10 Most Recession-Proof Businesses In 2023 (2024)

In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Maurisa Potts made a bold move. She quit her job as marketing director of Northern Virginia’s Crystal City Business Improvement District to launch her own marketing and PR firm.

“Folks thought I was crazy,” Potts says now.

But she may have actually been crazy smart. Fifteen years after exiting her full-time job in Crystal City, Potts is flourishing as founder and CEO of Spotted MP, based in New Alexandria, an unincorporated community south of Alexandria, Virginia. She and her two full-time employees operate the marketing and PR firm.

Not only has Potts proven to be a recession-resilient entrepreneur, but she’s immersed in a small business sector that’s one of the most recession-proof in the U.S. for 2023, according to a Forbes Advisor analysis.

The analysis, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Google Trends, shows PR firms rank second among the country’s most recession-proof small businesses. Bookstores top the list. Following PR firms in the ranking are interior design services at No. 3, staffing agencies at No. 4 and marketing consulting services at No. 5.

Key Study Findings

• Bookstores, PR agencies and interior design services are most likely to succeed during a recession in 2023
• Restaurants, women’s clothing boutiques and vacation rentals are among the 10 least recession-proof businesses
• PR agencies, marketing consulting services and food trucks are among the most consistent performers over the past 15 years
• Breweries, which have grown nearly 500% as a category over the past two decades, are in the bottom 50% of recession-proof businesses

10 Most Recession-proof Businesses in 2023

Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and indication of popularity from Google search trends, Forbes Advisor assessed 60 small business types and determined which of them are most and least recession-proof in 2023. We assigned each business type a score based on its performance across several categories: Growth in number of businesses during the Great Recession and the latter part of the pandemic, growth in wages during the same periods, and estimated startup costs.

PR agencies like Potts’ recorded at least some growth in all categories, a low startup cost (under $10,000) and high wage growth during the Great Recession (+23%). But, according to our analysis, bookstores shine brightest among recession-proof small businesses.

At 43%, bookstores saw the biggest increase in the number of businesses during the latter part of the pandemic. Coupled with a moderate startup cost, bookstores also enjoyed steady wage growth during both the Great Recession (+13%) and the latter part of the pandemic (+16%), making this type of business the most recession-proof of all.

In 2022, The New York Times reported that more than 300 new independent bookstores had popped up across the country in the previous couple of years, calling this “a surprising and welcome revival after an early pandemic slump.”

The Financial Times attributes the recession-proof nature of the book business to the fact that books are relatively cheap “and yield an impressive bang for their buck in terms of entertainment.”

10 Least Recession-proof Businesses in 2023

At the other end of the recession-proof spectrum are furniture stores.

Furniture stores rank last on our list due to the high startup cost (up to $200,000) and unimpressive changes in the number of new businesses late in the pandemic (+2%) and during the Great Recession (-12%). Next in line are women’s clothing boutiques and taxi or rideshare services.

Marc Werner, founder and CEO of the Plantation, Florida-based GhostBed mattress brand, says furniture and mattress stores generally lose business during economic downturns as consumers delay or skip purchases of what are considered nonessential and sometimes pricey items.

“In my 20-plus years in this industry, it’s known that we are the first durable goods retailer to experience a decline in sales during a recession,” says Werner.

One reason, according to Werner: Furniture and mattress purchases are tied to the health of the housing market, which often takes a financial blow during recessions. Werner notes, however, that furniture and mattress stores are among the first businesses to bounce back after a recession.

Despite the rocky track record of furniture and mattress retailers, GhostBed has grown during the pandemic, adding employees and expanding into new space, Werner says.

“As the housing market recovers, consumers may be more likely to purchase new mattresses and furniture,” he explains. “Mattresses and furniture are long-term investments, and consumers may be willing to spend more on these products when they perceive that they are getting a good value for their money.”

Is Passion for a Business Enough to Succeed?

If your heart's not in it, your money maybe shouldn’t be in it, either. Passion is certainly important when it comes to starting your own business, and it’s equally important to examine historical data to forecast how your business might perform during a recession.

These five popular, passion-driven businesses may not be recession-proof in 2023 due to rather high startup costs and low historical growth during economic slumps:

• Breweries, No. 22: -6% growth late in the pandemic; estimated startup cost exceeding $1 million.
• Florists, No. 19: -1% growth late in the pandemic and -14% growth during the Great Recession; estimated startup cost up to $75,000.
• Bakeries, No. 17: 5% growth late in the pandemic; estimated startup cost up to $75,000.
• Photography studios, No. 16: -3% growth during the Great Recession; estimated startup cost up to $50,000.
• Jewelry making, No. 15: -9% growth during the Great Recession; estimated startup cost up to $50,000.

Of course, your passion may end up generating a pretty nice profit, despite sour economic conditions.

Look at Austin, Texas, entrepreneur Kendra Scott, for example.

From her spare bedroom, she launched a jewelry-making business with only $500 in 2002. The business has survived the Great Recession (her first store opened in 2010) and the pandemic. In fact, the Kendra Scott brand now operates more than 115 stores and is valued at more than $1 billion.

As of June 2022, Forbes estimated Scott’s net worth at $580 million.

The Great Recession “for me was the greatest gift,” Scott told an interviewer in 2015. “If that had been status quo and there wasn’t a big shakeup, the business wouldn’t be where it is now. It’s the struggles that can be really, really scary that you can find opportunity in.”

Bottom Line

While it’s unclear whether a recession will happen in 2023, if you’re looking to start your own business, it’s smart to choose a venture that will likely prove successful even during a recession. But, as Scott’s ascent demonstrates, a recession might actually be a business spark.

Methodology

We used data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to assign each business type a score in the following categories:

• Percentage change in number of businesses and average weekly wages during the Great Recession (measured from Q1 2008 to Q4 2010)
• Percentage change in the number of businesses and average weekly wages during the latter part of the pandemic (measured from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022).
• Estimated average startup cost (compiled from a range of industry-specific sources and designed to focus on minimum ranges of capital needed to start a certain business type).