45.2A: Exponential Population Growth (2024)

  1. Last updated
  2. Save as PDF
  • Page ID
    14189
    • 45.2A: Exponential Population Growth (1)
    • Boundless
    • Boundless

    \( \newcommand{\vecs}[1]{\overset { \scriptstyle \rightharpoonup} {\mathbf{#1}}}\) \( \newcommand{\vecd}[1]{\overset{-\!-\!\rightharpoonup}{\vphantom{a}\smash{#1}}} \)\(\newcommand{\id}{\mathrm{id}}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \( \newcommand{\kernel}{\mathrm{null}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\range}{\mathrm{range}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\RealPart}{\mathrm{Re}}\) \( \newcommand{\ImaginaryPart}{\mathrm{Im}}\) \( \newcommand{\Argument}{\mathrm{Arg}}\) \( \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\| #1 \|}\) \( \newcommand{\inner}[2]{\langle #1, #2 \rangle}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \(\newcommand{\id}{\mathrm{id}}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\) \( \newcommand{\kernel}{\mathrm{null}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\range}{\mathrm{range}\,}\) \( \newcommand{\RealPart}{\mathrm{Re}}\) \( \newcommand{\ImaginaryPart}{\mathrm{Im}}\) \( \newcommand{\Argument}{\mathrm{Arg}}\) \( \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\| #1 \|}\) \( \newcommand{\inner}[2]{\langle #1, #2 \rangle}\) \( \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}}\)\(\newcommand{\AA}{\unicode[.8,0]{x212B}}\)

    Learning Objectives
    • Describe exponential growth of a population size

    Exponential growth

    In his theory of natural selection, Charles Darwin was greatly influenced by the English clergyman Thomas Malthus. Malthus published a book in 1798 stating that populations with unlimited natural resources grow very rapidly, after which population growth decreases as resources become depleted. This accelerating pattern of increasing population size is called exponential growth.

    The best example of exponential growth is seen in bacteria. Bacteria are prokaryotes that reproduce by prokaryotic fission. This division takes about an hour for many bacterial species. If 1000 bacteria are placed in a large flask with an unlimited supply of nutrients (so the nutrients will not become depleted), after an hour there will be one round of division (with each organism dividing once), resulting in 2000 organisms. In another hour, each of the 2000 organisms will double, producing 4000; after the third hour, there should be 8000 bacteria in the flask; and so on. The important concept of exponential growth is that the population growth rate, the number of organisms added in each reproductive generation, is accelerating; that is, it is increasing at a greater and greater rate. After 1 day and 24 of these cycles, the population would have increased from 1000 to more than 16 billion. When the population size, N, is plotted over time, a J-shaped growth curve is produced.

    45.2A: Exponential Population Growth (2)

    The bacteria example is not representative of the real world where resources are limited. Furthermore, some bacteria will die during the experiment and, thus, not reproduce, lowering the growth rate. Therefore, when calculating the growth rate of a population, the death rate (D; the number organisms that die during a particular time interval) is subtracted from the birth rate (B; the number organisms that are born during that interval). This is shown in the following formula:

    \[\dfrac{ΔN}{ΔT} =B− \dfrac{\Delta N}{\Delta T} =B−D\]

    where \(ΔN\) = change in number, \(ΔT\) = change in time, \(B\) = birth rate, and \(D\) = death rate. The birth rate is usually expressed on a per capita (for each individual) basis. Thus, B (birth rate) = bN (the per capita birth rate “b” multiplied by the number of individuals “N”) and D (death rate) = dN (the per capita death rate “d” multiplied by the number of individuals “N”). Additionally, ecologists are interested in the population at a particular point in time: an infinitely small time interval. For this reason, the terminology of differential calculus is used to obtain the “instantaneous” growth rate, replacing the change in number and time with an instant-specific measurement of number and time.

    \[\dfrac{dN}{dT}=BN DN=(BD)NdN/dT=BN DN=(BD)N\]

    Notice that the “d” associated with the first term refers to the derivative (as the term is used in calculus) and is different from the death rate, also called “d.” The difference between birth and death rates is further simplified by substituting the term “r” (intrinsic rate of increase) for the relationship between birth and death rates:

    \[\dfrac{dN}{dT}=rN \dfrac{dN}{dT}=rN\]

    The value “r” can be positive, meaning the population is increasing in size; negative, meaning the population is decreasing in size; or zero, where the population’s size is unchanging, a condition known as zero population growth. A further refinement of the formula recognizes that different species have inherent differences in their intrinsic rate of increase (often thought of as the potential for reproduction), even under ideal conditions. Obviously, a bacterium can reproduce more rapidly and have a higher intrinsic rate of growth than a human. The maximal growth rate for a species is its biotic potential, or rmax, thus changing the equation to:

    \[\dfrac{dN}{dT}=r_{max}N\]

    Key Points

    • To get an accurate growth rate of a population, the number that died in the time period (death rate) must be removed from the number born during the same time period (birth rate).
    • When the birth rate and death rate are expressed in a per capita manner, they must be multiplied by the population to determine the number of births and deaths.
    • Ecologists are usually interested in the changes in a population at either a particular point in time or over a small time interval.
    • The intrinsic rate of increase is the difference between birth and death rates; it can be positive, indicating a growing population; negative, indicating a shrinking population; or zero, indicting no change in the population.
    • Different species have a different intrinsic rate of increase which, when under ideal conditions, represents the biotic potential or maximal growth rate for a species.

