7 Ways to Lose Money on Bonds (2024)

Many investors see investing in the fixed-income market as a way to preserve capital. The irony is that there are a variety of ways of losing money on bonds—some well-known and others not so much.

Here we attempt to survey the leading causes of loss, both literal and in terms of real return so that you can learn to avoid potential problems and better prepare for the inevitable ones.

Key Takeaways

  • Bonds are often touted as less risky than stocks—and for the most part, they are—but that does not mean you cannot lose money owning bonds.
  • Bond prices decline when interest rates rise, when the issuer experiences a negative credit event, or as market liquidity dries up.
  • Inflation can also erode the returns on bonds, as well as taxes or regulatory changes.
  • Bond mutual funds can help diversify a portfolio but also come with their own risks, costs, and concerns.

1. Trading Losses

Losing money is easy if you're buying and selling bonds as a trader. Here are the principal ways that playing with fixed-income securities can cause you to bleed cash.

Interest Rate Moves

As all bond traders know, when rates go up, bond prices fall. If you haven't read the rate climate effectively, you're going to get hurt. This is probably the single greatest source of trading losses in the market.

Credit Downgrades

A couple of bad quarters or a punishing one-time event can force rating agencies to consider downgrading the creditworthiness of a borrower. Should even a single notch be chipped from an issuer's credit rating, its bonds will take a significant hit.

Restructurings/Corporate Events

When companies are merged or bought out, their entire capital structure can change overnight. Changes in corporate structure could leave bondholders facing everything from a steep loss in bond value to a big, fat nothing on their investment.

Some questions around a restructuring may include:

  • What sort of financial shape the companies are in
  • What the prospectus of the former bond stipulated
  • What the new agreement mandate is

Liquidity-Related Losses (Wide Trading Spreads)

For the most part, fixed-income products trade over the counter (OTC), meaning there's not always a lot of visibility in certain issues. You will not have access to all the relevant pricing information—specifically, information about the all-important bid-ask spread. If the spread is particularly wide, you could run into trouble.

For example, you might buy ABC Company's bond for $96 when its bid-ask spread was $88-$96 and then sell it a month later when it had appreciated and the bid-ask was $95-$103. But the price you are able to sell at is $95, or a dollar less than your initial purchase price. The wide spread, in this case, suggests that your trade was generally correct, but you lost where it counted in terms of it being a relatively illiquid market.

2. Inflation

Your next opportunity to lose money comes from inflation. Very briefly, if you're earning 5% per year in your fixed-income portfolio, and inflation is running at 6%, you're losing money. It's as simple as that.

The U.S. government targets an annual inflation rate of 2%.

Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), called "real return bonds" for Canadian investors, are supposed to be the answer to that inflation issue. Unfortunately, there are still several distinct ways to lose money on these investments.

Deflation

This is not an everyday occurrence but certainly a possibility. Because of the way values on TIPS are calculated, an extended period of deflation could return you less cash on maturity than you originally invested. Your purchasing power might be intact, but you would emerge with less than a regular bond would have paid you.

Consumer Price Index

Changes in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could also bring losses. Again, not a daily occurrence, but it has been done and new methods of calculation are regularly being tested and promoted to result in a reduction in your TIPS' value.

Taxation

Finally, TIPS are taxed on both the yield and capital-appreciation (CPI-linked) portions of the bond. It's quite possible that high bouts of inflation would trigger significant tax bills that would render the bond's real yield lower than the rate of inflation. Tax-sheltered accounts are therefore best for holding these instruments.

3. Bond Funds

There are two distinct ways to lose on bond funds.

Redemptions

Should there be a large call to redeem from the fund (on a popular manager's departure, suspicion of corruption, etc.), management might be forced to sell off significant holdings to pay out investors. Should these issues be illiquid, both the fund and investors would realize losses. In some instances, redemption fees might also add significantly to losses.

Poor Asset Management

Losses in funds are more commonly the result of overly aggressive managers chasing after yield from lower-quality issues, which then default. In addition, actively managed funds tend to charge higher fees and create a larger number of taxable events.

4. Foreign Bonds

Here are four exciting ways to lose your hard-earned income investing in foreign-bond issues.

Exchange Controls

Your foreign-bond-issuing nation decides to impose exchange controls; governmental limitations on the purchase and/or sale of currencies. No money can leave the country.

Currency Rate Fluctuations

The exchange rate between your bond-issuing nation and your own takes a turn for the worse. You will very quickly lose (a lot) of money. The same goes for rising interest rates in that foreign country. Bond laws are universal: The price of your bond will drop as rates rise.

