Ideally, multiple-choice exams would be random, without patterns of right or wrong answers. However, all tests are written by humans, and human nature makes it impossible for any test to be truly random.
After examining 100 tests — 2,456 questions in total — from varied sources, including middle school, high school, college, and professional school exams; driver's tests; licensing exams for firefighters and radio operators; and even newspaper quizzes, Poundstone says he found statistical patterns across all sources.
From this data, he determined several strategies to up your chances of guessing correctly on any exam, whether you're stumbling through a chemistry final or retaking your driver's test.
While Poundstone emphasizes that knowledge of the subject matter is always the best test-taking strategy and that "a guessing strategy is useful to the extent that it beats random guessing," he suggests you always guess when you're unsure. And guessing smartly will only improve your chances of being correct.
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Here are a few of Poundstone's tactics for outsmarting any multiple-choice test:
1. Ignore conventional wisdom.
You've probably been given test-taking advice along the lines of "always guess the middle answer if you don't know" or "avoid any answer that uses the words 'never,' 'always,' 'all,' or 'none'" at some point in your life. However, according to Poundstone, this conventional wisdom doesn't hold up against statistics. In fact, he found that the answers "none of the above" or "all of the above" were correct 52% of the time. Choosing one of these answers gives you a 90% improvement over random guessing, he says.
2. Look at the surrounding answers.
Poundstone found correct answer choices hardly repeated consecutively, so looking at the answers of the questions you do know will help you figure out the ones you're stuck on. For example, if you're stuck on question No. 2, but know that the answer to No. 1 is A and the answer to No. 3 is D, those choices can probably be eliminated for No. 2. Of course, "knowledge trumps outguessing," Poundstone reminds us. Cross out answers you know are wrong based on facts first.
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3. Choose the longest answer.
Poundstone also noticed that the longest answer on multiple-choice tests was usually correct. "Test makers have to make sure that right answers are indisputably right," he says. "Often this demands some qualifying language. They may not try so hard with wrong answers." If one choice is noticeably longer than its counterparts, he says it's likely the correct answer.
Some exams, like the SATs, are randomized using computers, negating any patterns usually found in the order of the answers. However, no matter their order, answer choices that are incongruent with the rest are usually wrong, according to Poundstone. He gives the following sample answers from an SAT practice test, without including the question:
A. haphazard…radical
B. inherent…controversial
C. improvised…startling
D. methodical…revolutionary
E. derivative…gradual
Because the meaning of "gradual" stands out from the other words in the right column, choice E can be eliminated. Poundstone then points out that "haphazard" and "improvised" have almost identical meanings. Because these choices are so close in meaning, A and C can also be eliminated, allowing you to narrow down over half the answers without even reading the question.
"It's hard to see how one could be unambiguously correct and the other unambiguously wrong," he says. For the record, the correct answer is D.
As an expert in test-taking strategies and patterns within multiple-choice exams, I've extensively researched and analyzed various testing scenarios. My expertise is grounded in a comprehensive review of William Poundstone's work, particularly his book "Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody." Poundstone, an authority on the subject, claims to have identified common patterns in multiple-choice tests after examining 100 tests with a total of 2,456 questions from diverse sources.
One notable aspect of Poundstone's findings is the presence of statistical patterns across different types of exams, including middle school, high school, college, and professional school exams, as well as driver's tests, licensing exams for firefighters and radio operators, and newspaper quizzes. His analysis suggests that despite the intention to create random exams, human nature and biases inevitably lead to identifiable patterns in the formulation of multiple-choice questions.
Here are key concepts and strategies presented by Poundstone to improve your chances of guessing correctly on any exam:
Disregard Conventional Wisdom:
Poundstone challenges traditional test-taking advice, such as guessing the middle answer or avoiding options with extreme words like 'never,' 'always,' 'all,' or 'none.'
Surprisingly, he found that "none of the above" or "all of the above" were correct 52% of the time, providing a substantial improvement over random guessing.
Consider Surrounding Answers:
Poundstone observed that correct answer choices rarely repeated consecutively.
Analyzing the answers of questions you do know can help eliminate potential incorrect choices for questions you're unsure about.
Opt for the Longest Answer:
Poundstone noticed a correlation between the length of an answer and its correctness.
Longer answers, he argues, often include necessary qualifying language to make them indisputably correct, making them more likely to be the right choice.
Eliminate Outliers:
Poundstone acknowledges the randomization of some exams, like the SATs, but asserts that incongruent answer choices are usually incorrect.
By examining a sample from an SAT practice test, he demonstrates how answers that deviate from the pattern can be eliminated, helping you narrow down options without even reading the question.
In summary, while Poundstone emphasizes the importance of subject matter knowledge as the best test-taking strategy, he advocates for smart guessing when uncertainty arises. These strategies, backed by statistical patterns derived from a wide range of exams, can significantly improve your chances of success in multiple-choice testing scenarios.
Myth 2: C is the best guess letter and is right more often than any other letter. C or H are right (and wrong) as often as any other answer choice. The only guess letter you don't want to use when you are completely guessing is E or K because they only show up on the math test.
Myth 2: C is the best guess letter and is right more often than any other letter. C or H are right (and wrong) as often as any other answer choice. The only guess letter you don't want to use when you are completely guessing is E or K because they only show up on the math test.
The best strategy, and the one that will maximize your overall point gain, is to pick your favorite letter and fill it in for every blind guess. Whether that letter is A, B, C, or D doesn't matter—just be sure to stick with it every single time.
You can use a combination of good test-taking techniques, such as reading the exam carefully, answering easy questions first, and using special strategies to tackle the multiple choice and true/false sections of the exam. It is also important to go into the exam well-rested, fed, and relaxed!
So, ultimately, guessing C (or any letter!) will give you the correct answer only a statistical 25% of the time (20% on the math section). Which means it's NOT true that choosing C will give you a better rate of success than choosing any other letter for your blind guessing.
Although test makers try to put the correct answers in random order, they fall into patterns. You can use that to get an edge when you have to guess a tough question. Ideally the items on such a test should stand a 50-50 chance of being true.
No… but kind of? I'm sure you've heard this at some point “if you don't know the answer, always guess C. because it's the most common correct option”. That's just a myth, and generally there are no most common answers on multiple choice tests.
One of the best multiple-choice test-taking strategies is analyzing the question for clues. When you approach a question, read it carefully and look for clues that can help you eliminate incorrect options and narrow down your choices.
As you take the test, if you don't know an answer try not to get stuck on it. Instead, answer the best way you can, or skip over the question and come back to it later. You may find it easier to answer a question you've skipped after you've answered other questions.
Most people (and tutors) tell students that, if they have no idea on a question, to just guess answer choice “C” — the middle answer on most multiple choice tests.
Let's be clear: it's not true that C is the “most common answer” on a given test. It's straight-up not, and guessing based on that is tantamount to relying on thaumaturgy to improve your SAT score. It's a poor excuse for strategy and preparedness.
I'm sure you've heard this at some point “if you don't know the answer, always guess C. because it's the most common correct option”. That's just a myth, and generally there are no most common answers on multiple choice tests.
Guessing based on a true or false pattern is better than just guessing randomly. When answering the questions that you know on a test that has a separate answer sheet, make sure that you skip the same questions on the answer sheet as you do on the test itself. This way, your answers won't become off set.
One of the best multiple-choice test-taking strategies is analyzing the question for clues. When you approach a question, read it carefully and look for clues that can help you eliminate incorrect options and narrow down your choices.
Introduction: My name is Wyatt Volkman LLD, I am a handsome, rich, comfortable, lively, zealous, graceful, gifted person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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