    Key Terms

    • fission: the process by which a bacterium splits to form two daughter cells
    • per capita: per person or individual
    45.2A: Exponential Population Growth (2024)

    FAQs

    45.2A: Exponential Population Growth? ›

    Figure 45.2A. 1: Exponential population growth: When resources are unlimited, populations exhibit exponential growth, resulting in a J-shaped curve. When resources are limited, populations exhibit logistic growth. In logistic growth, population expansion decreases as resources become scarce.

    How do you calculate exponential population growth? ›

    Start by identifying the components of the population growth formula P=Poert, where P represents the final population, Po represents the initial population, e is the base, which is approximated as 2.71828, r represents the rate of change (as a decimal), and t represents time.

    What is the correct equation for exponential growth? ›

    Exponential growth curve is expressed by the equation dN/dt = rN. III. Any species growing exponentially under unlimited resources can reach enormous population densities in a short time.

    Is the world population growing exponentially? ›

    A common question we're asked is: is the global population growing exponentially? The answer is no. For population growth to be exponential, the growth rate would have be the same over time (e.g. 2% growth every year). In absolute terms, this would result in an exponential increase in the number of people.

    How fast is the world's population changing? ›

    Our growing population

    The world's population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.

    How to solve exponential growth? ›

    You can also calculate exponential growth using the formula f(x) = a(1 + r)x, where: The f(x) term represents the function. The a variable stands for the beginning value of your data. The r variable represents the growth rate.

    What is exponential growth calculator? ›

    Exponential Growth Calculator. is used when there is a quantity with an initial value, x 0 x_0 x0, that changes over time, t, with a constant rate of change, r. The exponential function appearing in the above formula has a base equal to 1 + r / 100 1 + r/100 1+r/100.

    How to calculate rate of growth? ›

    To calculate the percentage growth rate, use the basic growth rate formula: subtract the original from the new value and divide the results by the original value.

    How do you calculate exponential formula? ›

    An exponential function is defined by the formula f(x) = ax, where the input variable x occurs as an exponent. The exponential curve depends on the exponential function and it depends on the value of the x. Where a>0 and a is not equal to 1. x is any real number.

    What was the lowest human population ever? ›

    Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when hom*o sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.

    When did we hit 1 billion population? ›

    When Did the World Population Reach 1 Billion? Until the Industrial Revolution began, birth rates and death rates were both very high, which kept the global human population relatively stable. In fact, it took all of human history, until around 1804, to reach 1 billion people.

    When did we hit the 4 billion population? ›

    World population did not reach one billion until 1804. It took 123 years to reach 2 billion in 1927, 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974 and 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987.

    Can Earth support 11 billion? ›

    In other words, there is a carrying capacity for human life on our planet. In the International Journal of Forecasting study's median scenario, the global population is 11.1 billion in 2100, 10.4 billion in 2200 and 7.5 billion in 2300. World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100.

    What is the ideal population for Earth? ›

    What is the “ideal” population size? The question of what population size is environmentally sustainable has been addressed multiple times. While estimates have ranged from as low as 100 million, the most frequently occurring figure is 2-3 billion.

    How many people could realistically be living on the planet in 2050? ›

    World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.

    What is the formula for exponential growth factor? ›

    f(x) = abx for exponential growth and f(x) = ab-x for exponential decay. Here 'a' is the initial quantity, 'b' is the growth or decay factor, and 'x' is the time step. f(x) = a(1 + r)t, and f(x) = a(1 - r)t are for exponential growth and exponential decay respectively.

    What is the formula for a growing population? ›

    A general formula for calculating the population growth rate is Gr = N / t. Gr is the growth rate measured in individuals, N is the change in population, and t is the period of time.

    What is the formula for the exponential function? ›

    Exponential Function Formula

    An exponential function is defined by the formula f(x) = ax, where the input variable x occurs as an exponent. The exponential curve depends on the exponential function and it depends on the value of the x.

    What is the formula for exponential growth of organisms and population? ›

    Exponential Growth Equation

    Exponential growth is the relationship between population size and time. The exponential growth equation is y = a b x , where y is the quantity being tracked (such as population size), a is the starting value, b is the multiplier, also called the common ratio, and x is time.

    Top Articles
    Latest Posts
    Article information

    Author: Kieth Sipes

    Last Updated:

    Views: 5938

    Rating: 4.7 / 5 (47 voted)

    Reviews: 94% of readers found this page helpful

    Author information

    Name: Kieth Sipes

    Birthday: 2001-04-14

    Address: Suite 492 62479 Champlin Loop, South Catrice, MS 57271

    Phone: +9663362133320

    Job: District Sales Analyst

    Hobby: Digital arts, Dance, Ghost hunting, Worldbuilding, Kayaking, Table tennis, 3D printing

    Introduction: My name is Kieth Sipes, I am a zany, rich, courageous, powerful, faithful, jolly, excited person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.