Foreign Taxation

Some friendly foreign-bond-issuing nations have not-so-friendly tax regimes. You may end up with a lot less once the local (foreign) tax man bites. If you come away with lower yields than inflation, again, you lose.

Nationalization

If you're searching for yield in far-off lands, chances are you'll encounter countries where the government can legally take over businesses by decree. When this happens, you will experience firsthand how rating agencies and the markets feel about nationalization (hint: They don't feel good). And that's assuming the corporate bond's obligations aren't immediately declared null and void by the government.

5. Mortgage-Backed Securities

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are collateralized by the monthly mortgage payments of John Smith. When he runs into personal financial problems, or when the value of his house depreciates significantly, he may default on his mortgage. If enough neighbors join him, your MBS will lose a great deal of value and likely a good deal of liquidity. When you finally decide to sell it—if you can sell it—you will lose money.

This is what happened, to the tune of billions of dollars' worth, in the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008-09.

6. Municipal Bonds

Here are three ways to lose with municipal bonds, also known as "munis."

Tax Decreases

Yes, that's right, decreases. Municipal bonds are generally valued for being exempt from federal taxation—and often from state and local taxes. So long as those taxes are significant, there's an advantage to buying munis. But when tax rates decline, so too does the value of holding municipals, along with their prices.

Changing Regulations

In order to maintain their tax-exempt status, securities like municipal bonds also have to adhere to demanding legal requirements. But laws change regularly, and so, too, does the status of municipal-bond issuers. Should this occur, your muni will be repriced against similar, higher-yielding (and lower-priced) issues.

For example, municipalities sometimes (though not often) have their credit ratings downgraded after agencies decide that a recent budget contains imprudent spending or an investment portfolio has suffered significant losses. A downgrade might also occur if the company that is insuring the bond loses its AAA rating.

Private Issuers

Finally, beware of private companies or organizations that issue municipal bonds under the name of the municipality in which they operate (for example, an airline selling a municipal bond to build a new terminal). Even though the bonds received AAA municipal ratings, the guarantors were private companies—and when and if these companies happened to default, the bond goes under.

7. Certificates of Deposit

Admittedly, these are exactly the same as bonds, but since they often serve the same income purpose in a portfolio, we're including them. Cashing in your certificate of deposit (CD) early (where permitted) may trigger a penalty. When this penalty is netted out against accrued interest and inflation, chances are pretty good you'll lose money.

Do Bonds Lose Money in a Recession?

Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well. Bonds, particularly U.S. government bonds, are considered a safe haven and are therefore more attractive and in demand in such market scenarios.

Where Should I Invest My Money Before the Market Crashes?

Having a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other assets is the best protection against a downturn. The reason is that all of these instruments are different and will respond differently to market crashes. Some, such as government bonds, may do well. Having a diversified portfolio increases the chances of blunting the impact of a market crash.

Are Bonds a Good Investment?

Determining what a "good" investment is will vary on the investor, their financial goals, and their risk tolerance. In addition, there are many different types of bonds: corporate bonds, municipal bonds, government bonds, and so on. In general, bonds are a good asset to have to diversify one's portfolio and can provide a steady income stream.

The Bottom Line

Can you lose money on bonds and other fixed-income investments? Yes, indeed; there are far more ways to lose money in the bond market than people imagine. The good news is that, if you know the most common causes of losses, you can avoid them, you will be better able to avoid these financial misfortunes before they occur.

7 Ways to Lose Money on Bonds (2024)

FAQs

How can you lose money on bonds? ›

You can lose money on a bond if you sell it before the maturity date for less than you paid or if the issuer defaults on their payments. Before you invest. Often involves risk.

Will bonds recover in 2023? ›

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index rose 3.7% in 2023 through Thursday after a 16% decline last year. The S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 12% in 2022 and is up 3.1% since.

Can you lose money on US Treasury bonds? ›

Treasury bonds are considered risk-free assets, meaning there is no risk that the investor will lose their principal. In other words, investors that hold the bond until maturity are guaranteed their principal or initial investment.

What should I replace bonds with? ›

The Best Bond Alternatives Right Now
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are one of the most popular bond alternatives. ...
  • Dividend Stocks. ...
  • Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) ...
  • Preferred Stocks. ...
  • High-Yield Savings Accounts. ...
  • Alternative Assets.

Why do bonds go down? ›

Bond prices share an inverse relationship with interest rates. that means when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Bonds compete against each other on the interest income they provide to make them seem attractive to investors.

