Foreword
All but three equities and all of the funds listed in this March monthly pay batch live up to the ideal of paying annual dividends from a $1K investment exceeding their single share price. Here, in the MoPay collection, lie affordable (yet volatile and risky) bargains. The dogcatcher rule of thumb is: one metric ($1k invested dividend income>1 share price) fits all!
Now, over four years past the 2020 Ides of March market dip, and before other pull-backs yet to come, the time to buy top yield MoPay dogs may be now.
To learn which of these 82 MoPay equities pay "safer" dividends, see my dividend dogcatcher investing group list after March 25th. Simply click on the last bullet point in the Summary section above.
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated Top Ten MoPay Equities Could Net 13.63% to 36.2% Gains By March 2025
Five of ten top-yield MoPay stocks (shaded in the chart below) were verified as being among the top-ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices. Thus, the Dogcatcher yield-based strategy for this MoPay group, as graded by broker estimates this month, proved 50% accurate.
Estimated dividend payouts from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest-yielding stocks, plus analysts median 1yr target prices for those stocks, as reported by YCharts, produced the gains estimates below. (Note: target prices from lone analysts were not counted.) Ten probable profit-generating trades to March, 2025 were:
Ellington Financial Inc (EFC) was forecast to net $362.03 based on the median of target price estimates from 7 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 92% greater than the market as a whole.
EPR Properties (EPR) netted $227.52 based on the median of target price estimates from 10 analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 68% greater than the market as a whole.
Dynex Capital Inc (DX) netted $212.76 based on the median of target price estimates from 3 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 33% greater than the market as a whole.
Pennant Park Investment (PNNT) netted $197.60 based on based on the median of target price estimates from 8 analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 53% over the market as a whole.
Financial 15 Split Corp (OTCPK:FNNCF) netted $177.40 based on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% under the market as a whole.
ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) netted $176.74 based on the median of target price estimates from 2 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% greater than the market as a whole.
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) netted $171.25 based on the median of target price estimates from 11 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 45% greater than the market as a whole.
Stellus Capital Investment Corp (SCM) netted $170.07, based on the median of target price estimates from 6 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 17% greater than the market as a whole.
Gladstone Capital Corp (GLAD) netted $140.86 based on the median of target price estimates from 3 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 25% greater than the market as a whole.
Gladstone Commercial Corp (GOOD) netted $136.31 based on the median of target price estimates from 4 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% more than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was 19.72% on $1k invested in each of these ten MoPay stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 39% greater than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called "underdogs."
March Monthly Pay Dividend Data
Three lists produce numerous actionable conclusions and several more un-numbered results. To draw these conclusions and results, March 18, 2024 closing prices and estimated annual dividends were referenced from YCharts. In the process, monthly pay equity (1) yield and (2) upside potential lists were compared and contrasted against (3) the high yield (and higher risk) MoPay CEICs/ETFs/ETNs list.
Monthly Pay Dividend Qualities
Quarterly, Semi-Annual and Annual dividend investors anxiously await announcements from a firm, fund, or brokerage to learn if their next dividend will be higher, lower, or paid at all.
Monthly pay stocks, funds, trusts, and partnerships inform the holder every four and one third weeks by check and/or statement. If the entity reduces or suspends a payment, the holder can sell out of the investment immediately to avoid future losses.
This advantage has been curtailed when companies suddenly cut monthly dividends to save cash. Numerous prominent MoPay firms declared dividend cuts between May and June, 2020, including: Oxford Square Capital Corp; Partners Real Estate Investment Trust; Orchid Island Capital Inc; Cross Timbers Royalty Trust; H&R Real Estate Investment Trust; BTB Real Estate Investment Trust; American Finance Trust Inc; Mesa Royalty Trust; Solar Senior Capital Ltd; Ellington Financial Inc; Dividend Select 15 Corp; Chesswood Group Ltd; Sabine Royalty Trust; TORC Oil & Gas Ltd; Freehold Royalties Ltd; ARC Resources Ltd; Inter Pipeline Ltd; San Juan Basin Royalty Trust; Ag Growth International Inc.
Former MoPay top ten regular by yield. Bluerock Residential announced December 2019 it was retreating to quarterly dividend payments "in keeping with industry tradition." Bluerock Residential company has since gone private and is no longer listed publicly.
