Can Dogecoin Reach $1, $5, or $10 ? (2024)

An analysis on Dogecoin

Disclaimer: The material in this article is purely educational and should not be taken as professional investment advice. Invest at your own discretion. Some external links in this post are affiliated.

In this article, I will analyze Dogecoin to answer the question “can Dogecoin reach $1, $5, or $10?”. Please take this analysis with a grain of salt as I do not have a crystal ball to see crypto prices in the future. Dogecoin is a cryptocurrency invented by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, who decided to create a payment system that is instant, fun, and free from traditional banking fees (a meme crypto currency).

Market capitalization or Market cap for short is just another way to measure a cryptocurrencies value, it could indicate the growth potential of a cryptocurrency. It is basically used to indicate how popular a cryptocurrency is. Although market cap may be seen as important to some, it’s importance is often criticized. Note that many people believe cryptocurrencies with a large capitalization are generally considered to be safer investments compared to other cryptocurrencies.

According to coinmarketcap.com, as of this writing (Feb. 02, 2022), Dogecoin has a Market Capitalization of $18,184,954,659 that’s about $18.18 billion dollars with a circulating supply of about 132,670,764,300 DOGE which is about 132.67 billion Dogecoins and a current price of $0.1372 USD per coin or 13.72 cents.

To calculate the market cap, we just need to take the current price and multiply it by the circulating supply. So, to calculate Dogecoins market cap just take its price (0.1372) and multiply it by its circulating supply (132,670,764,300) to get 18,202,428,861.96 or about $18.2 billion. You may notice that number isn’t the market cap that coinmarketcap.com is showing in the image above and you would be correct, the reason for the market cap difference could be a rounding error, but the numbers are relatively close. For more information on this check out https://coinmarketcap.com/faq/.

Market Cap = Price X Circulating Supply

Alright, now that you understand the math behind calculating the market cap, let’s compute what the market cap would be if dogecoin hit $1, or $5, or $10.

Using the image above, we can now compare these market caps with other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether/Ethereum (ETH). Bitcoin currently has a market cap of about $699.95 billion. That market cap rivals the market cap of Dogecoin if Dogecoin hits just $5 per coin at its current supply. If Dogecoins price were to reach $5 today at the current supply, then it would be ranked as the number 2 coin by market cap replacing Ethereum. Dogecoin is currently ranked at number 11 which isn’t bad. So, just based off of this. Yes, it’s possible for Dogecoin to hit $5 especially if the crypto market as a whole goes up, but I think it’s unlikely until Bitcoin goes up in price (especially since the crypto market seems to be correlated to Bitcoin price) as the price per coin would have to be about (5/0.1372) or 36.44 times it’s current price (not that this is impossible as we have seen the price increase by 1000 times in the past and many people doubted it would ever get anywhere near its current low price). Let me emphasize that people didn’t think it would reach the current low price, meaning the price of Dogecoin went far beyond its current price, and who knows maybe it will happen again.

If Dogecoin was $10 per coin at the current supply, then it would have a market cap of about $1.33 trillion and would become the first cryptocurrency with a trillion dollar market cap surpassing Bitcoin (the first cryptocurrency) for the number one spot in terms of market cap and it would surpass Ethereum as well. Both of these cryptocurrencies are the two most popular and longest cryptocurrencies in the top ten spot for cryptocurrencies by market cap.

A $1.33 trillion market cap would also make Dogecoin more valuable then Tesla (which is currently sitting at a market cap of about $942 billion), Meta a.k.a. Facebook (which currently has a market cap of about $677 billion, and Netflix (which has a market cap of about $192 billion). As a matter of fact, it would make Dogecoin more valuable then Facebook and Netflix combined at their current market cap. But, it still would have a market cap lower than companies like Apple (which has a market cap of about a $2.8 trillion) , Microsoft (which has a market cap of about $2.3 trillion), Alphabet a.k.a Google (which has a market cap of about $1.9 trillion) and Amazon (which has a market cap of about 1.59 trillion).

So, this tells me based off of the market cap alone that it is possible for Dogecoin to reach $10 at its current supply, but at this current time I don’t expect many other cryptocurrencies to surpass the market cap of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In my opinion, until Ethereum or Bitcoin reaches a trillion dollar market cap, I don’t think it’s likely for Dogecoin to reach $10 per coin or any other crypto currency to reach a trillion dollar market cap before those two. But, anything could happen.

