ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (2024)

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (1)

In 2022, an investment in Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) underperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. If the current rotation out of the growth sector continues, a heavy allocation of investment funds to overvalued and over-hyped technology stocks with massively inflated sales multiples will harm the fund's performance.

The intrinsic value of the ARK Innovation ETF has fallen further as investors are less willing to pay unsustainable multiples for unprofitable companies and exit the growth sector of the stock market.

What Happened To ARK Innovation ETF This Year?

Big problems loom for thematic investment funds that doubled down on high-multiple stocks just as the valuation cycle peaked last year. Many tech stocks are down significantly as investors adjust to changing macro landscapes and risk scenarios.

While the ARK Innovation ETF outperformed during the Covid-19 period as wise bets on pandemic winners paid off, the exchange traded fund is now facing a period of significantly lower returns and higher volatility.

Investors are no longer willing to pay the highest sales multiples for companies that outperformed during the pandemic, and they are becoming increasingly aware that many of the companies that saw valuation increases are actually not very profitable at all.

A $10k investment in Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF is now worth approximately $6.9K, implying a negative return of approximately 31%.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (2)

During the same period, the S&P 500 performed significantly better, with a negative return of only about 10% in the first two months of the year, owing to better diversification and less exposure to thematic investing.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (3)

The ARK Innovation ETF has a significant allocation of funds to stocks that outperformed during the pandemic but have underperformed in recent weeks.

Whether it's e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP), streaming platform Roku (ROKU), big-data firm Palantir Technologies (PLTR), electric-vehicle enterprise Tesla (TSLA), fintech Block (SQ), video conferencing platform Zoom Video Communications (ZM), or cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase (COIN). Cathie Wood doubled down on many of these stocks during the pandemic, paying peak sales multiples in many cases. Palantir, the big-data company that continues to be outrageously overvalued, is a case in point.

Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management sold approximately 11.8 million shares of Palantir Technologies last week after the big-data company's fourth-quarter earnings fell short of expectations and the stock price plummeted. The transaction is said to have been worth $123.3 million, which is a large sum even for the billion-dollar exchange traded funds of Cathie Wood's ARK brand. The concerning point is that Palantir stock was trading at 52-week lows at the time of the sales, implying that Cathie Wood incurred a significant loss on the ARK investment position in Palantir.

Palantir was the most heavily sold stock in the ARK Investment ETF portfolio, according to the fund's recent trade history.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (4)

Cathie Wood bought the dip in Tesla, Zoom Video Communications, and Coinbase while liquidating her Palantir position last week. Palantir's weighting has now been reduced to zero.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (5)

However, Cathie Wood is in for more pain because the ARK Innovation ETF remains heavily overweight high-multiple stocks, and there are no signs of the tech rout abating anytime soon. This suggests that further downward pressure on the fund's net asset value is possible.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (6)

Despite significant corrections this year, all of ARK Innovation ETF's top ten investment holdings are likely still overvalued, as they all trade at inflated sales multiples. Companies that lack fundamental profitability are at risk of further valuation adjustments as the great rotation away from growth and toward value accelerates.

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (7)

High Chance Of Significant Underperformance, High Volatility

Overweighting high-multiple stocks at a time when the market is re-calibrating valuation multiples in response to new economic realities such as surging inflation, rising interest rates, and the war drums now sounding in Ukraine is a recipe for disaster.

Worse, as of February 25, 2022, the top ten holdings of the ARK Innovation ETF represented a massive 58% of the fund's total investments, implying that fund performance will be heavily influenced by how well a few of the ETF's high-multiple stocks perform.

Because investors are now realizing that they overpaid for growth stocks during the Covid-19 boom, funds that follow a thematic investment strategy, such as the ARK Innovation ETF, may be primed for a longer period of below-average returns.

My Conclusion

Being overweight growth stocks with highly inflated sales multiples at a time when investors are pivoting in the opposite direction indicates the possibility of significant fund underperformance. The great rotation out of growth and into value is still ongoing, implying that net asset value declines are still possible.

The core holdings of ARK Innovation ETF are all high-multiple stocks. Investors must brace themselves for fund underperformance and high volatility as the tech rout continues.