That “industry tradition” continued with Armour Residential REIT and Stellus Capital Investment Corp. both transitioned to QPay in June, 2020. Within three months, however, both SCM and ARR returned to MoPay mode.
Top yield stock for July, 2018, June 2021, and December 2023, Orchid Island Capital, released this cautionary note with its monthly dividend announcements back in 2018: "The Company has not established a minimum distribution payment level and is not assured of its ability to make distributions to stockholders in the future."
ORC directors proceeded to back-up their words with actions cutting the dividend from $0.14 to $0.11 in February, to $0.09 in March, to $0.08 in September, 2018, and to $0.055 for May, 2020. However in August. 2020 ORC monthly dividend increased from $0.06 to $0.065 for September, October, and into 2021.
ORC, however, currently pays a $0.12 monthly dividend (falling from $0.16 in October, 2023) and is again listed here.
The U.S. exchange MoPay segment is volatile, transitive, recovering, and for 2024 has achieved recovery to full strength. More trades in monthly pay equities are available from Canadian firms, many of which are also listed on U.S. OTC (pink sheet) exchanges. Active listed MoPays priced over $2 were up from 71 in October to 73 in February 2021, and since October 2021 at the full strength of over 100 active, not seen for years. This list found itself pared to 82 by keeping the share price limit at $5 and not listing dividends yielding under 3%.
List One:
US Exchange Traded MoPay Dividend Equities by Yield
Top ten of these U.S. exchange-listed monthly pay dividend equities showing the best yields for March, represented just three of the eleven Morningstar market sectors. Representative firms split 6, 1, and 3, between the real estate, energy, and financial services sectors, respectively.
First place, by yield, belonged to the first of three financial services sector members, Financial 15 Split Corp [1]. The others placed ninth and tenth, Prospect Capital Corp (PSEC) [9], and Pennant Park Investment Corp [10].
Six from the real estate sector, placed second through sixth and eighth: True North Commercial REIT (OTC:TUERF) [2]; Orchid Island Capital (ORC) [3]; ARMOUR Residential REIT [4]; AGNC Investment Corp [5]; Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN) [6]; Prospect Capital Corp [8].
Finally, the seventh slot went to the energy sector representative, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) [7] and completed the March MoPay top-ten equities list by yield.
List Two:
Monthly Pay Dividend Equities by Price Upsides (and Downsides)
Results from YCharts, shown below, show 30 MoPay dividend stocks (as of market closing price March 18) compared with the median of analyst target prices one year-out. The ten top-stocks displayed 0% to 23.48% price upsides for the next year.
Six (tinted) of ten on this top ten price upside list were also members of the top ten list by yield. The first five places on this upside list went to: Ellington Financial Inc [1], Dynex Capital Inc [2], Pennant Park Investment [3], Stellus Capital Investment [4], and Gladstone Commercial Corp [5].
The lower level (by yield) five were, Gladstone Capital Corp [6], Pennant Park Floating Rate [7], ARMOUR Residential REIT [8], AGNC Investment Corp [9], and Financial 15 Split Corp [10].
Price upside, of course, was defined as the difference between the current price and analyst target one-year median price targets for each stock.
Ten MoPay stocks showing the top estimated price gains for March, 2025 were gleaned from 30 selected by yield. Three to nine analysts have historically provided the most accurate median target price estimates.
List Three:
MoPay Dividend Closed End Investment Companies, Exchange Traded Funds, and Notes, by Yield
Eighty top monthly dividend paying Closed End Funds, Exchange Traded Funds and Notes listed below were culled from nearly 800 candidates. Yields of 10.9% or greater, calculated as of March 18, determined the top ten. All 80 show assets under management ((AUM)) greater than $30M and are priced above $6.00 per share.
The top-ten monthly-paying dividend investment companies, funds, & notes. showing the biggest yields for per YChart & Yahoo Finance data, featured nine open-ended investment companies [ETFs], one uncollateralized debt instrument [ETN], and no closed-ended investment companies [CEICs].
