40% of Student Loans Could Be in Default by 2023, and Here’s Who’s to Blame (2024)

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There’s big trouble brewing in the world of student loans, and many people don’t even realize it.

Sure, there’s the $1.4 trillion in outstanding college debt that is sure to scare your cap and gown off. But a new report by the Brookings Institution highlights a looming default crisis that could shake the U.S. economy.

Using new data on student borrowers who entered college for the first time in 2003-04, Brookings senior fellow Judith Scott-Clayton concluded that by 2023, the cumulative student loan default rate for that group will top 40%. Yep, the report says nearly half of that faction will have stopped paying back their student loans for at least nine months.

Right now, the student loan default rate for that group is around 25%. The most recent U.S. Department of Education data shows the default rate for those who took out loans in 2014 has ticked up to 11.5%.

Comparing the numbers, you can see we’re in for a major increase in defaults. But why?

For-Profit Colleges Drive the Student Loan Default Rate

Drill into the numbers further, and you’ll see that nearly 70% students who took out loans in 2004 to attend for-profit universities will likely default by 2023.

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These types of institutions include the controversial — and now shuttered — ITT Technical Institute, Corinthian College and DeVry University.

Public university student borrowers who started college in 2003-04 are projected to have a 26% default rate in the next five years.

The projected gulf in default rates comes as Education Secretary Betsy DeVos freezes Obama-era regulations on for-profit colleges, such as rules erasing student loan debt of borrowers who were defrauded by such schools.

In the conclusion of the study, Scott-Clayton recommends ramping up regulations on for-profit schools, although she doesn’t discuss specifics.

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Default Rate Is at ‘Crisis Levels’ for Black Students

The gap in default rates between students at public and for-profit schools is dramatic, but the difference in default rates among races is even more stark.

“Debt and default among black college students is at crisis levels, and even a bachelor’s degree is no guarantee of security,” Scott-Clayton wrote in the study. “Black (bachelor’s degree) graduates default at five times the rate of white (bachelor’s degree) graduates… and are more likely to default than white dropouts.”

By 2023, the default rate for black borrowers who started college in 2003-04 is projected to hit 73.3%. It’s largely due to labor market that’s less favorable for these graduates, according to a previous Brookings study.

In the previous study, Scott-Clayton recommended a pay-as-you-earn model of student loan debt repayment, in which debt service would be based on your income.

But what should you do if you’re among the millions of students we’ve discussed so far?

What Can I Do if I’m Heading Toward Student Loan Default?

First, if you’re struggling to pay back your student debt, you’re not alone. And you could be on the way to breaking free from that debt, like this guy, with a few simple tips.

Try refinancing with a site like Credible. Jammie Proctor, an engineering graduate, saved more than $6,500 on his student loans using that route.

Then, to save some extra cash, try savings apps or start a side hustle.

You may also consider moving back home if that’s an option, like Kelly Russell.

If you’ve already defaulted on your student loan, make sure you get yourself on an income-driven repayment plan. And head to the Federal Student Aid website for other tips on dealing with default.

But until there are some major regulatory changes to the country’s university system, it’s likely the need for such services will continue to grow.

Alex Mahadevan is a data journalist at The Penny Hoarder.

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40% of Student Loans Could Be in Default by 2023, and Here’s Who’s to Blame (2024)

FAQs

Who defaults on student loans the most? ›

Borrowers aged 45-59 were more likely to have their loans in default. This could reflect challenges faced by adult students who juggle multiple responsibilities, including child and elder care, employment, and education.

Who owes the majority of student debt? ›

Student loan debt is usually associated with young adults, with those 24 and younger having the lowest average balances. Average balances also increase by age group, with those 62 and older having the highest balance.

What percentage of students default on student loans? ›

Almost 7 million people, about one in six federal student loan borrowers, are in default on their loans. By all accounts, defaulting on a student loan is an upsetting and financially calamitous experience. Borrowers default when they miss 270 days' worth of payments.

Did 40 percent of student loan borrowers miss payments in October? ›

A December 2023 report from the Department of Education (ED) stated 22 million borrowers had payments due in October. Of those, 40% failed to make their payment by mid-November. That staggering figure can be partially attributed to the continued financial fallout of the pandemic.

What is the most common reason for loans to go into default? ›

A lender usually considers your loan in default if you're more than 30 days late. At this point, the lenders may report the late payment to the credit bureaus. This will instantly affect your credit score. And the better your credit score was before, the further it will drop.

What are the reasons for student loan default? ›

The survey and past research find that borrowers with a range of personal, financial, and educational challenges—such as having a lower income and greater financial need as students, as well as having a disability, experiencing a divorce, and having debt but no degree—are more likely to experience default.

What race has the most debt? ›

White people, on average, are more likely to have mortgage debt than Black people, but Black people are more likely to have credit card debt (Dettling et al., 2017).

Who is in control of student debt? ›

The office of Federal Student Aid is responsible for directly managing or overseeing an outstanding federal student loan portfolio comprised of billions of dollars in Title IV loans and representing millions of borrowers.

Who is student debt paid to? ›

When you make a payment, the money does not stop at the servicer. The servicer is simply collecting it for the federal government and managing your account status. The money is then sent to the Department of the Treasury, since that is where the student loan funding came from originally.

How many people didn't pay back student loans? ›

Nearly 9 million student loan borrowers missed their first payment after pandemic pause ended. Nearly 9 million borrowers missed their first student loan payment after the pandemic-related pause ended this fall, the Department of Education said Friday.

What is the average monthly payment on a student loan? ›

Research from EducationData.org shows that almost 45.3 million Americans hold an average federal student loan debt balance of $37,338. Combined, student loan debt in the U.S. adds up to nearly $2 trillion. According to the same data, the average student loan monthly payment is $503.

Can you go back to college with defaulted student loans? ›

"Defaulting on private student loans from a bank, credit union or other lender doesn't make you ineligible for federal financial aid. You'll still be able to submit the FAFSA and access federal grants, work-study and student loans for college or graduate school.

What if I've been paying student loans for 20 years? ›

If you have loans that have been in repayment for more than 20 or 25 years, those loans may immediately qualify for forgiveness. Borrowers who have reached 20 or 25 years (240 or 300 months) worth of eligible payments for IDR forgiveness will see their loans forgiven as they reach these milestones.

Did some of my student loans disappear? ›

Do student loans ever go away? No, student loans do not just disappear with time—at least not on their own. Student loans can stay with you longer than credit card debt and other loans.

How many days of nonpayment will cause federal student loan go into default? ›

Understanding Default

For a loan made under the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program or the Federal Family Education Loan Program, you're considered to be in default if you don't make your scheduled student loan payments for at least 270 days.

How many people default on their student loans each year? ›

Student loan delinquency rates by state
StateStudent loan delinquency rate
California7.1%
Colorado7.0%
Alaska6.9%
Maryland6.8%
47 more rows
Mar 28, 2023

How many people are behind on student loans? ›

Who has student loan debt? Roughly 43 million Americans have outstanding federal student loan debt — that's about 13% of the U.S. population, per census data. Source: Federal Student Aid, Portfolio by Age Q4 2023.

Do 25% of borrowers default within their first five years of repayment? ›

The latest studies show that 10.8% of student borrowers default on their educational loans within their first year of repayment and 25% of borrowers default within their first five years of repayment.

What percentage of students take on debt? ›

Many students borrow to fund a portion of their college expenses. Each year, 30 to 40 percent of all undergraduate students take federal student loans; 70 percent of students who receive a bachelor's degree have education debt by the time they graduate.

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