2023 Commercial Real Estate Trends Affecting Risk and Insurance (2024)

Inflated material costs, supply chain interruptions and cybercrime have all created a challenging landscape for the commercial real estate industry.

As expenses rise, it’s understandable you may be looking for new ways to manage costs, including those within your insurance policy. There’s one caveat, though—your insurance policy is often one of the few ways to protect your business from the financial risks that could harm your bottom line.

The good news? You can still adapt to the current economy, protect your business and reduce long-term costs with a few updates to your policy. To help you protect your buildings and those who rely on them, I’ve compiled three trends that could affect the commercial real estate industry in 2023, including what you can do to prepare.

Trend 1: Increases in Building and Material Valuations

The building and property values you previously established, even as recently as one year ago, may no longer reflect current conditions due to inflation. If areas of your building suffer damage, the amount to replace or repair your structures could cost significantly more.

Including an inflation guard provision in your insurance policy and updating your property valuations can help you avoid underinsuring your facilities. An inflation guard allows you to set a percentage increase to your business’s property limits throughout the term of the policy, while an updated valuation can help make sure you have enough insurance to reduce the risk of paying out-of-pocket.

You can review your valuations and coverages with an agent to make sure it’s current for today’s environment. If you need to make updates, they can walk you through any necessary adjustments.

Trend 2: An Increase in Severe Weather Events and Business Interruptions

Fires, hurricanes, tornadoes and hailstorms can all damage or destroy your buildings. Over the past 50 years, a disaster related to weather, climate or water hazards has occurred every day, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The number of weather-related disasters increased by a factor of five during that 50-year period and resulted in $105 billion of insured losses in 2021. Throughout many regions, severe weather has become more unpredictable, and in some cases, more frequent.

With supply chain disruptions and material shortages delaying repair timelines, it may take months longer to fully restore your business than it did just a few years ago. Business income insurance can act like a form of disability insurance for your business. If your properties suffer a catastrophic loss, it can help you pay for overhead costs, employee wages, and lost profits while you rebuild.

While business income insurance has always been important for commercial real estate businesses, you may need to update your policy to account for longer recovery times. Your insurer can share what they’re seeing in your area, advise you on the right length of coverage for your business and help you develop a business continuity plan to protect your team.

Trend 3: A Rise in Cybercrime

Cyber threats are now a constant. Some estimates show a cyberattack occurs every 11 seconds. The advent of smart buildings has further exposed facilities to cyberattacks, with criminals infiltrating technology like environmental control systems as their gateway to channels that aren’t accessible from outside of the system.

There are several steps you can take to protect your business and its facilities, though. The first is to hire a security expert to assess your risks, address vulnerabilities and outline how to overcome them. It’s also important to provide security training to your staff and establish a backup system for the important data you store.

Finally, cyber liability insurance has now become just as important as other coverages like commercial property or auto insurance. This coverage can provide a safety net for your business when—not if—a cyberattack occurs. It can help protect you in cases of ransomware, data re-creation and business interruptions.

The Bottom Line

Insurance is one of the most valuable assets you own, second only to the buildings you manage. Don’t let an overlooked risk threaten what you’ve built. By being proactive, you can protect your property, reduce your costs, and improve the safety of your company in the upcoming year. Just don’t delay having the conversation. Talk with your team and insurance advisors to identify a plan that works for your business.

With adequate preparation, you can stay one step ahead of emerging risks and give yourself peace of mind in the year ahead.

2023 Commercial Real Estate Trends Affecting Risk and Insurance (2024)

FAQs

What are the CRE trends for 2023? ›

Key trends from 2023 include the dominance of multifamily properties in acquisition activity, followed by industrial assets, while office space transactions remained relatively low.

Why are commercial property insurance rates increasing? ›

Although reinsurance capacity improved in 2023 and into 2024, the cost of available reinsurance capacity remains high. The continued impact of catastrophic events is a major factor driving up costs, along with the increasing cost of capital, financial market volatility and inflation.

