​​Amazon stock forecast 2030: Q4 net income growth boosts outlook (2024)

American e-commerce and technology company Amazon’s (AMZN) share prices fell over the past two weeks, reversing gains made after it reported rising income for the fourth quarter and full-year.

Seattle-headquartered Amazon provides e-commerce, cloud infrastructure and streaming services across digital content, including TV, movies, music and books. According to CompaniesMarketCap, Amazon is the fourth largest company by market capitalisation at $1.528trn.

The NASDAQ exchange-listed company stock price closed at $3,052.03 on 18 February, down 3.2% from $3,152.70 on 4 February. Amazon stock value also fell 1.3% compared with a year ago.

According to the Amazon historical stock price, shares have been rising in value since January 2020. The price hit an all-time high of $3,731.41 on 8 July 2021. Amazon stock came under pressure after outages on the cloud infrastructure Amazon Web Service on 7 December, and fell as low as $2,776.91 on 3 February 2022.

However, following the release of a strong quarterly and full-year financial result on 3 February, Amazon stock climbed back above $3,000. Cliff D’Arcy, of investment guide website The Motley Fool, wrote on 4 February:

“Despite a predicted sales slowdown and rapidly rising costs, investors have yet to lose faith in the e-commerce Goliath.”

Are you interested to learn more about the Amazon stock market? Read our article for the company’s long term stock forecast, including analysts’ forecasts for Amazon future stock price in 2030.

Amazon’s Q4 and 2021 net income jumped

Rising retail sales and non-operating income from Rivian Automotive stock investment boosted Amazon’s net sales and net income in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Amazon’s net sales in Q4 increased to $137.4bn, up 9% compared with the same quarter in 2020. The company’s Q4 net income nearly doubled year-on-year (YoY) to $14.3bn.

Higher Q4 net income was partly driven by Amazon’s common stock investment in recently listed Rivian Automotive, which generated a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8bn of non-operating income.

Amazon’s 2021 full-year sales jumped to $469.8bn, up 22% compared with 2020, while net income spiked by 57% YoY to $33.4bn.

Sales in North America generated the most revenue, accounting for 60% of the total, or $279.8bn in sales. They were followed by revenue from non-US markets, which made up 27% of total sales at $127.7bn. The company’s cloud infrastructure segment, Amazon Web Service (AWS), accounted for 13%, or $62.2bn, of the sales revenue.

Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, said:

“As expected over the holidays, we saw higher costs driven by labour supply shortages and inflationary pressures, and these issues persisted into the first quarter due to Omicron. Despite these short-term challenges, we continue to feel optimistic and excited about the business as we emerge from the pandemic.”

In Q1 2022, Amazon expects net sales to grow between 3%-8% YoY to $112bn to 117bn, and operating income at $3bn to $6bn.

Amazon said it will continue to invest heavily in Prime, its premium membership service that provides free, fast unlimited shipping for its e-commerce platform and digital content streaming (including TV, movies, music and books) for its members.

In response to higher wages and transportation costs, Amazon will be raising its Prime membership fee for the first time since 2018. In the US, the monthly Prime membership price will increase from $12.99 to $14.99 and annual membership from $119 to $139. For new Prime members, the price change will go into effect on 18 February 2022, and for current Prime members, the new price will apply after 25 March 2022, on the date of their next renewal.

Amazon Web Service

Amazon is continuing to expand its cloud infrastructure service. Below are some of the recent deals with major industry participants.

On 30 November 2021, the Nasdaq announced a multi-year partnership with AWS, with plans to migrate its North American markets to AWS in a phased approach.

Social networking and technology group Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and other companies, has selected AWS as its long-term strategic cloud provider.

In the automotive sphere, Netherlands-headquartered automotive maker Stellantis and electric truck maker Rivian selected AWS as their cloud provider for vehicle platforms. Self-driving technology company Aurora has also selected AWS in its development of machine learning training and cloud-based simulation workloads.

Amazon stock price target

In its Amazon stock analysis, TipRanks was bullish, with all 33 Wall Street analysts surveyed giving a consensus rating of ‘buy’ in the past three months.

At the time of writing (23 February), the average 12-month Amazon share price projection was $4,207.87 – 38.83% upside potential. Analysts forecast the Amazon stock price could rise to $5,000 or fall to $3,600.

Amazon stock price forecast 2022-2030

Given Amazon’s strong financial performance over the past year, several analysts held bullish forecasts in the mid-to-long term, giving their Amazon stock projection for 2030 above $5,000 a share.

According to share price forecasting service Wallet Investor, Amazon stock was predicted to rise to $3,710.93 in the next 12 months, and continue to increase to a new high at $6,373.27 in five years’ time.

Gov Capital’s Amazon share price forecast was more bullish, predicting Amazon stock price to hit $5,287.38 after a year.

Share price forecast provider AI Pickup expected Amazon to possibly exceed $5,000 by 2029. The data provider forecast the average Amazon share price at $3045.35 in 2022 and hit $960.47 or $2,433.22 in 2023. The downtrend was forecast to possibly continue in 2025, with the average stock price falling between $106.68 to $311.87, then rebounding to $2045.28 to $3,555.10 in 2027.

By 2028, the average stock price was forecast at $3,297.47, surging to $5,457.30 in 2029. The Amazon share price forecast 2030 was for $5,320.10.

According to Coin Price Forecast, Amazon was predicted to rise over the next eight years. The data provider forecast that the average Amazon share price could rise to $3,283 by the end of 2022, $3,481 in 2023, $3,875 in 2024, $4,298 in 2025, $5,154 in 2026, $5,994 in 2027, $6,440 in 2028 and $6,717 in 2029. Coin Price Forecast’s Amazon stock prediction for 2030 was at $7,019.

When looking at Amazon's future stock price, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts and price targets can be wrong. Analysts’ Amazon stock price predictions are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the stock’s performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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