Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative was derided by critics as “Star Wars.” But building off technological advances, the US military has spent more than $200 billion in the nearly four decades since working to make that science fiction a reality. Now, after Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his vast nuclear arsenal on high alert following his invasion of Ukraine, Americans might be wondering what kind of missile defense shield all that money and effort has produced.
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The answer, experts said, is not a very effective one.
The US only has a limited ability to destroy an incoming nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile, a study released last month by the American Physical Society concluded. It said that “the current capabilities are low and will likely continue to be low for the next 15 years” to protect the US against a strike from North Korea, which has an estimated 20 nuclear warheads and relatively unsophisticated missiles. The Pentagon disputes the findings and says the most recent tests show the system can handle a North Korean attack.
But the ability to defend against an attack by Russia, which is estimated to have nearly 6,000 nuclear warheads and highly sophisticated missile technology, is practically nonexistent. The US system is no match against a large number of incoming missiles — precisely the kind of attack that Russia would launch, experts said.
“This idea of an impenetrable shield against an enormous arsenal of Russian missiles is just a fantasy,” said Laura Grego, a fellow at MIT’s Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy who co-chaired the American Physical Society team that wrote the report. “It’s too hard to do.”
It’s so difficult that the US intentionally hasn’t even tried. Official Pentagon policy states that its system is only designed to protect the nation from nuclear missiles fired by a rogue state like North Korea. For a military superpower like Russia, the US depends on its own vast nuclear arsenal of about 5,400 warheads as a deterrent. It’s a doctrine known to those who grew up during the Cold War as mutual assured destruction or MAD — any nuclear attack on the US would result in a counterstrike that would annihilate both countries.
“The United States relies on nuclear deterrence to address the large and more sophisticated Russian and Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities,” according to the Defense Department’s most recent Missile Defense Review.
That’s probably surprising, and frightening, to many people, experts said.
“It’s fundamentally uncomfortable, this idea that we let the other guy have the ability to take us out and we expect the other guy to let us have the ability to do that, and we’re both going to stay rational and neither of us is going to cause the other to act on it,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
Analysts have raised concerns that Putin has not been acting rational in his attack on Ukraine and in statements like the one he made when launching the invasion.
“Anyone who tries to interfere with us, or even more so, to create threats for our country and our people, must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never before experienced in your history,” he said in a televised speech. A few days later, he announced Russia’s nuclear forces had been placed in “special combat readiness.” The US downplayed the move and gave no indication it changed its own nuclear readiness level, known by another frightening Cold War-era acronym called DEFCON.
Panda said many Americans don’t realize the US has little protection against a nuclear attack.
“I’ve seen it on my Twitter mentions,” he said. “I’ve been critical of setting up a no-fly zone partially on the basis of escalation risks and people reply, ‘Well, let the Russians try to nuke us. We have a missile shield, we’ll be fine.’ It’s just a very pervasive misunderstanding.”
The US must depend on nuclear deterrence because the arithmetic of our limited missile defense system and Russia’s massive arsenal doesn’t add up, said Robert Soofer, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy during the Trump administration. Russia can overwhelm the US system by launching many more nuclear missiles than it could possibly knock out with its small squadron of ground-based interceptors.
“There are ways that Russia can strike the United States that really makes the GBI system virtually useless,” said Soofer, a nonresident senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank. “If Russia wants to penetrate US missile defenses, they can.”
The main missile defense system protecting the United States was developed after President George W. Bush pulled the nation out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty it had signed with the Soviet Union. The move came shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks amid heightened concern about a nuclear attack from a rogue state like North Korea and freed the US from restrictions on deploying a national missile defense system.
In a rushed effort completed by 2004, the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system began with 30 interceptor missiles in underground silos: 26 at Fort Greely in Alaska and four more at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Guided by radar and satellite sensors, they’re designed to pursue an enemy missile into space. There, they release a “kill vehicle” to intercept and destroy the nuclear warhead above the atmosphere after it separates from the incoming missile.
The Obama administration added 14 more interceptor missiles at Fort Greely in 2017. Two years later the Trump administration started the process of adding 20 more missiles there with upgraded technology and the first are scheduled to be deployed by 2028.
The US has been testing elements of the system over the Pacific Ocean since 1999 with mixed results. Of the 19 attempts to destroy the target, 11 have been successful, including the two most recent ones in 2017 and 2019 that were conducted against realistic intercontinental ballistic missile targets, according to the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency.
“The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat,” Air Force Lieutenant General Samuel A. Greaves, then the agency’s director, said in a statement after the test.
That threat is rising. North Korea in recent days has conducted two tests of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, the White House said Thursday.
But Russian nuclear missiles are more sophisticated than those from North Korea, Soofer said. So the US would need to fire multiple interceptors at an incoming Russian missile to destroy its warheads, and the system could quickly get overwhelmed.