What is a risk in the commercial real estate industry? ›

Lenders face default risk that a borrower will not be able to make a monthly loan payment on time. Similarly, commercial property presents the risk that tenants will not be able to make timely lease payments. When lease payments are late from tenants, it can create cash flow problems for the CRE owner.

What are the top 10 commercial real estate markets in 2023? ›

The best markets for industrial real estate investment in 2023 are Columbus, Nashville, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Central Valley, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charlotte, and St. Louis.

What is the CRE prediction for 2024? ›

CRE OUTLOOK: INDUSTRIAL

Rates will stabilize at around 6.5% during the second half of 2024 – slightly above its 15-year average of 6.2%. Despite the increase in vacancies, rents will continue to increase by 4% to 8% after a year that saw rent growth exceed 15% in many markets.

What is the cap rate in CRE 2023? ›

Cap Rates Trended Upward in H2 2023 as Bond Yields Stalled

This rise in bond yields was a headwind to deal flow and caused cap rate expansion to accelerate relative to H1 2023. The average cap rate increased from 6.4% to 7% in H2 2023, with expansion across multiple property types.

What is the average commercial insurance increase in 2024? ›

Overall commercial property/casualty premiums increased slightly for all account sizes to 7% on average in the fourth quarter 2024, continuing a trend that has now last more than 6 years.

Are commercial insurance rates increasing? ›

Commercial insurance rates rose an average of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2024, compared with 5.6% in fourth-quarter 2023, according to data from insurance exchange MarketScout Corp. released Friday.

Is commercial insurance increasing? ›

According to Marsh, global commercial insurance rates increased by 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. In Q3, the change was a 3% increase. “Rates continued to be relatively consistent across almost all regions in Q4,” Marsh noted.

What are the three main elements of commercial risk? ›

I'd like to shift gears now and take a look at a helpful framework for assessing and managing risks in your business. Every potential risk has three elements that you need to consider: probability, severity, and capacity.

Is the US on the verge of a commercial real estate crisis? ›

According to a recent working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the answer is yes. And that could kick off the next major financial crisis. Based on the NBER's research, approximately 300 regional banks are at risk of collapse due to problems in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector.

What is the biggest risk of real estate? ›

Real estate investing can be lucrative but it's important to understand the risks. Key risks include bad locations, negative cash flows, high vacancies, and problematic tenants.

What is the US commercial real estate market forecast? ›

Commercial Real Estate - United States

This projection indicates a significant annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 2.66%, leading to a market volume of US$28.18tn by 2028.

What is the outlook for the economy in 2023 for commercial real estate and reits? ›

What's The REIT Outlook for 2023? In 2023, the U.S. economy will continue to be marked by mixed economic growth results, waning job gains, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates. The confluence of these factors has resulted in increased uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.

Is 2023 a good time to invest in real estate? ›

Many potential homebuyers are holding off on purchasing their next property because of two little words: interest rates. From a short-term perspective, this makes sense: Mortgage rates reached their two-decade high in 2023, with a high-average of 8.45%. However, from a long-term view, rates aren't that bad.

What is the luxury market outlook for 2023? ›

The global luxury market is projected to reach a record €1.5 trillion in 2023, an 8-10% increase from 2022. Despite robust growth, brands must focus on resilience, relevance, and renewal to overcome emerging challenges.

What are Fitch ESG market trends 2023? ›

Sustainable Fitch's five key ESG Credit Trends for 2023 are: 1. Economic and Political Challenges to Test ESG's Staying Power 2. Increased Focus on Climate Pledge Follow-Through and Implementation 3. Growing Physical Risks to Drive Short-Term Mitigation Strategies 4.

What is the trend in real estate cap rates? ›

Cap rate data aggregated across office, retail, multifamily, industrial and hotel properties from Q1 2001 through Q4 2022 averaged 6.29% with a standard deviation of 1.12%. The minimum and maximum cap rates were 4.88% and 8.87%, respectively1.

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