This article was written by

ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (8)

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ARKK ETF: Brace For Underperformance And High Volatility (2024)

FAQs

What is the average investor return on ARKK? ›

In the last 5 Years, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ETF obtained a -0.23% compound annual return, with a 40.74% standard deviation. The ETF is related to the following investment themes: Asset Class: Equity.

What is going on with ARK ETFs? ›

The ARK Innovation ETF surged more than 152% in 2020, handily beating the Nasdaq's hefty 43.6% return. But the ARKK ETF sharply underperformed the Nasdaq in 2021, finishing down 24% compared to the Nasdaq's 21.4% advance. That underperformance continued in 2022, with the ARKK ETF plunging 67% vs.

Is ARKK better than QQQ? ›

QQQ - Performance Comparison. In the year-to-date period, ARKK achieves a 36.08% return, which is significantly higher than QQQ's 33.34% return. Over the past 10 years, ARKK has underperformed QQQ with an annualized return of 10.18%, while QQQ has yielded a comparatively higher 18.28% annualized return.

Who are the largest holders of ARKK? ›

Largest shareholders include Morgan Stanley, Shanda Payment Holdings Ltd., Wells Fargo & Company/mn, Jane Street Group, Llc, Citadel Advisors Llc, Susquehanna International Group, Llp, Susquehanna International Group, Llp, Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa, Susquehanna International Group, Llp, and Citigroup Inc .

What is the 5 year return for ARKK? ›

Month-End Average Annual Total Returns And Risks As of 04/30/2023
AverageNAV ReturnMarket Benchmark (S&P 500 TR USD) AS OF 04/30/2023
1 Year-23.94+2.66
3 Year-12.64+14.52
5 Year-0.42+11.45
10 Year--+12.20
2 more rows

What is the analyst rating for ARKK? ›

ARKK has a conensus rating of Hold which is based on 197 buy ratings, 162 hold ratings and 40 sell ratings. What is ARKK's price target? The average price target for ARKK is $48.30. This is based on 399 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months.

Can ARKK ever recover? ›

So far, 2023 is shaping up to be the year of recovery for Cathie Wood and ARKK. Those who have followed the moving-average strategy would have avoided sharp losses in 2022, and yet participated in about two-thirds of the 2023 rally.

Will ARKK recover in 2023? ›

The renowned investment manager experienced a significant decline in the value of her flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) between early 2021 and the end of last year, with a drop of up to 80%. However, the fund has shown signs of recovery in early 2023 and has since increased by almost 50% year-to-date.

Why is ARKK declining? ›

Down around 80% from its peak, ARKK is at a five-year low. As the Federal Reserve continues battling inflation with rate hikes, ARKK may still be a ways off from turning a corner. Undoubtedly, the fate of ARKK and other innovative tech stocks still seems largely tied to the actions of the Federal Reserve.

What is the volatility of ARKK? ›

ARK Innovation ETF has an Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.1% p.a. for a constant maturity of 30 days. The Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) for ARKK is 10 and the Implied Volatility Percentile (IVP) is 6.

Which is the best ARK ETF to invest in? ›

The best performing ARK fund in terms of three-year performance was $ARKQ (ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF), returning +5.83% to its shareholders. On the other hand, the best performing ARK fund in terms of 12-month performance was $ARKF (ARK Fintech Innovation ETF), returning +7.85% to its investors.

What is the highest performing ETF? ›

100 Highest 5 Year ETF Returns
SymbolName5-Year Return
QCLNFirst Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund20.94%
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ19.49%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund19.47%
VGTVanguard Information Technology ETF18.68%
91 more rows

What is the ETF equivalent to ARKK? ›

ETF Benchmarks & Alternatives
TickerNameExpense Ratio
SQEWLeaderShares Equity Skew ETF0.75%
ARKKARK Innovation ETF0.75%
WBIGWBI BullBear Yield 3000 ETF1.04%
AADRAdvisorShares Dorsey Wright ADR ETF1.10%
4 more rows

Does ARKK pay a dividend? ›

Does ARKK pay dividends? Yes, ARKK has paid a dividend within the past 12 months.

Where to invest in ARKK? ›

Our ETFs are available Through Various Channels
  • Ameriprise.
  • Charles Schwab.
  • Chase.
  • E-Trade.
  • Fidelity.
  • Firstrade.
  • Interactive Brokers.
  • Merrill Edge.