Last but not least, if dogecoin price today was $1 then its market cap would be about $132.67 billion, this would rank it as the third coin by market cap currently beating other coins like ADA and Solana which are considered to be rivals of Ethereum. So, this price seems possible but unlikely unless the whole crypto market goes up in value and Dogecoin gets the attention that it once had.

Alright, now what if Dogecoin could reach the 50 cent price again, what would the market cap be ? Well Dogecoin would then have a market cap of about $66.3 billion and that would put it at spot number four in terms of market cap. So, although Dogecoin has reached 50 cents per coin before when many people didn’t think it would, with the current crypto market being down, this doesn’t seem likely, but, it’s more likely than Dogecoin reaching a dollar or higher especially sense it has reached this price before. But remember that past performance does not guarantee future performance.

Now, you may say well the price per coin isn’t the only thing that you can change, you can also change the supply. If you were to decrease the supply of Dogecoin and the Market Cap remained the same, then that would mean that the price would increase, and the opposite is also true, if the circulating supply increases and the market cap stays the same, then the price decreases. We can see this is true simply by manipulating or rewriting the Market Cap equation from earlier.

Market Cap / Circulating Supply = Price

Dogecoin has an unlimited supply, meaning there isn’t a finite number of coins that will be created. (According to Wikipedia) Dogecoin does not have a supply cap like other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin with its capped supply of 21 million coins. Dogecoin has instead a deliberately stable, “deterministic inflation” rate of 10,000 Dogecoin per block, with a block time of one minute. Exactly five billion new Dogecoin will be created and enter circulation every year. This means the supply will continue to increase forever, and the greater the circulating supply given a constant market cap means a lower price.

If both the price and the circulating supply continue to increase then this coin will most certainly have a much higher market cap, and will probably cement a spot in the top 10 or even the top 5 coins by market cap.

Dogecoins current price is about 0.1372. It is far below the trend lines. Using linear regression, we would expect the price of Doge to currently be about 0.2772 which is roughly double its current price.

Using Fibonacci Retracement we can see that the next support line is near $0.00153 USD for the coin and it’s next resistant level is 0.2625 which is near the price the linear regression model predicts it should be at. Also, the coin has not managed to reach past or near the green Fibonacci line at price (0.3431) since October 2021. Notice that the volume has decreased drastically from when Dogecoin reached its all time high. This may show that people are losing interest in the coin.

Again, we might want to keep an eye out for when/if the price of Dogecoin reaches about $0.2625. As the chart below shows this is about the price level where the current resistant Fibonacci Retracement line and the low trend line meet.

The 30 day Relative Strength Index Simple Moving Average shows that the asset is neither over bought nor over sold. So, this is neither a good time to sell nor buy the asset. This may mean that Dogecoin is currently at a fair value.

The 200 day Simple Moving Average has crossed above the 50 day Simple Moving Average. This signals what is called the death cross, it is a pattern that may show more of a sell off for an asset much like we are seeing with Dogecoin, but there have been false death crosses before so this could mean absolutely nothing.

Dogecoin price correlation to a few Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin suggests that if the crypto market is going down then so is the price of Dogecoin and vice versa, if the crypto market is going up then so is the price of Dogecoin.

The correlation Dogecoin has to Bitcoin is about 65%, and this is the lowest correlation of the crypto currencies (Litecoin, Ethereum, & Bitcoin) in the heat map below.

People searching for “Dogecoins price” in the past 5 years is very low relative to its all time high search between May 9 2021 and May 15 2021 (the same time it reached its all time high price) with a score of 100. The score as of January 30, 2022 is 5. The numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time.

A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.

This could mean that people are losing interest in this asset, which definitely doesn’t help the price.

Currently the whole crypto market is in ‘Extreme Fear’ which has historically been good times to buy and prices for crypto are usually at lower levels.

According to the FB model. This assets future price is looking grim. The model expects the price of Dogecoin to be near $0.00 USD around July 2022 and a max price of about 20 cents per coin, but again this is just a model. Anything could happen.

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