How much have bonds dropped in 2022? ›

Such long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in 2022, as measured by an index tracking long-term zero-coupon bonds. That's a record low dating to 1754, McQuarrie said. You'd have to go all the way back to the Napoleonic War era for the second-worst showing, when long bonds lost 19% in 1803.

What is the safest investment right now? ›

Here are the best low-risk investments in February 2023:
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • Series I savings bonds.
  • Short-term certificates of deposit.
  • Money market funds.
  • Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
  • Corporate bonds.
  • Dividend-paying stocks.
  • Preferred stocks.
Feb 1, 2023

Will bonds keep up with inflation? ›

Inflation and changing interest rates impact a bond's price. A rise in either interest rates or the inflation rate usually make bond prices drop. Inflation and interest rates move in the opposite direction from bond prices.

Are bonds going to bounce back? ›

We see opportunities in 2023 for the bond market to provide attractive yields at lower risk than we've seen for several years. It has been a long time coming, but 2023 looks to be the year that bonds will be back in fashion with investors.

How risky is a US Treasury bond? ›

Treasury bonds are considered low-risk investments that are generally risk-free when held to maturity, since being backed fully by the U.S. government makes the odds of default extremely low. Relative to higher-risk securities, like stocks, Treasury bonds have lower returns.

How do you lose money on Treasury bills? ›

The price of T-bills can also be affected by the prevailing rate of inflation. For example, if the inflation rate stands at 5% and the T-bill discount rate is 3%, it becomes uneconomical to invest in T-bills since the real rate of return will be a loss.

What happens to bonds when stock market crashes? ›

When the bond market crashes, bond prices plummet quickly, just as stock prices fall dramatically during a stock market crash. Bond market crashes are often triggered by rising interest rates. Bonds are loans from investors to the bond issuer in exchange for interest earned.

What is safer than bonds? ›

In general, stocks are riskier than bonds, simply due to the fact that they offer no guaranteed returns to the investor, unlike bonds, which offer fairly reliable returns through coupon payments.

Where can I put money instead of bonds? ›

The Best Bond Alternatives To Invest In
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) ...
  • Real Estate Crowdfunding Companies. ...
  • Preferred Stocks. ...
  • Dividend Stocks. ...
  • Fixed Annuities. ...
  • High-Yield Savings Accounts. ...
  • Real Estate Debt. ...
  • Worthy Bonds.
Jul 22, 2022

What is better than savings bonds? ›

If you're saving for education or retirement, Roth IRA and 529 accounts are popular options to explore. And they may offer better tax deductions or a higher Annual Percentage Yield (APY) than a savings bond.

Do bonds go up when the stock market goes down? ›

The reason: stocks and bonds typically don't move in the same direction—when stocks go up, bonds usually go down, and when stocks go down, bonds usually go up—and investing in both typically provides protection for your portfolio.

Will bonds go up in 2022? ›

Bond yields rose in 2022 primarily because the Fed pivoted to a much more hawkish position, as investors anticipated aggressive interest rate hikes to rein in inflation,” says Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

What causes bond funds to go up or down? ›

If interest rates rise, bond prices usually decline, and if interest rates decline, bond prices usually rise. This inverse relationship is important to understand. The longer a bond's maturity, the greater the bond's interest rate risk.

Is now a good time to buy bonds 2022? ›

As a series of interest rate hikes eroded the value of bonds in 2022, it also did 2023 bond investors a couple of favors. For one, bonds are now offering more attractive interest payments to investors. At the beginning of 2022, a six-month Treasury bond paid an interest rate of 0.22%. The same bond today pays 4.76%.

Does it make sense to own bonds in 2022? ›

Until this year, bonds were often thought of as Steady Eddies — boring investments that could be counted on for stability and steady income. In 2022, however, as inflation and interest rates have soared, the bond market has been anything but reliable.

What are good bonds to invest in 2022? ›

Like I bonds, however, yields on TIPS can fall when the inflation rate declines.
  • Nuveen High-Yield Municipal Bond Fund. Investors in bonds generally have two choices. ...
  • Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund. ...
  • Guggenheim Total Return Bond Fund. ...
  • Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund. ...
  • Fidelity Short-Term Bond Fund.
Nov 30, 2022

What should a 70 year old invest in? ›

What should a 70-year-old invest in? The average 70-year-old would most likely benefit from investing in Treasury securities, dividend-paying stocks, and annuities. All of these options offer relatively low risk.

What are 3 very risky investments? ›

While the product names and descriptions can often change, examples of high-risk investments include: Cryptoassets (also known as cryptos) Mini-bonds (sometimes called high interest return bonds) Land banking.