Is ARKK a growth fund? ›

ARKK is an actively managed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that seeks long-term growth of capital by investing under normal circ*mstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to the Fund's investment theme of disruptive innovation.

What is the ARK fund performance in 2023? ›

Overall ARK Invest Performance

The fund has gained 29.78 percent in the early weeks of 2023, while the S&P 500 has risen just 6.54 percent. On a slightly longer time horizon, however, the fund has still turned in poor performance for its investors. Over the last year, ARKK has lost 46.73 percent of its overall value.

How many stocks does ARKK own? ›

ARKK has a total of 29 holdings and mostly holds technology stocks from all over the world. The top 10 holdings account for 62.54% of the fund's assets.

What is the price prediction for ARKK in 2030? ›

ARK price prediction December 2030: ARK's price for December 2030 according to our analysis should range between $0.86 to $1.00 and the average price of ARK should be around $0.93.

What is the ARKK forecast for 2024? ›

Should I buy ARK Innovation ETF Stock (ARKK) now? Future price of the stock is predicted at $43.23 (+0.88%) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your current investment may be worth $100.9 on 2024-June-08.

What is the dividend yield for Ark innovation ETF? ›

The forward dividend yield for ARKK as of June 11, 2023 is 2.01%. Dividend history for stock ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) including historic stock price and split, spin-off and special dividends.

Is ARKK a good investment 2023? ›

Which is why ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK) is a favorite investment for 2023. Right now, Cathie Wood's fund is the laughing stock of the investing world as it has fallen over 60% in 2022. Yes, that is about three times worse than the S&P 500. The reason is simple.

What is the price prediction for ARKK in 2025? ›

ARK price prediction May 2025: ARK's price for May 2025 according to our analysis should range between $0.36 to $0.41 and the average price of ARK should be around $0.39.

Which ARK funds hold tesla? ›

Tesla is the No. 3 holding in her flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) - Get Free Report, behind No. 1 Exact Sciences and Zoom Video Communications.

Is ARKK stock a good buy? ›

The ARK ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average.

Is ARKK passive or active? ›

The Fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) that will invest under normal circ*mstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic equity securities and U.S. exchange traded foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to the Fund s investment theme of disruptive innovation.

Has ARKK ever split? ›

Ark Innovation Etf (ARKK) has 0 splits in our Ark Innovation Etf stock split history database. Looking at the Ark Innovation Etf stock split history from start to finish, an original position size of 1000 shares would have turned into 1000 today.

Why is ARKK tanking? ›

ARKK has been a disaster for beginner investors. The fabulous growth rates of some of its stocks were too hard to resist. Many were inflated as businesses which came to the fore during the pandemic lock down. Inexperienced investors projected their growth rates far into the future.

Does ARKK own Netflix? ›

2022-10-17 - ARK Investment Management LLC has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 0 shares of Netflix Inc (US:NFLX) with total holdings valued at $0 USD as of 2022-09-30.

How much bitcoin does ARKK own? ›

ARK eventually was able to get bitcoin exposure via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The ARK Next Generation Internet Fund (ARKW) currently holds about 5.9 million shares of GBTC valued at roughly $67.4 million.

What is the most volatile ETF? ›

7 Best Volatility ETFs Of June 2023
  • The Best Volatility ETFs of June 2023.
  • Simplify Volatility Premium ETF (SVOL)
  • Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY)
  • iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ)
  • iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF (EFAV)
Jun 1, 2023

What is a highly volatile stock? ›

If the price of a stock fluctuates rapidly in a short period, hitting new highs and lows, it is said to have high volatility. If the stock price moves higher or lower more slowly, or stays relatively stable, it is said to have low volatility.

What is considered high volatility stock? ›

A stock with a price that fluctuates wildly—hits new highs and lows or moves erratically—is considered highly volatile. A stock that maintains a relatively stable price has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is inherently riskier, but that risk cuts both ways.

Which is better Berkshire Hathaway or ARK innovation ETF? ›

BRK-B - Performance Comparison. In the year-to-date period, ARKK achieves a 29.61% return, which is significantly higher than BRK-B's 3.94% return. Over the past 10 years, ARKK has underperformed BRK-B with an annualized return of 9.58%, while BRK-B has yielded a comparatively higher 10.92% annualized return.