The nine open ended investment companies (ETFs) placed first, through ninth: YieldMax ARKK Option Income Strategy ETF (OARK) [1]; YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF (CONY) [2] YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY) [3]; Defiance Nasdaq 100 Enhanced Options Inc (QQQY) [4]; YieldMax AMD Option Income Strategy ETF (AMDY) [5]; Defiance R2000 Enhanced Options Income Strategy ETF (IWMY) [6]; YieldMax NFLX Option Income Strategy ETF (NFLY) [7]; Tesla (TSLA) Yield Shares Properties ETF (YTSL.NO) [8], Defiance S&P 500 Enhanced Options Income ETF (JEPY) [9].
Finally, one uncollateralized debt instrument [ETN] placed tenth, iPath GEMS ETN (OTC:JEMTF) [10].
to complete the top-ten Exchange Traded Notes, Exchange Traded Funds, and Closed End Investment Companies list for March 24-25.
Compare Equity To Fund Performance
Note that March 2024-25 top-ten equity dividends are currently priced 1% under those of the top ten funds. Last September they were 2% higher. Last June they were 1% higher. The price differences were found in the outlandishly high dividends attributed to the top equities or funds. Again this month the author lopped the three top funds paying 40% to 95% yields off the Funds list. Without those odd aberrations, funds are generally priced higher than the equities due to the higher overhead costs of fund management.
Background and Actionable Conclusions
In June 2012 readers suggested the author include these funds, trusts, and partnerships in the MoPay article. A list of MoPay equities to buy and hold in September 2012 resulted from those reader suggestions supplemented with a high yield collection from here. That list was supplemented by an upside potential article in October and a upside vs. buy & hold in November. Another list factored December 2012 reader comments.
A new decade of 2020 that began in January, and continued to February, March, April, early May, and mid May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December. The progression continued in 2021 in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, and December. And carried-on in 2022, January, February, March, April, May, June/July, August, September, October, November, December, and again, in 2023, January, February, March, April. May, June, July, August, September, October, and December.
Now in, 2024, we continue in January, February, and March to compare and contrast MoPay equity upside potential to the yield (and higher risk/volatility) should any investor be tempted to buy and hold Closed End Investments or Exchange Traded Funds and Notes.
Yield Metrics Showed A 17.3% Disadvantage For The Five Lowest-Priced Of Ten High-Yield MoPay Equities In March
Ten monthly pay stock equities were ranked by yield. Those results, verified by YCharts, Seeking Alpha, and Yahoo Finance, produced the following charts.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest Priced of Top Ten High Yield MoPay Dividend Stocks (11) Would Produce 14.65% VS. (12) 17.72% Net Gains from All Ten by March, 2025
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five Lowest priced stocks in the top ten MoPay dividend dog kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 17.3% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The ninth lowest-priced MoPay dividend dog, Ellington Financial Inc, was predicted to deliver the best net gain of 36.20%.
Lowest priced five MoPay dividend stocks estimated as of March 18 were: Prospect Capital Corp; San Juan Basin Royalty Trust; Financial 15 Split Corp; Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT; Pennant Park Investment Corp, with prices ranging from $5.46 to $6.60.
Higher priced five MoPay dividend equities, estimated as of February 16, were: True North Commercial REIT; Orchid Island Capital Inc; AGNC Investment Corp; Ellington Financial Inc; ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc, whose prices ranged from $6.83 to $18.69.
This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The same technique, you now see, is today useful to find long-term rewarding dogs in the MoPay kennel.
The added scale of projected gains, based on analyst targets, contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. It is also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.
Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of the change.
Gains/declines as reported do not factor-in any tax problems resulting from dividend, profit, or return of capital distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Afterword
If somehow you missed the suggestion of the stocks ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:
March 82 MoPay Equities List
(Alphabetical by Ticker Symbol)
All but one equity and all of the funds listed in this February collection of monthly-paying dividend dogs live up to the ideal of annual dividends from $1K invested exceeding their single share price. Here in the MoPay collection lie affordable yet volatile and risky bargains.
March Ideal MoPay Equities List
(Dividend from $1K Invested > Share Price)
Now, four years beyond the 2020 Ides of March dip, and before more pull-backs yet to come, the time to buy top yield MoPay dogs may now be at hand. There are more to choose from. This month’s list of 82 showed a maximum yield top 18.74%, resulting from setting the minimum price per share for selection at $5, and holding the minimum yields to 3%. When bears are back, bargains reappear.
March’s list of 82 showed 79 ideal candidates whose dividends from $1K invested exceeded the single share price.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your MoPay dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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