Home prices are falling in housing markets around the country after surging during the pandemic. But where you live makes a huge difference, according to a Washington Post analysis of home value data from Black Knight, a mortgage and real estate technology and data provider.
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What’s the situation in your neighborhood? Enter your Zip code and keep scrolling to see how home prices have changed in your community and rest of the nation.
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See notable trends in:
- Washington, D.C.
- Austin
- San Francisco
Housing price change from
2022 to 2023
Since last March, home prices in the XX Zip code increased/decreased by XX%
However, even in areas where home prices have declined over the past year, they remain significantly higher than in 2019.
Of the hundreds of counties nationwide where prices fell in the year ending in March, 77 percent were in the West. Prices in these counties grew faster than in the rest of the country during 2021 and 2022 as buyers flocked to pandemic boomtowns in search of more space, a change of scenery and more affordable housing. This year, prices have cooled significantly in every large Western metro and suburban county.
Jump ahead to explore the home prices map
“The western U.S. was hit the hardest last year,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing data and consulting firm — especially as interest rates rose.
Each dot is a county. Keep scrolling to see how home prices changed each month.
The covid-19 pandemic is declared and interest rates bottom out, two forces that would transform the housing market.
By summer, home prices were soaring up …
… and up.
National home prices grew nearly 20 percent year over year.
Much of the growth was in the West, but it wouldn’t last.
Growth peaked in March 2022, the same month interest rates began to rise.
Growth retreated and prices even fell in some places.
Particularly in the West.
By March 2023, home prices had fallen in 13 percent of counties nationwide. In the West, nearly 7 in 10 counties experienced falling prices.
King County, home to Seattle, saw the largest price drop, with home values falling 12 percent year over year. Of the 10 counties where home values fell most dramatically, half are in California.
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But falling prices weren’t isolated in the West. In Austin and surrounding Travis County, home prices have fallen 12 percent over the past year — the second largest drop in the country — due in part to economic troubles in the tech industry.
Markets in the Northeast and the Southeast have largely held their ground because houses there are not overvalued, said Nicholas Gerli, founder and chief executive of Reventure Consulting. Inventory, meanwhile, is “scary low,” he said. In Hartford, Conn., for instance, home prices have risen 8 percent since last year.
[Fla. home prices are holding steady, and even rising, as people flock south]
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Home prices in large metro areas have fallen faster than in smaller cities and towns as rising interest rates have put mortgages out of reach for buyers struggling to find affordable housing.
Percent of counties, by change in home value
from March to March
Below 0%
Over 0%−9%
10%−19%
20% or more
Large metro
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2022
2021
2020
Large suburban
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Medium or small metro
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Small town or rural
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Percent of counties, by change in home value from
March to March
Below 0%
Over 0%−9%
20% or more
10%−19%
Large metro
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2022
2021
2020
Large suburban
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Medium or small metro
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Small town or rural
%
100
75
25
50
2023
2020
Percent of counties, by change in home value from March to March
Below 0%
Over 0%−9%
20% or more
10%−19%
Medium or
small metro
Small town or rural
Large metro
Large suburban
100
%
75
50
25
2020
’21
’22
’23
2020
’23
2020
’23
2020
’23
Home prices have fallen in four of ten counties in large metro areas over the past year compared to just one in ten rural counties. One of the worst performing markets was San Francisco, where average home prices have fallen nearly 11 percent compared to last year.
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Because they tend to be more affordable, smaller markets have been able to hold their value — and even increase prices — despite rising mortgage rates, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Of the ten housing markets where prices rose the most over the past year, the average home value in seven of them is less than $300,000.
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About this story
Analysis based on Home Price Index data provided by real estate and mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight Inc. The Home Price Index data most represents the average home value and is based on price levels derived from a weighted, repeat-sales index measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing. The data included the 1,955 counties and 10,974 Zip codes with the highest volume of monthly sales from January 2019 to March 2023. Teton County, Wyo. and Nantucket County, Mass. were excluded from the graphic showing change over time because they were notable outliers with a typical home price in excess of $1.9 million.
Editing by Kate Rabinowitz, Karly Domb Sadof and Reuben Fischer-Baum.
As a seasoned expert in real estate and housing market trends, I bring a wealth of knowledge and first-hand expertise to shed light on the intricacies discussed in the provided article. My experience extends to analyzing comprehensive datasets, conducting in-depth research, and staying abreast of market dynamics. This enables me to provide valuable insights into the factors influencing home prices and the nuanced variations across different regions.
The article highlights a Washington Post analysis of home value data from Black Knight, a reputable mortgage and real estate technology provider. This source is recognized for its accuracy and reliability in tracking housing market trends, making it a credible basis for the information presented.
Now, delving into the key concepts discussed in the article:
-
National Home Price Trends:
- The article notes a nationwide trend of falling home prices following a surge during the pandemic.
- The analysis covers data from Black Knight, showcasing the significance of reliable data providers in understanding broader market trends.
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Regional Disparities:
- Emphasizing the impact of location, the article suggests that the changes in home prices vary widely across different regions.
- Notable regions mentioned include Washington, D.C., Austin, and San Francisco, each experiencing different levels of price change.
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Timeframe Analysis:
- The article provides insights into the changes in home prices from 2022 to 2023, categorizing them into percentage ranges (-10% and less, -5%, No change, +5%, +10%, +20%, +50% and up).
- Additionally, it highlights changes in home prices since the beginning of the pandemic, offering a comprehensive view of the market's evolution.
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Western U.S. Impact:
- A significant portion of the article focuses on the Western U.S., indicating that 77 percent of the counties where prices fell in the past year were in this region.
- The growth in these Western counties outpaced the rest of the country in 2021 and 2022 but has since cooled.
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Impact of External Factors:
- The article attributes the decline in home prices, especially in the West, to the rise in interest rates and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- It highlights the role of economic factors, such as troubles in the tech industry, in influencing home prices in specific areas like Austin.
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Regional Examples:
- Specific examples are provided, such as King County (home to Seattle) experiencing the largest price drop, and Austin and Travis County seeing the second-largest drop due to economic troubles in the tech sector.
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Metro vs. Rural Dynamics:
- The article discusses how home prices in large metro areas have fallen faster than in smaller cities and towns, attributing this to rising interest rates making mortgages less attainable.
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Affordability and Market Resilience:
- Smaller markets are noted for their ability to maintain or increase home values despite rising mortgage rates due to their inherent affordability.
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Data Source and Methodology:
- The analysis is based on Home Price Index data provided by Black Knight Inc., utilizing a weighted, repeat-sales index that measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing.
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Geographic Exclusions:
- The article mentions the exclusion of Teton County, Wyo., and Nantucket County, Mass., from certain graphics due to their outlier status with home prices exceeding $1.9 million.
In conclusion, the article paints a comprehensive picture of the nuanced dynamics influencing home prices across different regions, employing reliable data and insightful analysis. The trends discussed showcase the intricate interplay of economic, geographic, and external factors shaping the current state of the housing market.
