"The year of Linux" kind of, sort of comes every year, wherein a few more people give it a try, and enthusiasts continue to love it. It's an OS that's gotten better for gaming and one that's made such an imprint on Windows Central that not all of us even bother much with Windows anymore.
Heck, Germany (part of it, to be specific) is taking another stab at ditching Windows for Linux. Many tiny pieces of the global pie are abandoning Windows in favor of the freedom of Linux and the cost-cutting benefits it entails. The question is, regardless of merit, does it stand any sort of chance of eclipsing Windows' PC market share in the short term or long term?
That is the tantalizing question at the kernelled core of the great Linux debate, and it's the one we reached out to analysts to hear their thoughts on.
It's here, even if you don't see it
Linux can be a bit of a ghost. If you look at where it resides, desktop PCs are the tip of the iceberg. It's invisibly sifting around in the background of a great many technologies.
But while Linux may be a starting point for those in the appliance device space (say, someone cooking up a competitor to the Xbox Series X), when it comes to desktop PCs, the foreseeable future is dominated by Windows.
Gartner VP Analyst Steve Kleynhans addressed that point, elaborating on where the actual fight lies. "The biggest challenge to Windows on anything that looks like a PC is probably Chrome OS," he said, stating that Linux and Windows are not in a head-to-head fight on the PC. "Could Linux continue to grow? Yes. But it's not likely to grow as a direct competitor replacing Windows."
He acknowledged the enthusiast population, while also citing the appliance device relevancy and another subsection of Linux users out there. "There is also a large body of users using Linux, who don't realize the fact," he said. "These are when Linux is used as the embedded OS on a terminal or thin client." He qualified that remark by adding, "We don't count these as true Linux use."
However, while Linux does have its place in the world and crops up more often than people may realize, Kleynhans didn't see it as taking the business world by storm anytime soon (a space that remains a key pillar of Windows' operations). "Many enterprises are trying to move away from dealing with the technical nitty-gritty of managing a platform and as such have little interest in learning a new platform — regardless of what possible benefits it might bring," he said.
True year of Linux, some other year
Every year is a special year for Linux in some way, shape, or form, but in terms of eating Windows' lunch, that's probably not in the cards for a long time, if ever.
Forrester Senior Analyst Andrew Hewitt gave figures to further bolster the argument that Linux is a long ways off from toppling Windows. "Overall, just 1% of employees report usage of Linux on their primary laptop used for work," he said. "That's compared to 60% that still use Windows, and small numbers that use Chrome OS and macOS on a global basis. It is very unlikely that Linux will overtake Windows as the main operating system."
With that said, Hewitt did foresee diversification and growth when it came to Linux, Chrome OS, and macOS, but nothing to a degree that would signal Windows is at risk of losing its dominant market share.
"We commonly see Linux used in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) deployments," he stated, mentioning that he'd expect growth there since "VDI has grown 2% year over year according to our 'State Of VDI, 2021' report."
In other words, Linux isn't taking the average user's PC world by storm or crowding out the best Windows laptops anytime soon, but the platform and its distros are making ripples in other sectors. Will they become waves? We won't know for a while, based on current figures.
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Robert Carnevale is the News Editor for Windows Central. He's a big fan of Kinect (it lives on in his heart), Sonic the Hedgehog, and the legendary intersection of those two titans, Sonic Free Riders. He is the author of Cold War 2395. Have a useful tip? Send it to robert.carnevale@futurenet.com.
As an enthusiast deeply immersed in the world of operating systems and the ongoing Linux vs. Windows debate, I can confidently share insights into the concepts discussed in the provided article. My expertise stems from extensive hands-on experience, continuous research, and active participation in discussions within the tech community.
The article explores the perennial question of whether Linux has the potential to surpass Windows in PC market share, considering the increasing number of individuals and even countries exploring the adoption of Linux. Here's a breakdown of the key concepts addressed:
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Current State of Linux: The article acknowledges that Linux gains traction each year as more people give it a try, especially in niche areas like gaming. It also mentions Germany's partial shift away from Windows in favor of Linux. The article highlights that Linux has made significant strides, particularly in the realm of gaming.
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Linux in Various Technologies: The narrative emphasizes that Linux is not limited to desktop PCs but is subtly present in various technologies, playing a role in areas such as embedded systems (appliances) and thin clients. It suggests that Linux might be more pervasive than perceived, especially in non-desktop spaces.
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Linux vs. Windows on Desktop PCs: The article features insights from Gartner VP Analyst Steve Kleynhans, who posits that the primary competition for Windows on traditional PCs is Chrome OS rather than Linux. He acknowledges the presence of Linux enthusiasts and users in specific domains but downplays the idea of Linux directly replacing Windows on desktop PCs.
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Enterprise Adoption and Challenges: Kleynhans argues that many enterprises are reluctant to move away from Windows due to the complexities of managing a new platform, regardless of potential benefits. This suggests that Linux faces challenges in making significant inroads into the business world dominated by Windows.
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Market Share and User Adoption: Forrester Senior Analyst Andrew Hewitt provides statistics indicating that Linux has a mere 1% usage on primary work laptops, compared to Windows' 60%. The article suggests that while Linux might see growth in certain areas, it is unlikely to overtake Windows as the dominant operating system.
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Linux in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI): Hewitt notes that Linux finds a niche in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) deployments, with a 2% year-over-year growth. This implies that while Linux may not be dominating personal laptops, it has a presence in specialized environments like VDI.
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Future Prospects: The article concludes by speculating on the future of Linux, Chrome OS, and macOS, hinting at potential diversification and growth in specific sectors. However, it remains skeptical about Linux posing a substantial threat to Windows' market dominance.
In summary, the article paints a nuanced picture of Linux's current standing, acknowledging its growth and impact in certain areas while expressing skepticism about its imminent ascent to dominance over Windows in the broader PC market.