What is Cathie Wood's biggest holding? ›

Representing 7.55% of the equity portfolio, Tesla (TSLA, Financial) is Wood's largest holding. GuruFocus estimates she has gained 120.39% on the investment so far. Wood's holding history of Tesla.

What is Vanguard's best-performing ETF? ›

What Are the Best Vanguard ETFs?
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
  • Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS)
  • Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)
  • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
  • Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB)
  • Vanguard ESG US Stock ETF (ESGV)
  • Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF (VONG)
May 25, 2023

What is the most aggressive ETF? ›

Aggressive Growth ETF List
Symbol SymbolETF Name ETF NameESG Score Global Percentile (%) ESG Score Global Percentile (%)
VUGVanguard Growth ETF60.45%
IWFiShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF68.15%
VGTVanguard Information Technology ETF82.69%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund88.82%
4 more rows

What are the hottest ETFs? ›

7 Best ETFs to Buy Now
ETFYTD performance as of June 2
Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK)33.2%
Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK)28.8%
Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT)2.5%
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)6.8%
3 more rows
7 days ago

Which ETFs outperform the S&P 500? ›

The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has been a consistent outperformer over the past 10 years
  • SPX.
  • SPY.
  • AAPL.
  • MSFT.
  • AMZN.
  • NVDA.
  • GOOG.
  • GOOGL.
Mar 29, 2023

What ETF does Warren Buffett use? ›

Through his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett only owns one type of ETF: the S&P 500 ETF -- specifically, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEMKT: SPY).

What is Cathie Wood's flagship ETF? ›

Cathie Wood's Flagship ARK ETF Marks 5-Day Winning Streak — Outperforming Nasdaq, FAANG In May - ARK Innovation ETF (ARCA:ARKK) - Benzinga.

What is the difference between ARKK and ARKW holdings? ›

ARKK's total expense ratio works out to 0.75% as opposed to ARKW's figure of 0.83%; ARKW's number is higher because, in addition to the standard 0.75% management fee that both ETFs incur, ARKW also faces additional expenses to the tune of 0.08% that arise due to its investment in other ETFs and money market funds.

What is the average investor return for ARKK? ›

In the last 5 Years, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ETF obtained a -0.23% compound annual return, with a 40.74% standard deviation. The ETF is related to the following investment themes: Asset Class: Equity.

Can you live off ETF dividends? ›

For many retirees, dividend-paying stocks and ETFs provide income without a job. Often, they are for those who do not have time to monitor the market every second. They are suitable long-term investments since payouts are constant.

What companies are in the ARKK fund? ›

All 120 Combined Ark Invest ETF Holdings
Weight RankCompanyFunds
2UiPathARKKARKGARKQARKFARKXARKW
3Roku, Inc.ARKKARKFARKW
4SquareARKKARKWARKF
5Zoom Video CommunicationsARKKARKW
38 more rows

What are the annualized returns for Ark Invest? ›

Performance Overview
  • 22.86%YTD Daily Total Return.
  • -6.46%1-Year Daily Total Return.
  • -14.42%3-Year Daily Total Return.

What is a typical investor return? ›

Key return on investment statistics

Average annual return on stocks: 13.8 percent. Average annual return on international stocks: 5.8 percent. Average annual return on bonds: 1.6 percent. Average annual return on gold: 0.8 percent.

What is the average stock investor return? ›

The stock market rate of return averages 10% per year over time, but it rarely hits that every year. Some years go into the red, while others hit 20+%. Inflation factors in because it determines your buying power. Still, even with high years like 2022, the average inflation over time is around 2%.

What is the average investor annual return? ›

5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year Average US Stock Market Return
PeriodAverage stock market returnAverage stock market return adjusted for inflation
5 years (2017 to 2021)17.04%13.64%
10 years (2012 to 2021)14.83%12.37%
20 years (2002 to 2021)8.91%6.40%
30 years (1992 to 2021)9.89%7.31%

Is 7.5% return on investment good? ›

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation. But of course what one investor considers a good return might not be ideal for someone else.

Is 10% annualized return good? ›

The average stock market return is about 10% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 index. In some years, the market returns more than that, and in other years, it returns less. The S&P 500 index comprises about 500 of America's largest publicly traded companies and is a benchmark for annual returns.

What is 100 year average stock return? ›

10.359% 7.219%

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