2028, the estimated national debt is projected to reach a staggering 23.9 trillion U.S. dollars, marking a new peak.

The term "national debt" in this context refers to the general government gross debt, encompassing all liabilities that obligate the debtor to make future payments of interest and/or principal to the creditor. This includes debts with set dates for repayment in the future.

Let's break down the provided data:

1. Yearly Breakdown of China's National Debt (in billion U.S. dollars):
   • 2028: $23,892.16
   • 2027: $21,696.73
   • 2026: $19,633.93
   • 2025: $17,702.53
   • 2024: $15,907.46
   • 2023: $14,243.76
   • 2022: $12,706.32
   • 2021: $11,269.44
   • 2020: $9,853.44
   • 2019: $8,197.03
   • 2018: $7,107.34

The data illustrates a consistent upward trend, signifying an ongoing accumulation of national debt by China.

2. Definition of National Debt Indicator:

   • The national debt indicator, in this context, refers to the general government gross debt. It encompasses all financial obligations that necessitate future payments, including both interest and principal, owed by the debtor to the creditor. This broad definition reflects the comprehensive nature of the debt considered in the analysis.

3. Implications and Analysis:

   • The continuous increase in China's national debt over the specified period raises concerns about the country's fiscal sustainability and management. Such a substantial rise in debt levels may have profound implications for economic stability, monetary policy, and global financial dynamics.

4. Comparative Analysis with Other Countries:

   • The article hints at the availability of key insights for the national debt in other countries such as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Further exploration of these insights could provide a comparative perspective, facilitating a broader understanding of regional economic trends and debt dynamics.

In conclusion, the forecasted trajectory of China's national debt, as outlined in the article, underscores the importance of monitoring and analyzing economic indicators to gauge the health of a nation's finances. The data presented serves as a crucial reference point for policymakers, economists, and financial analysts seeking to comprehend the implications of China's evolving debt landscape on the global economic stage.