China's consumer prices fell by 0.5% yoy in November 2023, steeper than a 0.2% drop in the prior month and compared with market forecasts of a 0.1% fall. It was the fastest decline in the CPI since November 2020, as the cost of food decreased at the strongest pace in over two years (-4.2% vs -4.0% in October) amid a further fall in pork prices. Meantime, non-food inflation notably slowed (0.4% vs 0.7%), due to moderation in the cost of education (1.8% vs 2.3%) and a quicker drop in transport prices (-2.4% vs -0.9%). Simultaneously, inflation was unchanged for both housing (at 0.3%) and health (at 1.3%) while accelerating for clothing (1.3% vs 1.1%). Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in November, the same as in October. Monthly, the CPI also dropped by 0.5%, compared with consensus and October's figure of a 0.1% decrease. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Inflation Rate in China decreased to -0.50 percent in November from -0.20 percent in October of 2023. Inflation Rate in China averaged 4.75 percent from 1986 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 28.40 percent in February of 1989 and a record low of -2.20 percent in April of 1999. This page provides - China Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China Inflation Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2023.
Inflation Rate in China decreased to -0.50 percent in November from -0.20 percent in October of 2023. Inflation Rate in China is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the China Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2024 and 2.20 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.
China Inflation Rate
In China, the most important components of the CPI basket are Food (31.8 percent of total weight) and Residence (17.2 percent). Recreation, Education and Culture Articles account for 13.8 percent; Transportation and Communication for 10 percent, Healthcare and Personal Articles for 9.6 percent, Clothing for 8.5 percent; Households Facilities, Articles and Services for 5.6 percent; Tobacco, Liquor and Articles for the remaining 3.5 percent. The CPI basket is reviewed every five years on the basis of household surveys. Revisions reflect new spending patterns and economic development, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Last revision took place in 2011.
| Actual | Previous | Highest | Lowest | Dates | Unit | Frequency | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.50 | -0.20 | 28.40 | -2.20 | 1986 - 2023 | percent | Monthly |
News Stream
China Consumer Prices Drop the Most in 3 Years
China's consumer prices fell by 0.5% yoy in November 2023, steeper than a 0.2% drop in the prior month and compared with market forecasts of a 0.1% fall. It was the fastest decline in the CPI since November 2020, as the cost of food decreased at the strongest pace in over two years (-4.2% vs -4.0% in October) amid a further fall in pork prices. Meantime, non-food inflation notably slowed (0.4% vs 0.7%), due to moderation in the cost of education (1.8% vs 2.3%) and a quicker drop in transport prices (-2.4% vs -0.9%). Simultaneously, inflation was unchanged for both housing (at 0.3%) and health (at 1.3%) while accelerating for clothing (1.3% vs 1.1%). Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in November, the same as in October. Monthly, the CPI also dropped by 0.5%, compared with consensus and October's figure of a 0.1% decrease.
2023-12-09
China Consumer Prices Fall More than Expected
China's consumer prices dropped by 0.2% yoy in October 2023, compared with a flat reading in the prior month and forecasts of a 0.1% fall. The statistical office said the drop in CPI was due to an ample supply of agriculture products because of good weather and a fall in consumption after the Golden Week holiday at the start of October. Food prices declined the most in 25 months (-4% vs -3.2% in September), falling for the fourth straight month due to a steeper fall in pork prices. Meantime, non-food inflation was unchanged (at 0.7%), as cost continued to rise for clothing (1.1% vs 1.1%), housing (0.3% vs 0.2%), health (1.3% vs 1.3%), and education (2.3% vs 2.3%). At the same time, prices for transport fell at a slower rate (-0.9% vs -1.3%). Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in October, the least in 4 months. Monthly, the CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.2%, compared with the consensus of a flat figure and after a 0.2% rise in September.
2023-11-09
China Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Flat
China's consumer prices remained unchanged in September 2023 from a year earlier, following a 0.1% rise in the previous month and falling short of the market consensus for a 0.2% gain. The latest data indicated persistent deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy, raising concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery due to sluggish demand. Food prices dropped by 3.2% (vs -1.7% in August), driven by a steeper decline in pork prices (-22% vs -17.9%). Meanwhile, non-food inflation accelerated to 0.7% (vs 0.5% in August), driven by price increases in clothing (1.1%, the same as in August), housing (0.2% vs 0.1%), health (1.3% vs 1.2%), and education (2.5%, the same as in August). At the same time, prices for transport fell at a slower rate (-1.3% vs -2.1%). The annual core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 0.8% in September. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in September, compared to the consensus of 0.3%.
2023-10-13
I'm an economic analyst with a focus on global macroeconomics, particularly in the areas of inflation and consumer price dynamics. My expertise is built on years of comprehensive research, analysis, and a keen understanding of economic indicators. I have closely monitored and interpreted various countries' inflation trends, providing insights into the underlying factors shaping these economic phenomena.
Let's delve into the provided information on China's inflation rates for November 2023 and its preceding months. The data reveals a significant decline in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which fell by 0.5% year-on-year in November 2023, compared to a 0.2% drop in October. This decline exceeded market forecasts, indicating unexpected economic shifts.
The key contributing factor to this decline is the notable decrease in the cost of food, particularly a substantial fall in pork prices. Food prices experienced the most significant drop in over two years, declining by 4.2% in November compared to a 4.0% drop in October. The report attributes this trend to a further fall in pork prices.
Simultaneously, non-food inflation slowed down, with a decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%. This was influenced by a moderation in the cost of education (1.8% vs. 2.3%) and a more rapid drop in transport prices (-2.4% vs. -0.9%). In contrast, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.3%) and health (1.3%), while it accelerated for clothing (1.3% vs. 1.1%).
Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year in November, consistent with the October figure. Monthly, the CPI dropped by 0.5%, in contrast to the consensus and October's figure of a 0.1% decrease.
Looking at the broader historical context, the Inflation Rate in China averaged 4.75% from 1986 until 2023. The current negative inflation rate is a departure from the long-term average and may have implications for economic policy and consumer behavior.
The provided forecast suggests that China's inflation rate is expected to be 0.20% by the end of the current quarter, with a long-term projection trending around 2.10% in 2024 and 2.20% in 2025.
The composition of China's CPI basket reveals that food and residence are the most significant components, accounting for 31.8% and 17.2% of the total weight, respectively. Other components include Recreation, Education, and Culture Articles (13.8%), Transportation and Communication (10%), Healthcare and Personal Articles (9.6%), Clothing (8.5%), Households Facilities, Articles, and Services (5.6%), and Tobacco, Liquor, and Articles (3.5%).
In summary, China's recent deflationary trend in consumer prices, driven by a sharp decline in food prices, particularly pork, warrants careful consideration. This unexpected economic shift may have broader implications for monetary and fiscal policy in China and could impact global economic trends.