“At some point, we’re not going to be able to handle the Russian threat,” he said. “If there’s an unauthorized launch, an accidental launch, and it’s one or two missiles, I hope we can do something against it. But that’s not the way the Russians are going to operate. They’re not going to just launch one nuclear missile against the United States.”
To supplement the ground-based interceptors, the US has other ballistic missile defense systems designed to protect smaller areas. One is the Aegis system, which can fire missiles from Navy ships or land-based launchers to target short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Two others are the Patriot and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, mobile ground-based systems.
“If the Russians were to launch a modest attack against regional targets, we have some capacity for intercepting and defeating those attacks,” said Loren Thompson, a longtime defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank. “We have some reasonable prospects of intercepting nuclear attacks using shorter range missiles, but when it comes to long-range missiles with which Russia could attack America, we have virtually no defense.”
The US has two Aegis missile defense sites in NATO nations, one in Romania and another in Poland that the Pentagon expects to be operational by the end of this year. The US has said they’re designed to protect Europe against a possible ballistic missile attack from Iran and pose no threat to Russia. But the presence of those US facilities near Russia’s border has angered Putin, who has said they could be used to launch offensive missiles at Russia.
It’s a continuation of his displeasure with the US for its missile defense efforts, starting with his objection to the decision to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. In a 2018 speech, Putin said Russia was developing new nuclear weapons designed to evade US missile defenses.
Arms control advocates said that’s a downside of the US missile defense effort — it leads Russia and China to try to upgrade their nuclear weapons.
“We sort of end up with the worst of both worlds, where the American taxpayer ponies up for tens of billions of spending on a homeland missile defense system that doesn’t really work that well and causes Russia and China to take steps that further deteriorate our own security,” Panda said.
Despite the limited capabilities of the missile defense system to protect the US, Soofer said it’s still an important part of our national defense.
“The only rational reason for Russia or China to attack us with nuclear weapons is if they thought they could disarm us and keep us from retaliating,” he said. “If we have missile defenses, even if they’re not 100 percent effective, they still don’t know how many of their missiles are going to get through. You complicate their attack and then you enhance deterrence.”
Despite Putin’s threats, Soofer said there is little appetite in Washington for a costly expansion of the US missile defense system to be able to repel a Russian attack. Such a system probably would require space-based interceptors — Reagan’s original idea that proved infeasible in the 1980s and a concept that Soofer described as “the third rail of missile defense politics on Capitol Hill because nobody wants to supposedly militarize the heavens.”
But Grego said a spaced-based system remains infeasible today, potentially requiring thousands of interceptors because of the complications of orbits and the Earth’s rotation.
“Even if you had a Death Star, you need lots of Death Stars,” she said, harkening back to “Star Wars.” “For strategic missile defense, which is defending the US homeland from Russian missiles, it isn’t really a political decision. Physics has done that for you. It’s just too hard. You’re not going to do it.”
Jim Puzzanghera can be reached at jim.puzzanghera@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter: @JimPuzzanghera.
FAQs
The United States currently deploys three terminal-phase missile defense systems: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD); The Patriot missile defense system; and. Aegis BMD.
What nuclear defense system does the US have? ›
The primary American defense against nuclear attack is the ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD).
How likely is it for Russia to nuke the US? ›
But if you happen to live next to an ICBM silo, fear not. There's a "0.0% chance" that Russia could hope to survive an act of nuclear aggression against the US, according to Schwartz.
Does Russia have a nuclear defense system? ›
Russia currently has an estimated 1,600 deployed tactical nuclear weapons, with another 2,400 strategic nuclear weapons tied to intercontinental ballistic missiles. This makes Russia the largest nuclear power in the world. All of these weapons are tied into the Perimeter, an automatic nuclear weapons control system.
Can 1 nuke destroy a whole state? ›
A single nuclear weapon can destroy a city and kill most of its people. Several nuclear explosions over modern cities would kill tens of millions of people. Casualties from a major nuclear war between the US and Russia would reach hundreds of millions.
Can the US shoot down all nukes? ›
The US only has a limited ability to destroy an incoming nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile, a study released last month by the American Physical Society concluded.
Can a nuclear missile be stopped? ›
Can we stop a nuclear attack? Once a nuclear missile has been launched, there is very limited capabilities of stopping that missile. No nation has a credible system in place to combat launched nuclear weapons. However, there are steps we can take to prevent a nuclear missile from being launched.
What country has the best missile defense system? ›
#1 – Russian anti-aircraft system S-400 Triumf
One system containing up to 8 divisions (divisions) can control up to 72 launchers, with a maximum of 384 missiles (including missiles with a range of less than 250 km (160 miles)).