What do rich people invest in? ›

Some millionaires are all about simplicity. They invest in index funds and dividend-paying stocks. They seek passive income from equity securities just like they do from the passive rental income that real estate provides. These millionaires simply don't want to spend their time managing investments.

What is the best investment right now? ›

Overview: Best investments in 2023
  1. High-yield savings accounts. Overview: A high-yield online savings account pays you interest on your cash balance. ...
  2. Short-term certificates of deposit. ...
  3. Series I bonds. ...
  4. Short-term corporate bond funds. ...
  5. Dividend stock funds. ...
  6. Value stock funds. ...
  7. REIT index funds. ...
  8. S&P 500 index funds.
Jan 1, 2023

Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

If your objective is to increase total return and "you have some flexibility in either how much you invest or when you can invest, it's better to buy bonds when interest rates are high and peaking." But for long-term bond fund investors, "rising interest rates can actually be a tailwind," Barrickman says.

Are bonds better or worse during inflation? ›

Inflation is a bond's worst enemy. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future cash flows. Typically, bonds are fixed-rate investments. If inflation is increasing (or rising prices), the return on a bond is reduced in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation.

Are bonds down in 2022? ›

We anticipate corporate bond supply to decrease in 2022, mainly due to slightly higher interest rates and the fact that most companies have already taken advantage of historically low borrowing costs.

Are bonds safer than stocks? ›

With risk comes reward.

Bonds are safer for a reason⎯ you can expect a lower return on your investment. Stocks, on the other hand, typically combine a certain amount of unpredictability in the short-term, with the potential for a better return on your investment.

Is it better to invest in bonds or CDs? ›

Both certificates of deposit (CDs) and bonds are considered safe-haven investments with modest returns and low risk. When interest rates are high, a CD may yield a better return than a bond. When interest rates are low, a bond may be the higher-paying investment.

What is the safest Treasury bond? ›

Treasury bills are considered the safest bonds in the world because the U.S. government backs them. And because of their short maturity, T-bills are seen as the safest of the safe.

Is real estate safer than Treasury bonds? ›

While no real estate investment will ever be as safe as a US Treasury bond, you can many times the returns while spreading the risk across a wide range of real estate investments. And the more you know about different types of real estate investments, the better you can protect against risk.

Can you lose money on a CD? ›

Unlike the stock market or IRAs which can lose money, you cannot lose money in a CD. There is actually no risk the account owner incurs unless you withdraw money before the account reaches maturity. In this case, the early-withdrawal penalty could eat up some or all of the interest earned.

Can the Treasury take money out of circulation? ›

The IRS belongs to the Treasury NOT the Fed. But yes they also take money "out of circulation" hence dwindling the money supply.

Why do Treasury bills go down? ›

That's because a bond's price is inversely related to yield: When demand is high and Treasury prices rise, yields fall—conversely, when demand is low Treasury prices fall and yields rise.

What was the worst bond market crash? ›

The 1994 bond market crisis, or Great Bond Massacre, was a sudden drop in bond market prices across the developed world. It began in Japan and the United States (US), and spread through the rest of the world.

Are bonds better in a bear market? ›

Bonds also are an attractive investment during shaky periods in the stock market because their prices often move in the opposite direction of stock prices. Bonds are an essential component of any portfolio, but adding additional high-quality, short-term bonds to your portfolio may help ease the pain of a bear market.

Should I cash out my 401k before a recession? ›

Don't Panic and Withdraw Your Money Too Early

Withdrawing money early from a 401(k) can result in hefty IRS tax penalties, which won't do you any favors in the long run. It's especially important for younger workers to ride out the market lows and reap the rewards of the future recovery.

What are the 3 risks for bonds? ›

Risk Considerations: The primary risks associated with corporate bonds are credit risk, interest rate risk, and market risk. In addition, some corporate bonds can be called for redemption by the issuer and have their principal repaid prior to the maturity date.

What is the biggest risk with bonds? ›

Inflation Risk

Just as inflation erodes the buying power of money, it can erode the value of a bond's returns. Inflation risk has the greatest effect on fixed bonds, which have a set interest rate from inception.

What are the most risky bonds? ›

High-yield bonds face higher default rates and more volatility than investment-grade bonds, and they have more interest rate risk than stocks. Emerging market debt and convertible bonds are the main alternatives to high-yield bonds in the high-risk debt category.

