30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

FAQs

30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity

On June 12, 2024, the US Federal Reserve released the June 2024 Fed dot plot, which showed a projected 2.25-point interest rate cut by yearend 2026. This would reduce the fed funds target rate range from 5.25%-5.50% today to 3.00%-3.25%.

There are no sources for officially projected interest rates in five years, but the Mortgage Bankers Association does predict rates on 30-year mortgages will drop to 6% by the end of 2025. Fannie Mae predicts a 6.3% rate.

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

Will mortgage rates come down in the next 5 years? Lord: “For the rest of 2023, I predict rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 7.3%, followed by 6.1% in 2024, 5.5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

By the end of 2025, policymakers anticipate a policy rate of 4.1%, according to the median of their projections, implying an additional four quarter-of-a-percentage-point cuts next year.

Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to between 6.5% and 7% in 2024. Homebuyers might consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition when rates drop.

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Currently, over six out of 10 purchase and refinance loans are at rates below 4%, according to Freddie Mac. Those ultra-low rates are unlikely to return anytime soon—if at all—resulting in limited motivation for many homeowners to refinance.

How high will interest rates be in 2030? ›

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

Economists currently predict interest rates will stop rising in 2024. But the big question is when? Many experts believe there will likely be more rate hikes until inflation starts to ease off. So, unfortunately, things might get a *little* bit worse for homeowners before they get better.

Prediction of Mortgage Rates for 2025

Here are some predictions for 2025 from key players and industry associations in the mortgage space: Fannie Mae: 6.1% Mortgage Bankers Association: 5.9% National Association of Home Builders: 6.01%

Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the US housing market is “stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck” until 2026 — or later. The bank said home prices will stay high and go even higher. The housing shortage will persist.

The combination of high mortgage rates, steep home prices and low inventory levels are lining up to make the 2024 housing market a challenging one for both buyers and sellers. But rates have cooled a bit — if that continues throughout the year, as some experts predict, then market activity should heat up in response.

The market-implied path for base rate in May's Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report is that it will fall from 5.25 per cent to around 3.75 per cent by the end of 2026. It's worth pointing out that this forecast has risen by 0.7 percentage points on average, compared with the equivalent period in February's report.