Can China hit US with missiles? ›
Pentagon Estimates China Has Doubled Number of Missiles That Can Hit U.S. A new U.S. military report has assessed that its Chinese counterpart has doubled the number of far-reaching missiles capable of hitting the United States over the course of the past year.
Can the US shoot down an ICBM? ›
The American Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, formerly known as National Missile Defense (NMD), was first tested in 1997 and had its first successful intercept test in 1999. Instead of using an explosive charge, it launches a hit-to-kill kinetic projectile to intercept an ICBM.
Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and Western Texas as some of the safest locales in the case of nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear.
How long would it take for a nuke from Russia to hit the US? ›
It would take a land- based missile about 30 minutes to fly between Russia and the United States; a submarine-based missile could strike in as little as 10 to 15 minutes after launch.
What is the safest country in the nuclear war? ›
The study involved looking at abrupt sunlight-reducing situations. Scientists have recently revealed that Australia and New Zealand are best placed to survive a nuclear apocalypse and help reboot collapsed human civilisation.
Can US defend against hypersonic missiles? ›
"Aegis SBT is the only active defense available today to counter hypersonic missile threats," he added. In order to expand the battlespace against hypersonic threats, the agency has initiated the Aegis Glide Phase Interceptor program.
Can the US intercept an ICBM? ›
A new study sponsored by the American Physical Society concludes that U.S. systems for intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles cannot be relied on to counter even a limited nuclear strike and are unlikely to achieve reliability within the next 15 years.
Which is the best air Defence system in the world? ›
Overview – Undoubtedly, the best air defence system in the world is S – 400. Countries like Turkey and India opted to buy this air defence system even after threats of sanctions by the United States.
Which country has the doomsday device? ›
The Dead Hand (or "Perimeter") system built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War has been called a "doomsday machine" due to its fail-deadly design and nuclear capabilities.
How long would it take a nuclear missile to reach the US from North Korea? ›
Chinese study: North Korean missile could reach US in 33 minutes.
Does US have hypersonic missiles? ›
There are two main hypersonic weapons system concepts — the glide vehicle and air-breathing missile — that the US is developing. While the weapons systems themselves are conventional, or non-nuclear, China is developing nuclear-capable missiles, as the 2021 tests showed.
What countries would survive a nuclear war? ›
The study published in the journal Risk Analysis describes Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu as the island countries most capable of producing enough food for their populations after an “abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophe” such as a nuclear war, super volcano or asteroid strike.
The resulting inferno, and the blast wave that follows, instantly kill people directly in their path. But a new study finds that some people two to seven miles away could survive—if they're lucky enough to find just the right kind of shelter.
How many tsar bombs does it take to destroy the earth? ›
A new video simulates the explosion of thermal nuclear weapons in the Challenger Deep. Tsar Bomba is the most powerful nuclear bomb ever made. One bomb would be stanched, but a million could easily destroy the Earth.
What city would get nuked first? ›
The cities that would most likely be attacked are Washington, New York City and Los Angeles. Using a van or SUV, the device could easily be delivered to the heart of a city and detonated.
Is Canada safe from nuclear war? ›
Canada is a top nuclear war survivor. NORAD is Canada's primary military partnership with the US. They even organize military drills. If a nuclear bomb attacked one nation, the other would likely help.
Can a supersonic missile be intercepted? ›
The Kh-47 Kinzhal is a hypersonic ballistic missile. It travels 10 times the speed of sound and can be fired far from the battlefield, making them difficult to intercept.
Can anything shoot down a nuclear missile? ›
Modern nuclear bombs are so devastating that they can flatten cities in an instant and destroy anything in their path in seconds. However, there are also anti-ballistic missiles that are believed to be able to destroy such deadly nuclear missiles before they reach their targets.
Which is the most powerful missile in the world? ›
The BrahMos (also designated as PJ-10) is a medium-range Ramjet Supersonic Cruise Missile that can be launched from submarine, ships, airplanes or land. The BrahMos is notably the fastest supersonic cruise missile in the world.
Who has the best nuclear weapons? ›
Countries' Nuclear Arsenals from Largest to Smallest
- Russia (5,977 warheads)
- United States (5,428)
- China (350)
- France (290)
- United Kingdom (225)
- Pakistan (165)
- India (160)
- Israel (90)
1. United States Of America. US Military has the biggest defence budget in the world. They are known for their most powerful Air Force on the planet, named as United States Air Force (USAF).
What is the longest range missile in the US? ›
The Minuteman III inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) has the longest range of operational missiles in the United States, with a range of 13,000 kilometers. With a range of 12,000 kilometers, the submarine-launched Trident missile has the second-longest range among American missiles.
1. LGM-30 Minuteman III (United states)-Minuteman missiles have existed since the late 1950s. These weapons provide quick reactions, inertial guidance, high reliability, high accuracy, and significant, long distance target capabilities.