How much cash should I keep at home? ›

Jesse Cramer, founder of The Best Interest and relationship manager at Cobblestone Capital Advisors, believes less than $1,000 is ideal. “It depends person to person, but an amount less than $1,000 is almost always preferred.

Where is the safest place to keep cash at home? ›

Where to safely keep cash at home. Just like any other piece of paper, cash can get lost, wet or burned. Consider buying a fireproof and waterproof safe for your home. It's also useful for storing other valuables in your home such as jewelry and important personal documents.

Where should I keep cash at home? ›

A safe or lockbox is a good place to put cash at home for disasters and other emergencies. However, money for everyday bills is probably safer in a bank account.

Are I bonds good for seniors? ›

Generally speaking, if you want to earn more interest, you'll need to take on more risk — and for many retirees, that's not a good option, either. You can safely earn far more with I Bonds, a type of savings bond issued by the U.S. Treasury, and protect against future high inflation.

Will I bonds go up in 2023? ›

What will the May 2023 I Bond inflation rate be? The May 2023 I Bond inflation rate is projected at 2.40%* based on 4 months (out of 6 needed) CPI-U data.

Why are my bond funds losing money? ›

Declining interest rates make bond prices rise and bond yields fall. Conversely, rising interest rates cause bond prices to fall, and bond yields to rise. Over the past few months, interest rates have risen, and bond process have fallen. This is the reason why bond portfolios have experienced a decline in market value.

Do bond funds ever lose money? ›

It's important to remember that bond funds buy and sell securities frequently, and rarely hold bonds to maturity. That means you can lose some or all of your initial investment in a bond fund.

Are bonds a safe investment? ›

Although bonds may not necessarily provide the biggest returns, they are considered a reliable investment tool. That's because they are known to provide regular income. But they are also considered to be a stable and sound way to invest your money.

Are bonds safer than cash? ›

Bonds are not a short-term investment. They carry more risk than cash, but at a higher return than cash yet a much lower risk than equities, and without a specific date to use them, the higher return over multiple decades is why they're generally recommended over cash.

Do bond funds lose money when interest rates go up? ›

When interest rates rise, bond prices go down in value. Most bonds pay a fixed coupon (i.e. interest payment) and if rates go up, the only way a fixed coupon can equate to a higher interest rate is if the investor pays less for the bond.

Are bonds a good investment now 2022? ›

As a series of interest rate hikes eroded the value of bonds in 2022, it also did 2023 bond investors a couple of favors. For one, bonds are now offering more attractive interest payments to investors. At the beginning of 2022, a six-month Treasury bond paid an interest rate of 0.22%. The same bond today pays 4.76%.

Will bonds recover in 2022? ›

It has been a long time coming, but 2023 looks to be the year that bonds will be back in fashion with investors. After years of low yields followed by a brutal drop in prices during 2022, returns in the fixed income markets appear poised to rebound.

Are bonds safe if the market crashes? ›

Key Takeaways. Bonds are considered less volatile and safer investments than stocks but they can still crash.

Do bonds lose face value? ›

The price you pay for a bond may be different from its face value and will change over the life of the bond, depending on factors like the bond's time to maturity and the interest rate environment. But the face value does not change.

What is the most risky bond to invest in? ›

High-yield bonds face higher default rates and more volatility than investment-grade bonds, and they have more interest rate risk than stocks. Emerging market debt and convertible bonds are the main alternatives to high-yield bonds in the high-risk debt category.

What is the #1 safest investment? ›

For example, certificates of deposit (CDs), money market accounts, municipal bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are among the safest types of investments.

What are the safest bonds right now? ›

U.S. Treasury bonds are widely considered the safest investments on earth. Because the United States government has never defaulted on its debt, investors see U.S. Treasuries as highly secure investment vehicles.

Are bonds safer during inflation? ›

Buying inflation bonds, or I Bonds, is an attractive option for investors looking for a direct hedge against inflation.

How can I double my money in 5 years? ›

List of 10 Best Investments in India to Double Your Money Guaranteed
  1. Mutual Funds. ...
  2. National Savings Certificates (NSC) ...
  3. Equity Market. ...
  4. Kisan Vikas Patra (KVP) ...
  5. Corporate Bonds. ...
  6. Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) ...
  7. Real Estate. ...
  8. Public Provident Fund (PPF)
Jan 20, 2023

Should I keep money in savings or bonds? ›

Traditional savings and money market accounts allow you to earn interest and access your money right when you need it. Bonds, on the other hand, grow slowly in value and are worth the most after 20 to 30 years. Consider savings bonds for your long-term savings goals.

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