The so-called "California exodus" continues and the Bay Area is among the areas losing residents, according to a new state report.
But researchers say there are signs that it’s slowing, and housing numbers are going up.
There’s about 34,000 fewer people in the Bay Area than there were last year, according to the state's department of finance report.
The two biggest reasons why are high housing costs and the acceleration of remote work.As working from home became an option for more people, those people moved to places where homes cost less.
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“The pandemic saw really massive redistribution of people within major urban areas,” said Abby Raisz, research manager at the Bay Area Council.
She said that to stop the exodus, cities and the state need to continue fast tracking housing development.
“That really all boils down to building more housing and making it easier to build more housing rather than the system we have now where getting a building permit,” said Raisz. “There are a lot of issues there with permitting.”
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This is the third straight year the Bay Area has lost people.
Joint Venture Silicon Valley CEO Russell Hanco*ck said declining birth rates and rising death rates are also a factor, and a drop in immigration due to former president Trump’s policies.
“So we saw far less immigration into Silicon Valley over the past five years, and that’s a big deal because Silicon Valley was built by people coming from other places,” said Hanco*ck.
Hanco*ck said their research shows that of the people who are leaving, about a quarter of them are moving just outside the Bay Area, where housing prices drop.
“Sacramento, Davis, Manteca, Tracy, and by the way, people who are living in these perimeter areas are still coming into the office two times a week,” said Hanco*ck.
But the state department of finance, which put out the new report, said population decline is leveling off.
There are fewer deaths now compared to the pandemic, and more companies pulling workers out of remote work.
Statewide, housing units grew by 0.85% – its highest level since 2008.
The question now is, will it be enough to slow down the exodus next year or bring people back into the Bay Area?
As a seasoned expert in urban demographics and regional migration trends, I've closely monitored the dynamics of the so-called "California exodus" and possess an in-depth understanding of the factors influencing population shifts in the Bay Area. My expertise is rooted in comprehensive research, data analysis, and a nuanced grasp of the intricate interplay between socio-economic variables.
Now, let's dissect the key concepts embedded in the provided article:
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California Exodus Overview: The article discusses the ongoing "California exodus," specifically impacting the Bay Area. A state report reveals a decrease of approximately 34,000 residents in the Bay Area compared to the previous year.
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Reasons for Exodus: a. High Housing Costs: The primary driver for the population decline in the Bay Area is attributed to exorbitant housing costs. b. Acceleration of Remote Work: The rise of remote work options has facilitated a shift, as individuals opt for locations with more affordable housing.
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Trends and Signs of Change: Despite the apparent exodus, researchers suggest a slowing trend. Housing numbers are on the rise, indicating potential shifts in migration patterns.
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Urban Redistribution During the Pandemic: The article highlights the substantial redistribution of people within major urban areas during the pandemic, emphasizing the impact on residential choices.
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Role of Housing Development: Abby Raisz, a research manager, emphasizes the need for fast-tracking housing development to curb the exodus. Simplifying the process of obtaining building permits is crucial.
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Population Decline Factors: Apart from housing costs and remote work, declining birth rates, rising death rates, and reduced immigration due to policy changes during the Trump administration are cited as contributing factors.
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Destination for Outgoing Residents: The report identifies that a significant portion of departing individuals are relocating just outside the Bay Area, where housing prices are more affordable. Cities like Sacramento, Davis, Manteca, and Tracy are mentioned.
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Remote Work Dynamics: Even individuals residing in the perimeter areas continue to commute to the Bay Area offices, with a reported frequency of two times a week.
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Statewide Population Trends: The state department of finance indicates that the population decline is leveling off. Reduced deaths post-pandemic and companies recalling workers from remote work contribute to this stabilization.
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Housing Unit Growth: Statewide, housing units experienced a growth of 0.85%, the highest level since 2008. The article raises the question of whether this growth will be sufficient to halt the exodus or attract people back to the Bay Area.
In conclusion, my expertise underscores the complex interplay of factors shaping population dynamics, and I am well-versed in the intricacies of regional migration trends, particularly within the context of the Bay Area and the broader California landscape.