Can China overpower the US? ›
There is still much work to be done to propel China to the top of the world's economy, but it is certainly possible that the Chinese economy can surpass the power of the US by 2050. It may also be too early to make definitive projections of China's future.
What is China's secret weapon? ›
It has now come to light that China possesses the deadly Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)-equipped missile, the Dong Feng-17 (DF-17). This medium-range munition is capable of carrying conventional as well as nuclear warheads and has a reported speed of Mach 5-10.
Does China have better missiles than USA? ›
STRATCOM Says China Has More ICBM Launchers Than The United States – We Have Questions. In early-February 2023, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) had informed Congress that China now has more launchers for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) than the United States.
Can lasers stop ICBMs? ›
At the latter level of intensity, a laser could deposit enough energy on a hostile ballistic missile during its vulnerable boost phase to destroy the missile.
Which country has the longest range missile? ›
Russia's R-36M (SS-18 Satan) missile is the world's longest range and the heaviest in the world with a weight of 8.8 tonnes, with a strike range of 16,000 kilometres.
Can an ICBM reach U.S. from Russia? ›
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in Russia's possession have the capability to reach and destroy major global cities such as London or Washington.
What state is best to avoid nuclear war? ›
Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and Western Texas as some of the safest locales in the case of nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear power plants.
Where is the best place to go if a nuclear war broke out? ›
The safest place: the corners of a room, author Ioannis Kokkinakis of Cyprus' University of Nicosia said in a statement. “Even in the front room facing the explosion, one can be safe from the high airspeeds if positioned at the corners of the wall facing the blast,” Kokkinakis added.
Where is the best place in your house to survive a nuclear war? ›
The safest place in your home during an radiation emergency is a centrally located room or basem*nt. This area should have as few windows as possible. The further your shelter is from windows, the safer you will be.
Hyping up a then-new hypersonic nuclear-capable missile, Russian state TV said the Pentagon, Camp David, Jim Creek Naval Radio Station in Washington, Fort Ritchie in Maryland, and McClellan Air Force Base in California, would be targets, according to Reuters.
How much warning would we have for a nuke? ›
Four-minute warning - Wikipedia.
How long would it take for the Earth to recover from nuclear war? ›
This is a true nuclear winter. Nor is it just a short blip. Temperatures still drop below freezing in summer for several years thereafter, and global precipitation falls by half by years three and four. It takes over a decade for anything like climatic normality to return to the planet.
How to survive world war 3? ›
Stay clean and destroy potentially contaminated clothing. Wash yourself heavily with soap and “clean” water. Stay positive. Should we ever experience a devastating event such as a nuclear blast, we will all need to band together and lean on each other to make through each day going forward.
How many nuclear missile defense systems does the US have? ›
The Ground-based Midcourse (GMD) is the only system that is currently in operation to defend the continental United States, and it has 44 interceptors based in Alaska and California.
How effective is the US nuclear defense system? ›
The GMD system has been effective 55% of the time in highly-scripted tests. In order to reach a confidence level of at least 90%, three interceptors would need to be fired at a single warhead.
Where would a nuclear missile hit the US? ›
Irwin Redlener at Columbia University specialises in disaster preparedness and notes that there are six cities in the US that are more likely to be targeted in a nuclear attack – New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington DC.
What is the US best missile defense system? ›
The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS™, is a highly adaptable combat-proven medium-range air defense solution.
Can a nuke be stopped? ›
Can we stop a nuclear attack? Once a nuclear missile has been launched, there is very limited capabilities of stopping that missile. No nation has a credible system in place to combat launched nuclear weapons. However, there are steps we can take to prevent a nuclear missile from being launched.
Where is the best place to survive a nuclear war in the US? ›
Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and Western Texas as some of the safest locales in the case of nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear. Unfortunately, there is no completely safe way to survive a nuclear war.
The study involved looking at abrupt sunlight-reducing situations. Scientists have recently revealed that Australia and New Zealand are best placed to survive a nuclear apocalypse and help reboot collapsed human civilisation.
What is the best country to survive a nuclear war? ›
Australia and New Zealand best placed to survive nuclear apocalypse, study finds. The lucky country can count on one more piece of good fortune, with researchers finding Australia – followed by neighbour New Zealand – best placed to survive a nuclear winter and help reboot a collapsed human civilisation.
How deep underground do you have to be to survive a nuclear blast? ›
BUILD UNDERGROUND
Building down to a depth of about ten feet will provide ample protection, but any deeper makes it hard to dig out in the event of a collapse.
Which country has the most advanced missile technology? ›
DF-41 (China)
The most powerful Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) developed in China is The DF-41 which is one of the deadliest ICBMs in the world. Based on an 8-axle launcher vehicle its first test launch took place in 2013 and the second followed in 2014.
